Taiwan has been a focal point of tensions between China and the USA.
The US has called for a commitment by the US to defend Taiwan from Chinese attack. However, a war with China over Taiwan could prove devastating.
The US should and can help Taiwan increase its defense capabilities and deter China.
Daniel L. Davis, a senior fellow at Defense Priorities, is a former US Army lieutenant colonel.
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The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that US Special Forces (Marines) had been secretly training Taiwanese troops in counter-invasion tactics.
The Global Times, a semi-official mouthpiece for the Chinese Communist Party, warned Friday that the US presence in Taiwan would accelerate "preparations to military actions" and that if "war breaks out in Taiwan Straits", those US will be the first to be eliminated. The first to be exterminated will be military personnel.
This latest development, along with an increase in Chinese warplanes landing into Taiwan's Air Defense ID Zone, continues a trend towards rising tensions between China and the United States over Taiwan.
As I've written before, there are virtually no scenarios in which the US is not severely damaged in a conflict with China. In fact, in the worst case scenario, we could be in a nuclear war.
Shiyu or Lion Islet, Taiwan's offshore islands can be seen in front the Chinese city of Xiamen on April 20, 2018. Carl Court/Getty Images
The White House must consider the consequences of entering into an unwinnable conflict before a crisis occurs. Even more important, the US must identify non-kinetic ways to protect our country's security and future prosperity in case of a Taiwanese crisis.
There are alternatives to war, which could help strengthen our security against China. These more prudent options are not popular in Washington.
On Tuesday, Secretary of the Navy Carols Del Toro addressed the Naval Academy's midshipmen. He stated that it was the Navy's "ultimate obligation to deter [China]" from their goals.
In essence, the secretary wants to make the US armed force the de facto security force in Taiwan. This aspiration should not be considered US policy.
Del Toro isn’t the only one who believes we should defend Taiwan. However, a growing chorus calls for such a policy change.
Rep. Guy Reschenthaler was a sponsor of the Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act, which would allow "the president to use force to defend Taiwan from a direct attack." This provocation would increase the likelihood of war, and not decrease it. The promise of US protection would perversely encourage Taiwan to do less for its security.
A BGM-71 anti tank missile was fired by Taiwanese troops during military exercises in central Taiwan on July 16, 2020. AP Photo/Chiang Yingying
Benjamin Friedman, my colleague at Defense Priorities policy director, said on Thursday that rather than leading Taiwanese authorities into believing the United States will fight China for them, Washington should push Taiwan to increase its self-defense capabilities, especially radar, mobile anti-ship, and anti-air missiles. This would make an amphibious assault on the island more expensive.
The paramount imperative of America in the Indo-Pacific is to avoid unnecessary wars with China, and preserve American security and economic prosperity. A war with China would seriously harm both.
Encourage Taiwan to make investments in its defense and to acquire the types of weapons and training that will cause the most severe damage to China should Beijing attempt to attack. This is the best way to stop China from attacking.
However, we must be honest and open about the possibility that China will strike Taiwan regardless of how high their costs. It is crucial that the United States does not get drawn into a no win war with China if Beijing chooses that path.
Our military will suffer greatly if we choose to fight a war for pride or a clear affinity for democratic ideals. It may not stop Taiwan being captured, but it could take decades to recover from military losses. In the worst case scenario, things could spiral outof control and lead to a nuclear exchange.
We have nothing to lose by fighting China, but we can gain a lot from refusing to be drawn into an unwinnable conflict.
A soldier carries a surface to-air missile to a launcher in a drill at an airbase in southern Taiwan on August 24, 2010. Nicky Loh/Reuters
China will attack Taiwan and they will have an albatross about their neck for many years, much like we had during the Vietnam War. Taiwan's defense strategy includes indefinite guerilla warfare to counter the Chinese invaders. Even if China's attack is successful, they will still be losing a lot of warships and combat aircraft as well as troops.
Even if the PLA was successful, it would be severely damaged and it would take more than a decade for its strength to return to pre-invasion levels. It would be easier to convince Europe and other Asian countries to join us in forming a balancing alliance, which would complicate Beijing's economic goals for the next decades.
This point is reinforced by me strongly: refusing to enter into a war with China over Taiwan, will increase our relative advantage over China. Their military would suffer from heavy combat losses, but ours and all of our allies would be strong.
Therefore, we should do all that is possible to help Taiwan improve its self-defense capabilities and urge their political leaders to keep the status quo.
China desires Taiwan's eventual reunification, but Beijing prefers it without using force. The chances of war across Strait are low as long as the status quo remains intact and the PLA does not incur sufficient costs to invade Taiwan.
Daniel L. Davis, a senior fellow at Defense Priorities, is a former lieutenant colonel of the US Army and was deployed to combat zones four times. He is also the author of "The Eleventh Hour for 2020 America." Follow him @DanielLDavis1.
