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A study by UCL researchers found that nearly 60% of oil and fossil methane gases, and almost 90% of coal, must be kept in the ground by 2050 to maintain global warming below 1.5 C.
To reach this goal, global oil and gas production must fall by 3% per year until 2050. Many planned and actual fossil fuel extraction projects are not conducive for meeting the internationally agreed targets on global warming as established by the Paris Climate Agreement. Many regions have already reached their peak in fossil fuel production. Any increase in one region's production must be balanced by a decrease elsewhere.
Nature published the findings. They assume a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 C by this century. This means that increasing the chances of reaching this goal would require a faster decline in production and more fossil-fuels remaining in the ground.
To determine how much fossil fuels would be needed to extract regionally and globally, the researchers used a model of the global energy system.
As a percentage of 2018's reserve base, the required unextracted reserves are calculated. This should be 58% for oil and 59% for fossil methane, while it should be 89% for coal.
Dan Welsby, UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources, is the lead author. He says that in 2015, 196 parties signed Paris Climate Agreement. The agreement aims to keep the average global temperature rise well below 2 C with 1.5 C as the target. The IPCC Special Report about 1.5 C, subsequent Production Gap Reports, and the IEA Net Zero Report, have all shown that drastic cuts in fossil fuel production are needed immediately to move towards net zero emissions. They also indicated that the current and indicated fossil fuel production trajectories are not leading us in the right direction.
"Our paper adds weight to the recent research and indicates that global oil production and fossil methane has already surpassed its peak. Our results show that large producers of fossil fuels face significant risk from a regional perspective. For example, oil production in the Middle East is expected to fall by roughly half between 2020-2050. This suggests that diversification from dependence on hydrocarbon revenues is crucial.
This research builds upon previous research from 2015 that found that nearly half the fossil methane gas (49%) and more than 80% of coal resources should be kept in the ground to limit global warming to 2 C.
Researchers used the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (UCL) by UCL (TIAM–UCL). The model captures primary energy sourcesoil and fossil methane gas, coke, nuclear, biofuels, and renewablesfrom production to conversion (e.g. The model captures primary energy sourcesoil, fossil methane gas, and coal. It also includes oil refining and production of hydrogen and biofuels.
The 16 regions represent 16 countries around the globe, which allows for detailed analysis of each region's energy sector. The model evaluated different scenarios, including lower demand in key carbon-intensive sectors (aviation and chemicals), and uncertainty about the availability and deployment key carbon capture and utilization and storage (CCUS), and negative emission technologies (NETs)
The researchers discovered that 60% of unextracted fossil fuel reserves must be left in the Middle East. This is due to the huge size of its reserve base, which results in large absolute volumes. High concentrations of high-carbon intensive and expensive oil deposits within the reserve base have high levels of unextractable resources. These include the Canadian oil sands (83%) as well as the ultra-heavy oil from Central and South America (73%). It is a combination of several factors that determine the regional differences in the percentage of fossil fuels that must be extracted. These include extraction costs, carbon intensity and costs of alternative technologies.
Welsby said, "We stress the fact that our estimates for unextractable resources and production decline rates may be underestimated, given that we use a carbon budget consistent only with a 50% chance to meet 1.5 C and the uncertainty surrounding the deployment of positive emission technologies. The reductions in fossil fuels that we suggest are possible if the political will exists to honor the Paris commitments.
Additional information: Nature Dan Welsby and co, Unextractable fossilfuels in a 1.5 C World, Nature (2021). Information from Nature Dan Welsby and colleagues, Unextractable fossilfuels in a 1.5 C World, (2021). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03821-8
