A fishnet net caught sardines, Furadouro beach Portugal Tobias Weber/ Alamy Stock Photos
According to an assessment, the world's need for fish will almost double by 2050 because of growing wealth and population.
The global fish consumption has doubled since 1998. However, a Stanford University team headed by Rosamond Naylor projects an additional 80 percent increase in the mid-century by a team from California. The researchers believe that the choice of what fish people eat will determine whether this is good or bad for nutrition and the environment.
Beatrice Crona, a colleague at the Stockholm Resilience Center in Sweden, said that we tend to think of fish as a single thing. Preferences will play an important role in whether or not we can convince people to eat small, pelagic fish (such as sardines and mussels), which are low [environmental] impacts but very nutritious.
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Crona says that it would be impossible to supply the increased demand by expanding the production of salmon farmed from high-ranking species, such as those in Norway and Chile. Crona says salmon farming is linked to water pollution, overfishing and parasite spread to wild fish.
Brazil, India, Mexico, Nigeria, and Brazil are all expected more than double their fish consumption by 2050. China will continue to be the largest consumer of fish, increasing its consumption from less than 50 million tonnes in 2015 to just below 100 million by 2050. This growth will reduce meat and dairy consumption per head in many countries, including China, the US, and increase intakes of iron, calcium, and vitamin B-12.
They used modelling that was based on UN Food and Agriculture Organization data (FAO) on the types of fish consumed in the 10 countries that account to 55% of global fish consumption and World Bank and International Monetary Fund projections of future economic and population growth. Researchers considered these 10 countries to be indicative of global trends. These projections don't assume a linear increase in 2015; they also account for shifts in species consumption as people get wealther.
The analysis is based on assumptions that can be challenged. The first is that the supply of food and fuel perfectly matches demand, so prices don't rise relative to incomes. This is due to the fact that the majority of the increase in supply is mainly from farmed fish Naylor claims it will grow by 90%, which is reasonable considering the industry's past growth. Crona says that there is little opportunity for increased capture fisheries [wild-caught fish] uptake globally.
It is not a given that aquaculture can supply the growing demand. Aquaculture is only 5% of the world's total marine fish production. This makes it difficult for aquaculture to fill the gap between future demand for marine fishes and current supply.
Crona says that the shift towards plant-based diets in certain countries is a result of environmental concerns. The environment is facing a crisis unlike any other. The younger generation is making new choices in response.
The wild card of climate changes, which could cause disruption in the growth of farmed fish by extreme weather, is another factor that the team highlighted.
Diverse cultural tastes may mitigate any negative effects if the increasing demand is realized. The world is rich in fish consumption. This shows that blue food, which is food derived from aquatic animals plants or algae, has a lot to offer food systems. Crona says that it's not only salmon and not just anchovies.
Journal reference: Nature Communications, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25516-4
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