According to a new study, the vast majority of fossil fuels in the world are "unextractable" so they must be left in place if we want to have any chance of meeting our climate goals.
Researchers at University College London calculated that countries like Australia and Indonesia, which are the largest exporters of coal in the world, will have to abandon 95 percent their natural resources by 2050.
The United States will need to abandon 97 percent of its coal reserves and Middle Eastern countries will have their coal reserves removed from the ground.
These are the regions with the most work ahead of them. However, it is a team effort.
Over the next 30 years, almost 90 percent of the world's coal reserves must remain in the ground. This includes 76 percent in China, India, and China. Scientists warn that any further removal of this combustible rock will cause global warming to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius.
We don't have to worry only about coal. The world must stop 60 percent of its oil- and methane-gas extractions while we address this specific fossil fuel. This includes projects that are already in progress.
Canada alone will need to keep 83 percent of its oil underground by 2050, and 81 percent fossil methane.
Even if the world could tick all three boxes, it is still a huge challenge. Researchers estimate that we only have a 50% chance of keeping global temperatures below 1.5 degrees.
It seems that the statistical tossing of a coin is one of our most successful climate scenarios.
These findings are an update on a 2015 paper that was already grim. It estimated that nearly a third all oil reserves and half of all gas reserves were gone by 2015. More than 80 percent of the coal reserves must remain in the ground by 2050 to prevent global warming from exceeding 2 C.
These new estimates make it more difficult, with 25 percent more oil resources that must stay in the ground and 10 percent more coal reserves. If we want to keep global warming below 1.5 C, these additional reserves will be even more important.
It's likely that this is still too little too late. For example, the model used in this study does not consider any feedback systems that could trigger new carbon emissions much sooner than we thought.
Furthermore, to increase our chances of keeping below 1.5 C, we need to keep more carbon in the ground.
The authors state that the "bleak" picture of the global fossil fuel industry is probably a misinterpretation of the reality. As a result, production will need to be cut even more quickly.
It's difficult to predict the future. Scientists believe that the introduction of renewables and carbon capture may allow us to continue using fossil fuels to some extent. However, this view is highly controversial because the technology we have is not yet up to the task.
The new model requires a certain amount carbon capture and elimination by 2050. However, there are still questions about whether we can achieve this.
The authors state that after 2050, we shouldn't use fossil fuels for aviation or feedstock for the Petrochemical Industry.
We will be resigned to a worse climate crisis if we don't achieve a global energy transition by 2050. Some countries could also suffer massive revenue losses if this happens.
The largest fossil fuel reserve holders at the moment are Russia, the former Soviet states and the Middle East nations. This means that they stand to suffer the most.
For example, in Iraq, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, fossil fuels account for 65 to 85 percent of total government revenues.
Some could go bankrupt if the fossil fuel bubble bursts before these countries can transition to cleaner energy sources.
There is a lot at stake and no time to waste. According to the authors, nations all over the globe need to begin drafting policies to reduce fossil fuel production and decrease demand. This could be done through taxes, subsidies, new exploration bans, penalties for polluters, or taxes.
It is vital that we find a way to economically keep fossil fuels in the ground. This is the only way to save lives and to sustain livelihoods.
Nature published the study.
