Boris Johnson, two months after being forced to cancel Christmas 2020 in the last minute, committed to a prudent and cautious roadmap out of lockdown. This was to recognize the changing epidemiology of the virus. But our memories are fleeting. All social distancing requirements and face-covering restrictions were removed in England on 19 July. Also, there was no limit to the number of people attending indoor or outdoor events. As the summer progressed international travel restrictions were relaxed and fully vaccinated individuals and children were no longer required for isolation if they had come into contact with anyone who had contracted Covid-19.
Many people in England and elsewhere watched in amazement. The new Delta variant was already causing a surge in vaccine cases in Israel, which is a world leader in vaccinations. England saw an increase in cases. 54% of the population had been fully vaccinated as of 19 July. CNN captured a wide view and called England's approach an experiment. A leader in the Irish Times prefaced this word with reckless. The large rise in cases some had feared would occur after 19 July did not materialize. Sage modeling subgroup says this was due to a slower return to pre-pandemic behavior, school holidays, and continued home-working.
However, cases have remained steady and flat throughout the autumn. There have been nearly 3m confirmed cases in England of Covid-19 since June. This seems to have created a perception in England that the virus has become more common than it is alarming. There are currently more than 500 confirmed deaths each week in England. Additionally, there are between 150,000 to 200,000 cases of Covid-19. Many of these will eventually become long Covid. These numbers are not often discussed. They are a necessary cost to allow the majority of people to live a normal lifestyle again. However, many who are clinically fragile and their families are not able to do this.
Common perceptions are that England has escaped the pandemic better than others through vaccination or that other countries are in the exact same boat as us. England is home to one of the highest levels of Covid burdens in Europe. This is measured by the number of new cases per person every week. Only the Baltic states of Serbia and Romania have lower rates. England's case rates are 8-10 times higher than those of Spain and Portugal, which have the highest performance countries.
The situation is worse when measured in terms of death rates. High death rates are seen in countries like Bulgaria and Romania that have weaker health systems or low vaccination coverage for their elderly citizens. Despite this, England still ranks lower in Covid deaths than its western European and Nordic neighbors. England's death rate of 22 deaths per million in the past two weeks is nearly six times that of Finland (four deaths per thousand) and Germany (10 deaths per mille.
England is not the only country that has been affected by the Delta variant. It now accounts for nearly all European cases. Why is it that our nearest neighbours are experiencing better health outcomes, despite having their children back in school and their students back at university. Strategy is the key. The difference is that England chose a vaccine only strategy. France, Spain, Germany and other countries have followed a vaccine plus strategy.
Both strategies require that as many people as possible are vaccinated. Much was made earlier this year about our quick start to the vaccination program. England is falling behind in this area. By October 1, 67% of the country's entire population had been vaccinated. This is far less than in countries like Portugal (85%), Spain (79%), Denmark (75%), and Ireland (74%). Importantly, many European countries began to vaccinate teens in the early summer. This ensured that a large number would be protected once schools reopened.
Let's move on to the plus side. You can still get vaccine passports and face coverings in western Europe. TousAntiCovid is a routine app that's used in restaurants and bars across France. Anyone who visited France this summer will be familiar with it. In France, Germany and other countries, masks are mandatory in public places and public transport. These measures in England will not be implemented unless the government follows its Plan B. Many countries have also invested heavily in ventilation and filtering, while others have made CO2 monitors mandatory in certain settings like hospitality venues. Although England recently installed CO2 monitors in schools, it used to advise people to open their windows whenever possible. To reduce the number of cases in children, schools across Europe have various protections including bubbles, masks, and distancing. These measures were scrapped in England, but some schools and local councils are reintroducing them to reduce the high number of cases in schools.
Not for the first, England is Europe's odd man out. Spi-M, a subgroup of Sage modeling, warned of new surges this fall and suggested that a relatively small number of measures might be enough to stop sustained growth. This advice was ignored once more by the government. England could look to Europe and see that they already do this. They have shown that it is possible to keep cases low and be completely open. Its vaccine plus. It works. It works.
