Both American League Division series of the MLB playoffs for this year resume Sunday, following a Saturday travel day.
The Houston Astros are expected to win Game 3 against the Chicago White Sox thanks to their dominating offense. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays will face the Boston Red Sox at Fenway with a 1-1 tie.
What are the key points to each series? What are the Game 1 & 2 moments that we still adore? Who do we think will be in the ALCS? We asked our ESPN MLB experts for their opinions on the current situation and what they think will happen next.
How can the White Sox win their series against the Astros again?
Buster Olney says the lineup is capable of producing big, crooked runs for the White Sox. In this moment, they have that -- more White Sox joining Tim Anderson to smash hits. Jose Abreu's big fly in Game 3 would give them the boost they need.
Jesse Rogers. Tony La Russa said recently that he wouldn't tell his club that it had to sweep a series, but that's exactly what his team needs to get ahead. The White Sox can win if he can reduce it to one game, Game 3. Sunday's contest can be won. The Sox will be making young Astros pitcher Luis Garcia uncomfortable because it's their first home playoff match since 2008. The Chicago Game 3 starter Dylan Cease is a pitcher with stuff that rivals any in the AL. There's not much of a drop-off for the home team.
Joon Lee: Jesse is right on. Cease must give the White Sox a strong start to set the stage for a comeback. These numbers are clear. Alex Speier, Boston Globe's 2017 researcher, found that the overwhelming majority of comebacks after 2-0 deficits began with dominant performances from their starters. The nine starters had a combined ERA 1.63.
David Schoenfield. Going home, where they went 53-28, compared to 40-40 on the road, will help. But, I wonder if it's what many were expecting -- that the White Sox cruised through a weak division. They were 10-16 against four AL playoff teams, 2-5 against the Astros and now are 2-7 against Houston. The key question is: Who will La Russa put his trust in from the bullpen? And, most importantly, can he trust Craig Kimbrel. Although the White Sox have the best deep pen in the majors with the second-highest strikeout rate, Kimbrel has been the main setup man to Liam Hendriks. He has struggled since moving from the Cubs and gave up the two big hits in Game 2. To win this series, the White Sox will need to have a dominant Kimbrel and Hendriks.
What team now has the advantage, with the Red Sox and Rays tied at 1-1?
Olney: These first two games highlighted the issues Alex Cora is having in his rotation. Chris Sale's velocity dropped significantly, and the depth of the bullpen was being tested. The Rays are a better, more talented team. Cora excels in such situations, finding solutions and heroes. Tanner Houck in Game 2. His willingness to quickly yank E.Rod (and Sale) in the first two games shows he could use them as openers against a Tampa Bay lineup which mashes righties and uses the depth of his staff, which is primarily right-handed. This series is a chance for the Red Sox to be victorious.
Rogers: At first, I thought the Rays had the advantage. Then I remembered how great Nathan Eovaldi was at home in the AL Wild Card match. He rides the wave to another great start, and Boston is now in control of the series.
Lee: The Rays have a slight advantage. I believe the team's depth will shine through the rest. Boston was without Tanner Houck and Nick Pivetta, so it was necessary for the Rays to have Tanner Houck and Tanner Pivetta.
Schoenfield: The Rays but it's close to Big Game Nate in Game 3 for Red Sox. Fenway is a favorite spot for the Red Sox -- they have the highest home OPS in major leagues -- so they must feel comfortable about facing the Tampa Bay bullpen. Drew Rasmussen is shining since joining the Tampa Bay rotation. He has a 1.46 ERA in his eight final starts but he also topped out at 5 innings so Kevin Cash will still need at least 4 innings from his bullpen. His trust circle has likely narrowed by a few pitchers. However, the Red Sox might be struggling in Game 4, which could be Eduardo Rodriguez, who is on short rest. And then, if there's Game 5, will Alex Cora return to Chris Sale? The final result is that I have more faith than Boston in the Rays' pen, which gives them an edge over the other three games.
Play 2:14 Red Sox rip off the cover of the ball in comeback game 2 win Xander Bogards, Alex Verdugo and Kike Hernandez, J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers and Kike Hernandez all scored home runs in Red Sox's 11-6 victory over the Rays.
Which surprise have you found most surprising?
Rogers: It is hard to overlook the White Sox starters being beaten up in Houston. Lance Lynn was not a Cy Young candidate, while Lucas Giolito gave away four runs in five innings. Two scored after he was out. This was the team's strength throughout the season, but it fell short in Houston in two of its two starts. It's still perplexing that Lynn threw 97% fastballs at the fastest fastball-hitting team a few days later.
Olney: I was not surprised by the defense of the Astros. They finished second in majors for defensive runs saved. Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa have been great in preserving the White Sox offense.
Lee: Boston's bullpen has performed better than expected in the first two games. Strong performances from Tanner Houck and Ryan Brasier, HanselRobles, Adam Ottavino, Matt Barnes have helped the Red Sox. The bullpen is crucial if Boston hopes to reach the first round.
Schoenfield: Kik Hernndez tied the all-time postseason record with five hits and four extra base hits in one game. This is something that I doubt anyone had on their postseason predictions. We see that Boston's offense is strong enough to win this title, and has been underrated throughout the season.
Can anybody stop the Astros offense?
Rogers: Houston will be tough to beat. They can be controlled on the road, but they will not be controlled in Texas. Teams will have to outscore them, especially if McCullers is there.
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Lee: To stop the powerful Astros offense, the White Sox pitching team will have to make a quick turnaround and look more like they did in the regular season.
Schoenfield: They were the majors' top-run-getter for a reason. The Astros are able to use their left-handed power, Yordan Alvarez being back in full health after last season's postseason, and Kyle Tucker as a force. This makes it difficult for them to manage this lineup. It will take a tremendous performance to stop it.
Which moment was the most memorable for the ALDS?
Olney: Here's a collection: Hernandez's Game 2 heroics, which led to the Red Sox's comeback. Five hits in six at bats, three doubles and a home run. They wanted him last season because of his postseason experience and the accumulated toughness. And they got a serious return on their investment Friday night.
Rogers: I'll vote No. Randy Arozarena, who stole home the winning run with a LEFT-HANDED batter at his plate, was 10000. It was amazing.
Lee: Lee, I'm also going with Arozarena. Although I'm not sure if his cowboy boots were superpowerful, these are the moments that make postseason baseball so special.
Schoenfield: Could you please steal my home straight? It's a great memory.
After four games, who are your ALCS picks now?
Rogers: Houston is a great team right now. The Astros have no weaknesses and are 2-0 ahead with Game 5 at home. Boston is showing Alex Cora resilience. The series' momentum-shifting moment is Game 2 when Boston roars back in victory. Boston rides the wave of the ALCS.
Olney: I will stick with the Astros and Rays. The Rays are still the best team.
Lee: I'll take Houston or Tampa Bay. Houston should be able pull off the three remaining games. Boston's inexperienced pitching staff will eventually backfire on the Red Sox.
Schoenfield: In my initial picks, I had Astros in four and Rays five in my first picks. But I'm going to Rays and Astros in five each and Astros and Astros three in the third. Luis Garcia will spin a gem in Game 3 for the Astros and the right-handed power relievers for Chicago to close the door on Chicago’s righty-heavy lineup.
