Soon, the production line will be ready for the ten billionth Covid vaccine. According to Airfinity's recent report, there will soon be enough vaccine doses for all continents by January according to their data research agency. The number of vaccine doses will rise to 27bn by June, sufficient to immunise the entire world twice.
Despite this manufacturing success, we are losing badly the arms race for every adult in every country to be vaccinated. Based on current trends, over half of the world's population will not be vaccinated next summer. It is simply not possible to get the doses we need to all people.
This was previously due to a lack of vaccines. Now there is an inexplicable failure of vaccines being distributed fairly. The poor countries which have only injected 2% of their adult population are being denied vaccines while the rich countries who have fully immunized more than 60% of their citizens, continue to have exclusive access to them. Many will die this month and in the future. This is not due to a shortage of vaccines, but because they are being kept in places that are least need.
Boris Johnson's promise that all of the world would be vaccinated in 2021 and 2022, made on behalf of G7, the G7 club, advanced economies, is currently not likely to be kept. Over 100 countries won't meet the September deadline for inoculating even 10% of their population by September, and they are unlikely to meet the December deadline for vaccinating 30%.
The World Health Organizations Covax programme, a global bulk buying agency established last year to ensure fair vaccine distribution, is called the World Health Organizatons Covax programme. Even though the G7 countries promised Covax that they would share 870m vaccines with the poorest nations in June, only 100m of the vaccines have been made available to them. In total, Covax has received 4% of all vaccines worldwide.
It is a moral disaster that we collectively failed to transform the scientific success of vaccines into protection for all and avoid dividing the world into vaccine-haves and vaccine-nots. We might call the world a failed state if it were a nation.
We are racing against the clock to reverse this trend. Countries with high vaccination coverage have broken the link between Covid deaths and cases. However, countries without vaccines are seeing high rates of deaths and hospitalisations. The anger of African countries has been expressed by the Mandela-inspired Elders group, African NGOs and leaders. They decided that they could not rely on the west's promises and set up their own bulk-purchasing agent. Now they are aiming to build their own vaccine manufacturing capabilities.
There is a way forward. A G7 summit on emergency vaccines, chaired President Biden, should be held at the UN General Assembly to discuss a comprehensive plan for transferring the west's unutilized supplies and over-subscribed vaccine delivery contract to Covax.
There are more vaccines than we need to accomplish this. Vaccine production has already reached 1.5bn monthly doses, and will exceed 2bn by the end. We will have more than 1bn unutilized vaccines by then. This number could rise to 2bn by mid-2022.
Up until recently, western leaders were able to defend keeping supplies in reserve as they feared disruptions to the manufacturing supply chain. There is enough capacity to ensure a steady supply of vaccines over the coming months. There are so many vaccines being made that there is a greater risk that millions could go to waste.
We could start immediately. The western countries could have 500m doses of vaccine by September, with 200m every month thereafter. This plan would allow low-income countries to have sufficient vaccines to immunise 60% their population by 2022. It would also enable them to catch up to the rich nations' current vaccination levels within a year.
Vaccine-rich countries don't have to choose between donations and boosters. North America and Europe can vaccinate their population by next year. They could offer boosters, provide for all 12s, give to poor countries and have enough doses to cover most eventualities. If China, the largest manufacturer in the world, were to join this effort, it would be possible to move that date forward by several months.
In comparison to the benefits of resumed employment, commerce, and trade, the financial cost is low. Covax will need to spend just $4bn (3bn), in order to pay for its 2022 vaccine purchase plans. Covax would need $30bn per year to provide comprehensive coverage, which includes therapeutics like medical oxygen to save people's lives and diagnostic equipment. This is only 1.5% of Biden's $1.9tn Covid stimulus and, when divided between advanced economies, it is very affordable.
It is self-destructive to deny the world vaccines and it will backfire on us. Variants of the disease could develop among those not vaccinated, which could lead to a reduction in vaccine coverage. The health and well-being of millions of people is at stake. So too is the sustainability of the global economic recovery as well as the possibility of inclusive and sustainable prosperity.
According to the public health agency of England, vaccination has already saved over 100,000 lives. If people in Africa continue to die from the lack of vaccines, will the rest of the globe ever trust us? Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (head of the WHO) stated that vaccine equity is the greatest challenge facing our time. It is also a test to see if the world can work together. We must.
