The Conversation is an online publication that covers the most recent research and permission to reproduce the essay below.
Many reports that are based on scientific research discuss the long-term effects of climate change, such as rising temperatures, greenhouse gases and sea level by the year 2100. For example, the Paris Agreement requires that we limit global warming to below 2.0 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end the century.
Since 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes has evaluated our progress using its scientific assessment reports (IPCC) and other special reports. The IPCC reports evaluate existing research to determine where we stand and what we must do to reach our goals by 2100.
According to the United Nations Assessment of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), current government promises could lead to a dangerous 2.7 degree Celsius increase in temperature by 2100. This would mean unprecedented fires and storms, droughts and floods, as well as profound land- and aquatic ecosystem changes.
Although some climate projections look beyond 2100, they are not being considered in mainstream climate adaptation or environmental decision-making. It is not surprising, given that most people born today will be in their 70s by 2100. How will their children and grandchildren see the world?
Researchers and policymakers need to look beyond the 2100-horizon in order to grasp, plan, and communicate the full spatial, temporal, and global impact of climate impacts under any scenario.
After 2100
Will the climate stop warming by 2100? What does this mean for humanity now and in the future? These questions are answered in our open-access article published in Global Change Biology.
Amazon
The top image depicts a pre-contact Indigenous village (1500 CE), with access to the river, and crops grown in the rainforest. The middle image shows a modern landscape. The bottom image is a view of the year 2500. It shows a barren landscape with low water levels resulting from vegetation loss, as well as minimal human activity. Credit: (Lyon et al., 2021), CC BY-ND
Midwest U.S.
The top painting depicts pre-colonisation Indigenous communities and buildings, as well as a variety of maize-based agricultural practices. The second image is of the same area today with large harvesters and a monoculture of grain. However, the last image shows agriculture adaptation to a hot, humid subtropical climate. It is based on oil palms, and arid zone succulents. With a lower human presence, the crops are managed by AI drones. Credit: (Lyon et al., 2021), CC BY-ND
Subcontinent of India
The top image shows a bustling agrarian village scene with rice planting, livestock usage and social life. The second image shows a modern scene that demonstrates the combination of traditional rice farming with modern infrastructure found in many parts of the Global South. Bottom image depicts a future with heat-adaptive technologies, including robotic agriculture and green building without the need to have people present. Credit: (Lyon et al., 2021), CC BY-ND
Global climate model projections were run based on Representative Concentration Pathways. These are time-dependent projections for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG), and we modelled high mitigation scenarios (RCP2.6), which corresponds to well-below 2° Celsius Paris Agreement goal, up to the year 2000.
To get an idea of the environmental challenges that children and their descendants will face in the future, we also created models of vegetation distribution, heat stress, and growing conditions for major crop plants.
Our model showed that the global average temperature keeps rising above 2100 in both RCP4.5 (6.0) and 6.0. These scenarios result in vegetation moving towards the poles and the most suitable areas for certain crops being reduced. Some areas with a long history of ecosystem and cultural richness, such as the Amazon Basin may become barren.
We also found that heat stress can cause death in areas of tropical high population. These areas could become uninhabitable. Even in high-mitigation situations, sea level continues to rise due to the expansion and mixing of water in warmer oceans.
Our findings, although they are based only on one climate model show that they are within the range projections from other models and help reveal the potential scale of climate change on longer timescales.
To really portray what a low-mitigation/high-heat world could look like compared to what weve experienced until now, we used our projections and diverse research expertise to inform a series of nine paintings covering a thousand years (1500, 2020, and 2500 CE) in three major regional landscapes (the Amazon, the Midwest United States and the Indian subcontinent). Images for the year 2500 are based on RCP6.0 projections. They include slightly more advanced, but easily recognized versions of current technologies.
An alien future?
Between 1500 and now, we've seen colonization, the Industrial Revolution, modern identities, institutions, and mass combustion of fossil fuels. We must stop climate warming. The Earth will be affected in 500 years. This will impact our ability to sustain many basic necessities for survival, especially in the culturally and geographically rooted cultures that provide us with meaning and identity.
Our high-end projections of Earth are alien to us. We have two choices: reduce emissions and adapt to the warming that we can't escape, or consider living on an Earth different from this one.
This article was first published by The Conversation. You can read the original article.
