Daniel Craig plays James Bond, Christoph Waltz is Blofeld in NO TIMES TO DIE Nicole Dove, courtesy MGM and EON
No Time to Die was launched in North America with a Friday-Sun launch of $56.007 million. This is lower than Jason Bourne's $59 million (2016), Mission: Impossible: Fallout ($61 million (2018) and expectedly below F9's launch of $70 million ($70 million) this June. It's also the lowest 007 opening since Daniel Craigs Casino Royale (40 million in 2006), and there were fewer tickets sold than any James Bond movie since Pierce Brosnans Tomorrow Never Dies (1997, $25 million adjusted). It is tied with Casino Royale ($56million adjusted, but without IMAX, PLF, or 3-D options) as well as GoldenEye ($26million in 1995/$56million adjusted). It is still higher than the $55 million launch price of Mission: Impossible-Rogue Nation, which was $195 million in summer 2015.
It was a joke to think that Daniel Craig's fifth and final James Bond film would save the domestic box-office. James Bond has always been in an "always the bridesmaid, never bride" situation. GoldenEye was launched with $26 million, a week after Ace Ventura's When Nature Calls debut with $38 million in November 1995. Tomorrow Never Dies earned $125 million (hence the legs), from a $25million debut in December 1997. This was right alongside Titanic's $600 million voyage. Casino Royale was never a top weekend film, with $160 million coming from a $40m debut. Its debut was in the shadow George Miller's Oscar-winning Happy Feet ($198M from a $48M debut). No Time to Die was released one week after Venom: Let There Be Carnage, which opened with $90 million.
Skyfall rose to $90 million in November 2012, and grew to $304 million domestically (and $1.11billion globally). That was, however, a lightning-in-a-bottle moment spurred by rave reviews, white-hot buzz, an Oscar-winning Adele theme song, free publicity centered on the 50th anniversary of Dr. No and the sheer lack of comparative tentpole competition for months. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part II would make $295 million domestically and $819 millions worldwide in November. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey would make $304 million/$1billion in December. But those were franchises that were more for the fans. Other than that, Brosnan-era James Bond films have been out-grossed domestically by knock-offs (Tom Cruises Mission: Impossible films and Matt Damons Bourne sequels), or comedic spoofs ("Mike Myers Austin Powers sequels each topped $200 million domestically in 1999 and 2002).
Pierce Brosnan, an Irish actor, plays the role of 007, while Michelle Yeoh, a Malaysian actress, plays Wai Lin. They were on location in Thailand to film "Tomorrow Never Dies", a James Bond movie, 1997. They are here handcuffed together during the motorcycle chase sequence. (Photo by Keith Hamshere/Getty Images). Getty Images
The James Bond series' strength has been its consistency, strength, and cultural relevance throughout the 40-year history of the industry. Although it was out-grossed by Die Hard, Batman Forever and The Matrix and The Bourne Ultimatum and Iron Man, the 007 franchise has been commercially successful in relation to these expectations. This is partly because the film stayed true to itself, despite being out-hyped by the Raiders of the Lost Ark and Batman Forever.
Although $56 million may be disappointing, it could not prove fatal. Non-Covid times, $75million is what I would have expected for an April 2020 direct sequel to Spectre that was decently received but not spectacular. Using the 85% Covid figure, even a $60m launch with a similar weekend multiplier as Mission: Impossible – Fallout and Spectre would have been fine. The reviews (84% fresh with a 7.5/10 on Rotten Tomatoes) and A- Cinemascore grade suggest decent legs even if No Time to Die wasnt the only game in town for months in terms of not a horror/sci-fi/superhero/animated tentpole offerings. Covid and older audiences were more likely to see the film than those who don't usually race to the theaters on their opening weekend.
If that is the only difference between a debut of $56 million and a launch of $70 million, then the legs will bear it out. James Bond appeals to a younger and more casual fandom audience than other IP-specific franchises. Therefore, we hope that pandemic-weary older audiences will be more open to seeing a show on a weekday or matinee in the weekend six. It will still gross domestically over/under $195million if it does not end up like Skyfall and Mission: Impossible-Rogue Nation. It will be worth $155 million if it reaches Spectre (200 million/$70million) or Jason Bourne (162 million/$59million). This film is distributed by MGM North America and Universal internationally, unlike the four previous Daniel Craig films. It's also available overseas. That's the next post.
Javier Bardem and Daniel Craig in Sam Mendes' Skyfall MGM and Sony
Only 25% of IMAX auditoriums saw the film, while Universal territories saw a 32% decline and MGM markets saw a drop of -42%. The film opened in France with $10.1million, which is in line with Skyfall. It also opened with $5 million less than Venom 2. The U.K., Ireland and Ireland both added $20.5 million to their weekend two grosses. This dropped 28% while continuing to outperform Spectre's $70.9 million cume. Generally speaking, most holdover markets retained their number one ranking. Venom 2 expands mostly overseas next weekend. The grosses are in line with Skyfall (73% of its $1.11billion cume overseas) and Spectre (75% of its $881m cume overseas). Over the next few weeks, it will have to compete with Venom 2 (in territories where it has not yet opened) and Dune. But so far, so good.
The film grossed $89.5 million internationally, which brings its total foreign box office to $257million and its global sum to $313.2 millions worldwide. It is the first movie of the pandemic-era not in the MCU (Black Widow or Shang-Chi), to reach $300 million worldwide. It will open in China on October 29th, but if the film keeps up its momentum, even an $83million gross (equaling Spectre) could be a cherry on top. If you do the math right, No Time to die would have an overseas total of $436 million if it had a normal rate. The only two major markets that are left are Australia (November 11th) and China (October 29th). Add $15 million to Australia (Spectre made $25 million in 2015), and $70 million to China, and you'll have an overseas total of $520 million.
Even if you add $160 million domestic, that's still a good $680 million. If I underestimate the film potential in Australia and China, we could see a global cume comparable to F9 ($716 millions). Is that enough to allow the expensive ($250 million plus marketing costs) and long-delayed tentpole, which is expected to break even in theatrical production? It may not. However, the James Bond series has had a strong post-theatrical afterlife. I would imagine that everyone who wants to see it in theaters, but doesnt feel comfortable doing so, will eventually be able to watch it on VOD and DVD. Although No Time to Die won't end Daniel Craig's incredible run, it could be enough to allow James Bond to (all together now).
