Research has shown that people with dementia and chronic conditions like Down syndrome are still at greatest risk of contracting Covid-19, even after getting vaccinated.
Based on data from 6.9 million adults who had been vaccinated, and 5.2 million who had received both doses, the study found that vaccination provides strong protection against hospitalisation in almost all age groups. Based on the data, however, a risk calculator shows that certain groups are still at risk and could benefit from booster vaccines and monoclonal antibody treatments.
Researchers found that Downs syndrome sufferers had an approximately 13-fold higher risk of dying from Covid-19 than the general population. This was even before vaccination. However, people with dementia or Parkinson's disease experienced a twofold increase in their chances. The increase in risk may be due to the fact that people have contact with caregivers, for example.
Carol Coupland is a professor of primary care medical statistics at the University of Nottingham. She also serves as a senior researcher at Oxford.
Aziz Sheikh is a professor of primary care research, development, and director of The Usher Institute at Edinburgh. He said that while Covid-19 exposure may have increased the risk for some groups, it's possible that Downs syndrome sufferers are more vulnerable. He said that this group remains a major risk group and people should investigate it.
According to the study, older people and men are more at risk than those of Indian or Pakistani descent. People from poor backgrounds, those with immunosuppression and residents of care homes are also at higher risk.
These findings were published in the British Medical Journal. They will be used to update an NHS risk prediction tool that is currently used by GPs during consultations to determine patients' risk. Researchers from the University of Oxford will make the tool online for academics. However, this version won't include clinical guidance.
The algorithm now predicts the most serious Covid-19 outcomes in those who have had their second dose of vaccination for 14 days or more. This is when significant immunity should have developed.
Researchers believe the new tool will help those who consider risk high to make better decisions about shielding. It could also inform policy and clinical decisions about booster vaccine doses or monoclonal antibody therapy.
Scientists used national data from general practice, vaccination and PCR testing as well as hospital admissions data. The sample contained 2,031 Covid-19-related hospital admissions and 1,929 Covid-19-related deaths. Of these, 81 deaths and the 71 admissions were within 14 days of receiving the second dose. The researchers used this information to create scores that could be used to determine people's chances of dying or being admitted to hospital from Covid-19.
The study didn't consider factors that could have affected exposure, such as occupation or the number of people living in a single home.
Professor HippisleyCox stated: Individual risk will always depend upon individual choices as well the current prevalence of disease. However, we hope this tool will facilitate shared decision-making and a more personalized risk assessment.
