It is almost as if the electric grid is creaking under the weight of the future. Two forces are bringing it to its breaking point, often literally.
Climate change is one force. It can also exacerbate disasters that knock down portions of the grid. Hurricane Ida, for example, knocked New Orleans offline as a heat wave hit. Extreme weather can also cause a sudden spike in energy demand when the grid is not able to supply it. This happened last winter with the Texas freeze and subsequent power failure.
Ironically, the other force is the large deployment of renewable energy. This is the best way to combat climate change and prevent these types of disasters. This will require a fundamental overhaul of the way that the grid works. Coal and gas power plants produce continuous power from burning fuel. The amount of fuel they burn can be adjusted based on electricity demand. However, the generation of both solar and wind energy is unpredictable. The sun does not shine at night and the wind blows to make turbines turn.
This can lead to a mismatch in supply and demand. Think of a heat wave. Your house gets hot after you get home from work at six o'clock in the evening. So, you turn on the AC. Everyone else is doing the same thing. As soon as people return from work, this is when they use the most energy. They start to cool their homes, cook, and run clothes washers and dryers.
However, by 6 p.m., the sun has set and solar panels have stopped producing power. The wind can also stop blowing at any moment, which leaves a gap between generation and demand. The ability of utilities to charge huge batteries with solar power at night and store it for customers who need it later in the day is still very limited.
This places enormous stress on the grid which must maintain a constant balance. Most utilities have sophisticated systems that predict when demand will rise and fall, so this problem is not a concern. If they need more power, they can purchase it from nearby utilities. They can also burn more fossil fuels to achieve that balance, but that emits more carbon. If there is an unexpected rise in demand, and the utility does not have the power to handle it, it must restore balance by cutting down on demand.
Utilities won't be able quickly to generate more energy from burning fossil fuels as renewables take over the energy mix. A grid that relies on intermittent renewable energy will have to be more flexible in order to compensate.
Kelly Sanders, a University of Southern California environmental engineer, studies the evolution of the grid. She is currently researching precooling. This is where home users would crank up the AC early in the morning when the grid is generating clean solar energy. They would shift peak demand away form the return-to home rush. Sanders says that you can get many electricity customers to use more electricity when the sun shines, and decrease their usage when it goes dark. This aligns our behavior better with the availability and quality of solar and wind.
Heating would be the same. Heating demand spikes in colder regions of the US at 6-7 AM, when people wake up in freezing homes. People could begin to heat their homes as early as 4 AM. Sanders imagines that local officials may also adjust the operation of critical infrastructure to match the availability of renewable power. For example, a region might time its treatment of drinking water according to the amount of solar energy available.
