COVID-19 has now killed about as many Americans as the 1918-19 flu
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COVID-19 now has killed approximately as many Americans than the 1918-19 Spanish influenza pandemic, which caused around 675,000 deaths.
A century ago, the U.S. population was only one-third what it is today. This means that the flu spread much faster and more fatally than today. The COVID-19 epidemic is a tragedy by itself, particularly considering the amazing scientific advances and failure to use the vaccines at their best.
"Big pockets of American society, and worse, their leaders, have thrown it away," Dr. Howard Markel, a medical historian at the University of Michigan, said about the chance to immunize everyone who is eligible.
The coronavirus, like the Spanish flu virus, may not completely disappear from our midst. Scientists hope that it will become a mild seasonal bug once human immunity is strengthened through repeated infections and vaccination. This could take some time.
Rustom Antia from Emory University said, "We hope it'll be like getting a virus, but there is no guarantee." He suggested an optimistic scenario where this could occur over several years.
The pandemic is still holding the United States and other countries in its grips for now.
Although the new infection surge due to the delta may be over, deaths in the United States are still at an average of over 1,900 per day, the highest since March. The country's total toll was just over 674,000 at midday Monday according to Johns Hopkins University data, although the actual number is likely to be higher.
The University of Washington's influential model projects that another 100,000 Americans will die from COVID-19 by January 1, which would increase the U.S. death toll to 776,000.
Globally, the 1918-19 flu pandemic claimed 50 million lives. This was at a time when there was only one-quarter of the population today. More than 4.6 million people have died from COVID-19 worldwide.
Due to the lack of records from the time and poor scientific understanding of the cause of the Spanish flu, the U.S. death rate is an estimate. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has the figure of 675,000.
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If the virus becomes more resistant to attacks and weakens, COVID-19 may eventually disappear. The main steps to improving your immune system are vaccination and survival. Breastfed infants are also protected by their mothers.
This optimistic scenario would see schoolchildren get mild illnesses that train their immune system. The immune response memory would be passed to the children as they age, so when they become old and vulnerable the coronavirus will not be more dangerous than the cold viruses.
This is true for today's teens who have been vaccinated: They would be stronger if they had received shots and minor infections.
Antia said, "All of us will get infected." "It is important to know if the infections are serious."
Similar events occurred with H1N1 influenza virus, which was responsible for the 1918-19 pandemic. It was not immune to too many people and eventually became weaker through mutation. Although H1N1 is still in circulation today, immunity has been achieved through vaccination and infection.
An annual flu shot protects you against H1N1 as well as other flu strains. Flu can be fatal in between 12,000 to 61,000 Americans annually, but it is usually a seasonal issue and manageable.
The 1918-19 flu, which was widely considered to be the most severe pandemic in human history, preceded COVID-19. It is not clear if the current pandemic will prove to be more deadly.
The 1918-19 flu, incorrectly named Spanish flu due to its first widespread coverage in Spain, was worse.
It was spread by the mobility of World War I and killed many young healthy adults. There was no vaccine to stop it and no antibiotics for secondary bacterial infections. The world was smaller, however.
But mass migrations and jet travel could increase the severity of the current pandemic. Many people are not vaccinated. The coronavirus is full of surprises.
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Markel stated that he is constantly amazed by the scale of the disruption caused by the pandemic.
Markel stated that he was "gobsmacked" by the initial quarantines the Chinese government implemented. "And I've been gob-gob–gob-smacked up to the nth degree since then." His astonishment is fueled by the slow pace at which U.S. vaccines are administered.
A little over 64% of the U.S. populace has had at least one dose of the vaccine. State rates vary from approximately 77% in Vermont, Massachusetts, and Idaho to as low as 46% to 49% for Idaho, Wyoming and West Virginia.
According to Our World in Data data, 43% of the world's population has had at least one shot. Some African countries are just starting to get their first shots.
Dr. Jeremy Brown, Director of Emergency Care Research at the National Institutes of Health and author of a book about influenza, stated that "all pandemics end in an end." They can do horrible things when they're raging.
COVID-19 would have been less deadly in the U.S. had more people been vaccinated sooner, Brown stated. "We often forget how fortunate we are to be able to take these things as a given."
The vaccines currently in use are very effective in preventing serious disease and death due to the various strains of the virus.
Antia stated that scientists will need to ensure that the virus doesn't evolve enough to evade vaccines, or cause severe illness in children who haven't been vaccinated.
A Pfizer executive stated Wednesday that if the virus is changed significantly, a new vaccine that uses the same technology as Moderna and Pfizer shots could be made in 110 days. It is currently examining whether annual shots of the current vaccine are necessary to maintain high immunity.
One plus: The coronavirus is more stable than the flu viruses and mutates slower than the flu viruses. Ann Marie Kimball (retired University of Washington professor of epidemiology) said this.
Will the current pandemic be able to overtake the 1918-19 flu pandemic, which was the worst human-made pandemic?
"You would like to say no. We are able to provide support for people who are sick, and have better infection control. Kimball stated that modern medicine is available to us. Kimball said, "But we have more people and more mobility. ... The fear is that eventually, a new strain will get around a specific vaccine target."
Kimball advised those who have not been vaccinated that they should be aware that immunity can only be obtained by surviving infection. She said that it's much easier to get a shot at the pharmacy than to go to the hospital.
