The future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady returns to Foxborough to take on his former team, New England Patriots, Sunday Night Football. After many doubted his ability to perform at such a high level, Brady's Tampa Bay debut was one of his best statistical seasons. Brady's first 20 seasons in the Patriots saw him throw for an incredible 74,571 yards, 541 TDs, and he also won six Super Bowl rings.
In Tampa Bay, Brady did not miss a beat. The Buccaneers' first Super Bowl victory since 2002 was achieved thanks to his 4,633 yard passing and 40 touchdowns. Brady is already at the edge of making history, having amassed 1,087 yards passing and 10 touchdowns this year. Drew Brees (80.358) is Drew's closest rival and Brady is just 68 yards from surpassing him as the NFL's leading passer. Ben Roethlisberger (61,149), Matt Ryan (56,474) and Aaron Rodgers (51,894) are the next highest active players on this all-time list. It is poetic justice that Brady will be able to reach yet another career milestone at Gillette Stadium.
The matchup between the Patriots and Buccaneers is so big, Caesars Sportsbook has special props for it. Let's look at three props and one bet.
Tom Brady O/U 304.5 passing yards
The Buccaneers' offense line has done an outstanding job protecting Brady. This unit has one the lowest pressure rates in all of the NFL. This should continue against the Patriots' defense. In his 19 regular season games with the Buccaneers, Brady averaged 300.2 yards passing per game. In nine of his 19 regular-season games with the Buccaneers, he has passed 304.5 yards. The Patriots' (159.7) defense allowed the second-fewest number of passing yards to their opponents. However, it's hard to bet against Brady considering the many weapons he has. No active NFL quarterback can pick apart a defense quite like him. This prop is undoubtedly Brady's.
Choose: More than 304.5
Quarter of record-breaking pass (first trimester -240; second +200; third +2000; fourth +3500);
Brady is expected to throw the record-breaking pass during the first quarter. This is why the large number. This season, he's averaged 68.5 yards passing in the first quarter. Antonio Brown will also be back in this game, along with tight end Rob Gronkowski, wide receivers Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans. Brown was ineligible for COVID-19 and missed the Rams' game last week. Brady's average pass attempts from 2010 to 2020 have been 8.38, 62.8 yards passing, and 0.5 touchdowns each quarter in regular-season games. Brady could easily surpass these averages per game on Sunday night. His chances of breaking the record in the first quarter are good, but you have to lay -240 for this.
Pick: first quarter (-240)
Rob Gronkowski O/U 35 receptions
Gronk sustained a rib injury against the Rams in Week 3. However, his X-rays were negative. Adam Schefter, our very own NFL Insider reported that Gronk "looks likely to" play against the Patriots. Gronkowski's and Brady’s postseason and regular-season successes are well documented. Since 2020, the tight end's dynamic play has averaged 3.2 receptions per week in the regular season. He will be difficult to contain for the Patriots' linebackers and safety. Gronkowski will be looking at Brady early and often. I would take the over here.
Choose: More than 3.5 receptions
Mike Evans O/U 56.5 receiving yards
Since Brady arrived in Tampa Bay, Evans has averaged 7.1 goals, 4.5 receptions and 63.7 receiving yards per match in his 19 regular-season games. In two of the three games this season, he has exceeded 56.5 receiving yards. Godwin will likely be matched against Patriots cornerback Jonathan Jones. Bill Belichick could use a double team against him. Evans and Patriots cornerback J.C. Jackson could be seeing a lot of one another. This matchup is great for the veteran receiver. I recommend that you take the over on this prop.
Pick: Over 56.5 receiving yards
The Game
This was the game that we waited eagerly for since the announcement of the 2021 NFL schedule. Belichick is 6.5 points ahead of Brady as the favorite. The Buccaneers offense is ranked in the top 10 for both yards gained (and points scored). However, Tampa Bay's defense is in the bottom 10 for both of these categories. The Buccaneers were faced with two strong offensives, the Cowboys (and Rams) respectively. The secondary in Tampa Bay should be able to defeat Mac Jones more successfully. The Patriots have already faced the Jets, Dolphins and Saints this season. Now they face the daunting task of trying to stop the Buccaneers offense.
This should really be the Buccaneers' loss. Tampa Bay has been successful against two potential playoff teams. The Patriots have yet to face a viable opponent. It will be fascinating to see how Belichick, defensive genius, will plan to stop Brady.
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The total score for this nonconference matchup is 49 points. The betting trends favor Patriots. New England is 5-1 straight-up in its six home games as an underdog. The Buccaneers are currently 1-4 in their five Sunday night games. This situation must be disregarded. Brady's incredible competitiveness has no limits. My money is on the GOAT or the Buccaneers.
Pick: Bucs 6.5
