A crowd gathers to protest the recall of Culver City High school on Sept. 4. (Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times)
Politics is all about math. If you are outnumbered by 2 to 1, then you will lose. This is how Republicans began their recall fight, and it's why they are ending it again.
The voting will continue until September 14. It is possible to be surprised. It is possible that the polls are wrong, and the initial pace at which ballot returns is received may be misleading.
The signs are pointing to a wasteful GOP misadventure, and political survival for Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom.
The nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California conducted a new poll last week and found that 58% of likely voters opposed recalling Newsom. Only 39% of those surveyed want him to be removed.
PPIC surveys show that Newsom support has remained almost the same throughout the year. This is largely due to political polarization. Republicans want the governor removed from office. Democrats support him heavily, while Republicans are overwhelmingly against him. California has nearly twice the number of registered Democrats than Republicans.
According to PPIC polling, the GOP has not made any progress in trying to convince voters to fire Newsom before his contract expires at the end next year. While some other surveys showed a close contest, almost all of them had Newsom slightly ahead.
Ballot tracking also shows that Democratic voters aren't as apathetic than Newsom strategists had feared. We journalists have been reporting on this. They are interested enough to vote by mail fairly quickly.
Meanwhile, Republicans aren't jumping to the mailbox to get their ballots. They're far from the enthusiastic voters who want to dump the Democratic governor.
It is not obvious what this means.
Paul Mitchell, vice-president of Political Data Inc. and numbers guru, has been keeping track of the ballots. He believes it is because Republicans minds were poisoned about the alleged insecurity with mail ballots. He believes they have been waiting to vote in person for a while.
Mitchell posted a blog Saturday stating that the conservative electorate was divided over voting methods. Talk heads and party leadership promoted voter fraud conspiracy theories. Many of their voters were motivated to vote.
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In 2020, Democrats were also warned by the Postal Service that they would deliver their ballots via donkey train. They should mail them in advance. He says that this attitude could be continuing into the current year.
Voters had already returned 24%, or 25%, of all the ballots that were mailed to them as of Saturday. Democrats had returned 28% of their ballots while Republicans sent back 25%. Independents received 16%. More than twice as many Democrats voted for Republicans.
Mitchell states that we have to assume that the final turnout will be over 50%. That is the type of turnout Newsom requires.
It's not surprising that something else is taking place. Republican voters are hanging with right-leaning parties and in danger of hanging their heads.
Republicans have not learned from their mistakes. Since Ronald Reagan 55 years back, there has not been a California conservative elected governor. He was moderate and governed.
California's electorate is also becoming more liberal. PPIC surveys reveal that 40% of likely voters consider themselves to be liberal, while 29% consider themselves moderates and 31% conservatives.
Republicans are not adapting to the new reality. Instead, they have been returning to a mythical California from the past, according to Mike Madrid, a GOP strategist and outspoken critic against Trumpism.
It's a martyr complex. They consider themselves the last remaining Alamo.
Mark Baldassare, president of the PPIC and pollster, said it this way: Republicans must find a way to win with candidates who appeal not only to their party but also to those outside of the party.
Republicans had an outside chance, if not the only one, of regaining relevance in state politics during the recall election. They seem to have wasted it.
If enough moderate Democrats and independents voted yes to the recall, the GOP could have won the governor's office. Newsom was replaced by Republican candidates. Legally, he couldn't replace himself. Newsom pressured all other prominent Democrats not to participate in the contest.
However, most Democrats and independent voters won't support a right-wing Republican. Even if Newsom is recalled, voters will not recall him or her, even if they aren't crazy about the incumbent.
This seems to be the reality. The PPIC poll shows that Larry Elder, right-wing talk radio host, is leading the race for the replacement race. He is supported by 57% Republican voters. He has enough emotional baggage from his 30 years of shock radio rhetoric that he can arm Newsom with plenty of ammunition to scare Democrats into voting for the recall.
Newsom now has a gift: The abortion issue, which was historically a win for California Democrats, is now his new gift. Newsom is shaming Elder for his opposition to abortion rights, after Texas' conservative Supreme Court gave the green light.
Kevin Faulconer, a moderate San Diego Mayor, was originally believed to be the Republican candidate who would have the best chance of replacing Newsom. He supports abortion rights.
Faulconer, in an attempt to protect his right flank among Republicans, announced that he had voted in support of Trump in the fall. This reversal of his anti-Trump stance made Faulconer persona non grata for many Democrats and Independents.
Madrid claims that he was in a position where he could be an alternative to Gavin Newsom but he wasted it by climbing onto Donald Trump's lap.
Faulconer was sucked in with conservatives even though Elder had entered the race in middle-July.
Rob Stutzman, a GOP strategist, says that, except for Faulconer, none of these Republican candidate have tried to appeal to Democrats and independents, which is how blue states elect Republicans.
It's simple math: California doesn't have enough conservatives to elect a governor that doesn't attract millions of moderates, even in a recall.
This story first appeared in Los Angeles Times.
