Some U.S. airlines were restricted this summer while carriers rushed to get training completed for pilots who were absent during the worst days of Covid-19.
Experts predict a return to a structural shortage of pilots in the next few years, as flight operations eventually rise to 2019 levels without pilots who took advantage the early retirement offers offered by airlines in 2020.
Kit Darby, who runs KitDarby.com an aviation consulting company that focuses on career services for pilots, stated, "It's going to restrict our ability to conduct business worldwide." It will affect our regional airlines. They have over half the flights and 25% of the passengers. The smaller airlines will not be able to feed their passengers if they run out of pilots.
The surge in pilots retiring at 65, augmented by increased industry growth and a decrease in military-trained pilots who can be quickly hired, led to a shortage of pilots in the U.S. airlines before the pandemic.
The University of North Dakota has one of the country's most prestigious four-year flight training programs. It estimated that there was a shortage of 3,500 commercial aircraft pilots in 2020.
In the years preceding the Covid-19 epidemic, the shortage was particularly acute for regional airlines. This forced some regional airlines to cut their schedules and even lead to bankruptcies.
Schedule cuts directly affect major carriers since the United Express, Delta Connection, and American Eagle brands are the most popular U.S. regional airlines.
According to the University of North Dakota, mandatory retirements will peak in 2023-2026 at approximately 3,000 per year.
Kit Darby
With the onset of the Covid-19 crisis, the pilot shortage was over in an instant. Darby's analysis found that approximately 5,000 pilots took up early retirement offers from major U.S. airlines in an effort to cut their payroll. As airlines expect to reach 2019 demand levels by 2022 or 2023, and then grow from there, these pilots will need to be replaced sooner than they expected, often from existing regional pilot ranks.
The airline's hiring needs will be significantly higher than the ones they have handled so far. According to OAG, the U.S. airline capacity has fallen 11% compared to 2019. According to an Aviation Week analysis, worldwide, the in-service airline fleet is still 11% lower than pre-pandemic levels. 11% of planes in service are either parked, or on reserve.
Also, this means that there will be a need for more aircraft and more pilots in the future.
What are the airlines doing to address it?
Delta stated that it will hire 1,000 pilots next summer. United was the first major U.S. airline to buy its own flight training school. By the end of this decade, the Aviate Academy will have trained 5,000 pilots.
Oliver Wyman, a consulting firm, estimated that the U.S. pilot market will surpass supply by more than 9000 by January in an early analysis. According to the estimate, this number will rise to over 12,500 by January 2023 -- 13% of total demand. The bulk of this burden will be borne by regional airlines.
Faye Malarkey Black is the CEO of the Regional Airline Association. She stated that she anticipates a new pilot shortage in the next year. This will be magnified by early retirements which will result in less service for smaller communities that are primarily served by regional carriers.
The two largest U.S. regional airlines are optimistic about their staffing situation.
SkyWest spokeswoman Marissa Snow stated that "We have a strong pipeline including relationships with hundreds flight schools and have been lucky to maintain significant interest. With pilot training classes filled well into 2020", she said.
Republic Airways spokeswoman Lauren Gaudion noted that Republic Airways launched its own Lift pilot training academy at Indianapolis three years ago in order to address the pilot shortage.
She said, "With our pilots moving to Republic earlier in the summer, we are already witnessing the success of our flight school, and we continue to recruit students to increase the talent pool for pilots and technicians into future."
Lee Woodward
The anticipated shortage is also being addressed by other flight training schools. Skyborne Aviation, an England-based company, acquired the Flight Safety Aviation Academy in Vero beach, Fla., this spring and opened its first U.S. facility. Skyborne has already established training partnerships with American, Delta, and United Airlines, CEO Lee Woodward stated. Details of an affiliation with SkyWest are soon to be announced.
Woodward spoke out about Skyborne's partners, saying that "it is quite apparent to me how [they] view the looming shortage of pilots."
Darby stated that while it is important to fill training academies, it will not solve the shortage in the medium-term. This is because it can take aspiring pilots up to four years to become eligible to fly with a regional airline, and much longer for one to fly for a mainline carrier.
He said, "We will have to do everything." We will have to recruit from both flight training schools, two-year colleges, four-year schools, and the military. It won't be enough for the long-term, I think. It will restrict business over the next two to three years, I believe."
