Lamar Jackson completed a pass to Justin Tucker on Sunday, setting up Justin Tucker's record-setting 66-yard field goal. This was one week after Lamar Jackson led the Ravens to a dramatic 36-35 win over the Chiefs.
Jackson finished the game quietly with 1003 pass attempts, an early career marker that demonstrates his historic QB production.
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Pro Football Focus took offense to Lamar's second interception in the first quarter against the Chiefs.
PFF could have provided some interesting stats on the rarity of a Jackson IN (he had only three career 1st-quarter INTs prior to that night). This might have educated some of the bigots and idiots they encouraged to post comments claiming Guy can't throw and Lamar is a turnover machine.
Such ignorance is all around Lamar. The problem is deeper than just a bad tweet. Bad math is the root cause.
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PFF also ranked NFL's top 50 players in the preseason. Unfortunately, Lamar did not make it to the final cut. This is the worst evaluation of Lamar since Bill Polian, the NFL Hall of Famer, wanted to move Lamar to wide receiver.
If we don't believe the eyes of Polian, a six-time NFL Executive of Year, to correctly assess a Black dual-threat quarterback, who can we trust? Nobody is. It is impossible to trust perception alone.
PFF and other advanced QB metrics can't be trusted to accurately measure the production of dual-threat players. You need a new formula if you create a formula that doesn't rate Lamar among the top-50 players in 2021 or Cam Newton among the top-10 QBs in 2015 following his 15-1, 45 TD MVP year (see QB DVOA, Football Outsiders), You can go back to the lab. Make sure that it addresses all three levels of Lamars greatness.
1. Lamars Passing Production is a historic feat. Comparing with QB greats at FIRST 1000 passes, Lamar ranks top-5 in NFL passer ratings; touchdowns; TD-to INT ratio (3.5), which also ranks third all-time after Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers. He did this all with Willie Snead and Marquise Brown as his primary wide receivers.
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2. Lamar's Rushing Production. Lamar is the most prolific rushing QB in history (read more below). Lamar has run 700 yards more than Michael Vick while still producing TDs as Cam. Lamar's impact is devalued when he separates his passing stats from his rushing stats. His true Total TD/INT ratio for his first career is staggering at 91-20 (more details here).
3. Lamars Team Impact: Lamar can be described as the Aaron Donald of offense. Donald makes almost every Rams game an 11 vs. 10, or 11 vs. 9, because offenses have 2-3 men to block him while Donald's teammates rack up the tackles. Lamar is shadowed by extra men. He freezes defenders, which opens up running lanes and passing lanes for average receiving backs. It is just as foolish to judge Lamars impact on his stats alone as it is to assess Donalds on the basis of his tackles and sacks.
Too many statisticians and high-tech Bill Polians incorrectly assess Jackson instead of correctly evaluating him. 1.) severely devaluing No. 2; devaluing No. 3. Because they are unable to quantify it. Part of No. Part of No.
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Research of more than 80 quarterbacks' first 1,000 passes within the closest game (i.e. This article compares Lamar's first 1,000 passes to within the closest game (i.e. 992; 1006 and 1015). For a more fair comparison, 1 000 passes is equal to each QB's number of attempts. Joe Montana did not need to throw for 4,000 yards to win four Super Bowls. Lamar doesn't have to throw for 4, 000 yards in a season to win four Super Bowls. This article will be sensitive to the greater difficulty of past passing eras and will have value:
Substance over style - Mahomes does not get any extra wow points because of his elastic arm passes. Lamar doesn't lose points if people don't like his throwing motion. Muhammad Ali was known for holding his hands too low while he knocked out his opponents. This is the only thing we care about.
Mahomes does not get any extra wow points for elastic arm passes. Lamar does not lose points if people don't like his throwing motion. Muhammad Ali was known for holding his hands too low while he knocked out his opponents. This is the only thing we care about. Production over Perception: Sports writers who gushing about Mac Jones' speed in the huddle, command at line of scrimmage and crisp decision-making are called perception. There are only 1,000 facts.
Perception is when sports writers are gushing about Mac Jones' speed in the huddle, command at line of scrimmage and crisp decision-making. There are only 1,000 facts. Results over Spliced Stats - Cherry-picked stats created for Lamar
Let's look at the performance of four components:
No. No.
A. HIGHEST PASSER RATE - FIRST 1000:
109.2 Patrick Mahomes (192017-19), 105.6 Kurt Warner (199-01), 104.3 Deshaun Watson (17-19), 102.5 Dan Marino (83-85), 101.9 Lamar Jackson (18-21), 100.1 Russell Wilson (12-14)
Lamar enjoys joking, which is not bad for a running back.
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Mahomes is a shining star, but Marino and Warners' exemplary career starts stand out most due to their more difficult passing eras. Marino, a rookie, started nine games before he won the MVP award in 1984. He threw for 5, 084 yards and 48 touchdowns. His FIRST-1, 000 pass rating (102.5) was significantly higher than Joe Montana's first 1000 (90.2). He also blew away John Elway (69), who struggled to draft him in 1983.
Marino lost in the 1984 Super Bowl to Montana. He would never win again and he would not be able to replicate the success he had the previous five years. He was figured out by opposing coaches. The media language is almost exclusively used to describe dual-threat Black QBs but rarely for playoff-struggling white pocket passers (see Peyton, his 20s; and Philip Rivers).
They didn't. They didn't.
Marino's early peak is a warning sign about how easily an organization can lose a great QB talent. In 1984, Miami's defense was ranked 7th. Marino's remaining prime was spent with back-up running backs and bottom feeder defenses, not Montana. Marino, with the retirement of Mark Clayton and Mark Duper, was left on his own and would not receive any career-altering draft support. Football is not tennis. Support is important if you want to win.
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Here's how the 2000 Super Bowl champion QBs got their start:
B. PASSER RATEINGS FIRST 1000 (TDs/INTs).
96.5 Aaron Rodgers (52/1) 87.7 Ben Roethlisberger (52/2) 85.9 Tom Brady (42/6) 80.1 Peyton Manning 50/42) 75.7 Drew Brees (33/3)
All ratings would be exaggerated today, but Rodgers' start would still rank among the top. Both Ben and Young Tom would win the Super Bowl in their second season. However, they did it as conservative game managers with top-ranked defenses. They changed later. However, Ben's 3rd worst year was not his best. Did Ben get figured out by teams? It didn't happen. After Jerome Bettis, Steelers Hall of Famer, had retired, he was trying to adjust to a new lifestyle.
The most difficult were Young Peyton (and Brees) Peyton gun slinged 100 interceptions over his first five seasons. He continued to get figured out in playoffs, culminating in a 41-0 loss by the Jets in his fifth year.
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No. 2: LAMAR HAS THE 4TH-MOST TOUCHDOWN PPASSES AFTER FIRST 1000 Passes (Super Bowl Era/Post Jim Crow QB Era).
Sid Luckman (71 TDs), Otto Graham (71 TDs), Len Dawson (81) and a few others QBs between 1930-1960s had prolific TD passes totals but played in an era where all Black players were banned or all Black QBs were not allowed to challenge their numbers. Here are the earliest TD throwers since 1970:
A. MOST TD PASSES FIRST 1000
75 Marino (26 INTS) 73 Kurt Warner (34) 771 Patrick Mahomes (16), 70 Lamar Jackson (20), 68 Dave Kreig (44) 633 Russell Wilson (22) 663 Deshaun Watson (22) 663 Tony Romo (36) 61 Ken Stabler (54)
Lamars first 1000 passing TDs has maintained a historic pace similar to Marino and Warner. Marino's 2.88 TD/INT rate back in those days is just as impressive, if not more, than Jackson and Mahomes today.
Marinos TD targets for Marinos were The Marks Brothers. They are a dynamic duo consisting of Mark Clayton, Mark Duper and Mark Clayton. Warner was part of The Greatest Show on Turf and was surrounded by Hall-of-Fame talent like Orlando Pace, Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, and Isaac Bruce.
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Warner would fall in the following years. Did Warner get it right? It was not again.
Warner overcame a six-year, injury-plagued slump in his mid-career before his Super Bowl run at 37 with the Arizona Cardinals. Warner's absurd passer rating of 117.4 in five Cardinals playoff games was a remarkable feat. He needed two new Pro Bowl wideouts, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Bodin. The NFL teams had to believe in his redemption as they don't have faith now for Cam Newton.
Cam and Lamar Jackson both have strong tight ends (see Mark Andrews), but he has been a 3rd-string wide receiver most of his career. We sure hope so.
How can Lamar manage to have 70 passing touchdowns and no wide receivers at the top?
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Lamar is the answer.
He is the run-threat on every down and often creates the receiver separation. After a Chiefs defensive miscommunication, Lamar's throwback jump pass to Lamar for a fourth quarter TD was a throwback pass. Lamar is known for causing many miscommunications, where defenders freeze in unison, unsure if they should follow the receiver or stop Jackson.
Jackson can produce elite stats even without great receivers, in a way that immobile pocket passers Warner couldn't.
Even Tom Brady was included in this list, as he had a terrible 78.5 passer rating in his nine Patriots games (5 including the playoff loss). Brady wisely switched the NFL's worst receivers to Tampa's best, leaving Cam with a heap of crap that could end his career rather than a Kurt Warner 2nd Act.
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It's not just that. Jackson has shown his ability to pass in passing situations and has been as good as any quarterback in the league. Steven Ruiz, an Athletics analyst, writes that Jackson is better than Mahomes on these plays.
No. No.
Only a few QBs have ever had more interceptions than Jackson's 20, even though they were their first 1,000. His early 3.5 Pass TD-to-interception ratio is third all time. Here's how his FIRST 1,000 to other starting quarterbacks for 2020 and 2021.
INTERCEPTIONS for Starting QBs in 2020-2021 First 1000
Vs. 2018 Draft Class: 32 Baker Mayfield ; 32 Sam Darnold; 25 Josh Allen; 20 Lamar Jackson
Baker Mayfield Sam Darnold; Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson Vs. other QBs (30+INTs: 42 Ben; 38 Alex Smith, 36 Fitzpatrick; 35 Stafford, 33 Brees; 32 Kirk Cousins
Lamar threw 70 touchdowns. None of the other 10 players threw more that 51 (Ben).
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Lamar threw 7,559 yards. Only Ben was able to throw for more than twice the number of interceptions out of these 10.
HIGH INTERCEPTIONS PAST HALL OF FAMERS FIRST 1000
1990s: Peyton Manning 42 / Brett Favre 39
Peyton Manning Brett Favre 1980s: Troy Aikman 45 / Warren Moon 43 / Elway 41
Troy Aikman Warren Moon Elway 1970s Terry Bradshaw 65; Bob Griese 54; Dan Fouts 52
Young Terry was an extraordinary individual! Even though they were young, these struggling greats had high interception rate even when compared to their era. Peyton had 50 TDs, while all other players had more INTs. These players would not be able to put together great seasons until their fourth through seventh seasons.
It is not that Peytons FIRST 1,000 produced more INTs that Lamar. It is that he more that doubled Lamar and far more than many other of his contemporaries.
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Take a look at these:
Do you see any pattern?
The FIRST 1, 000 list is dominated by Black QBs. They have lower interception rates and higher TD-toINT ratios. This is especially true after 1995, which was the pivotal year in which more than three Black starting QBs were employed by the NFL. (This season was defined as 100+ passes). Ryan Fitzpatrick, a young struggling white QB, is allowed more chances. Ask Vince Young, who is younger and had a 31-19 record prior to his retirement in 2011.
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Growing pains for young Black QBs can be described as a lack of ability to read defenses and other language that makes their worst seasons or seasons seem unfixable. Jameis Winston, who broke the mold under Bruce Arians let'it-fly offense and became the 5th NFL player with 5100 yards and 33 TDs, was begging for a roster slot at a 1M contract for half the rate of Nathan Peterman.
You'll see that Vince Youngs FIRST 1,000 production was the same as Eli Mannings. Jameiss first 5 year was very similar to Elis brother Peytons. Geno Smith, unfairly denigrated, had a career start almost identical to Drew Brees.
Rarely, Black QBs who throw INTs like Fitz and Sam Darnold might soon be expelled from the NFL, just like Vince or Cam. High TD-to INT ratios for Black QBs are not just nice statistics, they're essential job requirements.
No. 4 LAMAR IS ALSO ONE OF THE BEST RUSHING QARTERBACKS EVER FIRST 1000
Lamar has played in 39 games since his first 1, 000 throws. Below are the leaders in rush yards and rushing touchdowns for each 39th start.
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Cam Newton or Michael Vick? This is a fair debate without Lamar on who is the most valuable rush QB.
Vicks 6109 career rushing yards, 36 rushing touchdowns; Cams 5,398 running yards, 70 rushing points a TD-rushing total that exceeds at least 10 HOF runningbacks including O.J. Simpson, Thurman Thomas and Larry Csonka. Comparing their 39 first starts, Lamar wins Vick by 701 yard and is four yards short of Cam. This debate is over with Lamar Jackson.
Jackson is the most important rushing QB with the technical exception of Playoff Kaepernick. Jackson is the most valuable rushing QB ever, with the technical exception of Playoff Kaepernick.
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Cam's rare QB specialty of rushing for first downs, which is often overlooked, also makes this a great accomplishment. Cam had 55 last year. Lamar had 56. B oth were more efficient than most running backs. Lamar ran for a remarkable 71 first downs in 2019, which was 4th in the NFL, right after Derrick Henrys' 73. You can read it again.
The bigger question is: What is all this worth to a larger Greatest Quarterback Start Debatate?
Marino, Warner Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Russell Rodgers were the most successful players of their era based on FIRST 1 000 passing production. Although Jackson had better starting passes than Dan, Kurt and Pat, they were not as good. This is supported by a review of advanced stats like Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A).
Add Lamar's 3000+ rushing yards, 21 touchdowns and 189 extra first downs gained to make Lamar the most powerful QB start in the Super Bowl Era. And he does it with the smallest offensive weapons, as demonstrated by a variety of perfectly-thrown dropped passes Sunday.
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STOP SEGREGRATING QB PASS/RUSHING STATS, START COMBINING THEM
Lamar's 4th-quarter TDs against the Chiefs were worth the exact same points as if the Chiefs had thrown those TDs. Why not show PRODUCTION?
A. A.
91 Lamar (20 INT)
77 Marino (26)
75 Deshaun (22)
74 Mahomes (16); 34 Warner (34); 44 Dave Krieg (44)
71 Russ (22)
Lamar leads the pack with 91, which brings his true ratio of TD/INT to 4.55. After his rookie year, Lamar averaged 6.7 yards per run. This is one more than many QBs yards/PASS. Imagine if his rushes were considered passes and combined?
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LAMARs PRODUCTION RATE (Pass Rating adjusted to include rushing gains).
101.9 Lamars PASSER rating FIRST 1, 000
FIRST 1, 000 109.5 LAMARS PRODUCTION Rating (Pass Rating With Rushes Integrated). FIRST 1, 000
It's not bad for a dual threat quarterback.
Lamars Production Rating considers his runs and TDs passes, instead of separating them.
It's not difficult. You can add some simple combined stats to the 800 advanced NFL metrics.
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Instead, Lamar Jackson is continually undervalued by the NFL analytic team. They also make fun of one of his few INTs so that the video is worth more than 1,000 passes
Lamar Jackson, just 24 years old, has just recorded the greatest FIRST 1,000 Pass start in modern quarterbacking history.
Now, write about it.
