The beginning of President Joe Biden's term was a comfortable one. His average job approval rating was 52.3 percent on July 20, which marked the six-month anniversary his inauguration. His average disapproval rating was 42.5 percent. These numbers are fairly representative of his first semester.
The honeymoon period ended in the latter part of summer. Due to the coronavirus delta, there was a spike in deaths and cases in July. There were also renewed concerns about inflation and the economy. Biden's approval rating dropped by 2.3 percentage points (to 50.0%) by August 15, while his disapproval rating rose by 1.3 percent (to 43.8%). The Taliban took control of Kabul, Afghanistan's capital, on the same day as the American withdrawal. This marked a dramatic collapse of Afghanistan's government. The Taliban takeover and subsequent humanitarian crisis seemed to accelerate Biden's decline in popularity. On Aug. 30, Biden's job performance was disapproved by more Americans than it was approved. His approval/disapproval ranged from 45.0 percent to 49.1% on Sept. 8.
We speculated that Biden's approval rating could recover soon, particularly after the news cycle had moved on from Afghanistan. Since presidents tend to return to the mean in their approval ratings, fluctuations in the approval rating of former President Donald Trump were particularly short-lived. Biden's August was difficult for him, but he has not shown any signs of improvement in his approval ratings since then. On Oct. 5, Biden's approval/disapproval spread was at 44.8 percent to 47.9%. This approval rating is actually the lowest of his presidency.
Despite the fact that Afghanistan is no longer in the headlines, Biden's approval rating has not improved. Closed-captioning data from Internet Archives Television News Archive shows that the three main cable-news networks (CNN and Fox News) mention Afghanistan an average of 1,320 times per day. They mentioned Afghanistan in an average of 403 clips per days, however, from Sept. 2 to Sept. 30. This is still a higher percentage than Afghanistan was mentioned in the news prior to the Talibans' takeover. The average number of clips that were shown on the networks about Afghanistan was 56 per day between Aug. 1 and Aug. 11.
This supports the argument that Biden's approval rating declined not because of Afghanistan. It was likely that it was caused by the resurgent pandemic or dissatisfaction about the economy. Or even natural post-honeymoon regression to a more realistic mean in these politically charged times. It could be explained as a combination of many factors.
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Biden may not be able to find an easy solution. Biden may not see a significant improvement in his COVID-19 situation. According to The New York Times data, while the average number of COVID-19 cases has dropped since mid-September according to rolling averages, Biden's average approval rating regarding the coronavirus issue has remained constant. (As Oct. 5, 50.5 per cent of Americans were satisfied with his handling of the pandemic. 40.7 percent disapproved.
Although case numbers are still high in absolute terms (higher that at any time in the pandemic except last winter), Americans might not be ready to give Biden credit yet. However, this does not mean that Biden will not be given a boost politically if the pandemic is over.
Biden could also be affected by other news events, including whether Democrats in Congress approve their budget reconciliation and infrastructure bills, or if the government defaults. We will have to wait to see how Biden's approval rating changes going forward. This will be crucial for, among other things, assessing the amount of support Democrats will get in 2022 midterm elections. Biden's approval rating is lower than any president since 1945. He has an unusually large hole to dig himself from if he wants to regain his popularity.
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