Marcus Spears believes Baker Mayfield's clutch improvement and Browns' roster depth will make this a great season for the QB. (1:24).
To create projections for the 2021 NFL season's 285 games, ESPN's Football Power Index simulated them 20,000 times. This large sample allows us to make the most accurate projections, which is what we most often want. Today, however, we will be focusing on Simulation No. 13,330
Combining those 20,000 simulations -- that use past performance, expected starting quarterbacks, and projected win totals to create a strength rating for each team -- gives us a good idea about what we expect to happen. However, nothing goes according to plan. Every year surprises happen, and any team can win on any given day. We're now looking at one simulation instead of all our projections.
To give you one possible outcome for the 2021 season, we played every game of that simulation. This includes projected winners and losers, possible storylines in the division-race stories, surprise contenders, and an idea of how the 13 playoff games might turn out. We get a Super Bowl LVI winner who ends the drought, and a top five draft order for 2022. This is quite a surprise.
Is it possible? It might. This simulation is only one. We used creative license to describe potential breakout stars, quarterback controversy, and other details. Let's get into it. Here are 12 key takeaways.
Jump to:
Super Bowl
Jags' hot start yields ... a playoff berth?! What?
Trevor Lawrence, the Jacksonville Jaguars' rookie quarterback, kicked off his NFL career with a win. Urban Meyer's team capitalized on a slow start to the season, beating Houston, Denver, and Arizona before losing to the Bengals. It then rebounded with a 31-14 win over Tennessee. No matter what the opponent, a 4-1 start is nothing worth laughing at.
Records Through Week 5 Record AFC NFC Chiefs, Colts 4-1 Browns Jaguars 49ers and Panthers
Rams, Washington 3-2 Bills Dolphins
Steelers, Titans Buccaneers and Cowboys
Packers and Falcons
Vikings 2 Chargers, Jets
Patriots and Raiders
Ravens Lions, 1-4 Bengals, Broncos
Texans Bears, Cardinals,
Giants, Saints 0-5 Eagles Seahawks
Even though the Jaguars were able to cool off following their rapid start, Jacksonville finished 3-5 in its next eight games. However, their early-season work was a success. Lawrence's solid rookie season was helped by a strong connection with Laviska Shenault Jr. who received 90 receptions to help Jacksonville earn a 9-8 record as well as a wild-card spot in the AFC.
The Jaguars' story did not end there. They also won a playoff match. We'll get to that more later.
Justin Fields to the (eventual?) rescue
Is it possible that the Chicago Bears are making a mistake by starting the season without Andy Dalton as their quarterback? Simulation No. 13330 shows that they did. They did, in Simulation No. 13,330.
Chicago began the season with a 1-3 record before inserting Fields and pulling the plug on Dalton. The move didn't make much difference at first. Fields lost his debut against Raiders, and then suffered two brutal games against the Packers (and Buccaneers) where he took a combined 11 sacks while leading the offense to only 10 points in both of the losses. Chicago fans started to look forward to 2022 as they sat at 1-6. The Ohio State fans enjoyed the Fields version over the years, and Chicagoans began to look at Soldier Field.
play 1:18 Which QB has the best career prospects: Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields? Ryan Clark explains why the No. Justin Fields, the 11th pick in the draft class of 2021, has the potential to be the best player.
It was first a surprising win at home against 49ers. Next came a victory on the road against the Steelers at Heinz Field. The Ravens and Lamar Jackson were beaten, followed by a win over the Bears. The Bears were not done yet.
The 7-9 Bears traveled to Minneapolis to face the 8-8 Vikings in Week 18. Both teams are still in contention for a wild card spot. Receiver Darnell Mooney scored two touchdowns and safety Eddie Jackson intercepted one Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins. The Bears won the game 20-16. This was a remarkable season turnaround that resulted in a playoff berth. A playoff berth is still a playoff.
Seahawks crumble
It was all a trial for Coach Pete Carroll and Shane Waldron, the new offensive coordinator. They tried to let Russ cook. They tried to control the ball. They tried every possible option. It didn't matter. It didn't matter. The Seattle Seahawks failed to recapture the magic of their early 2020 offense. On defense, a weak secondary and a questionable pass rush were their biggest weaknesses.
This simulation shows Seattle starting the year with a loss... then another loss... and another. The team had a 0-8 record by midseason. Six of the six losses were by one point, but the Seahawks lost by 29 points to the Steelers in Week 6. No other team was still winless as the season reached its halfway point.
Records for Week 9 Record AFC NFC 8-1 Colts 7-2 Browns Chiefs Rams 6-2 Jaguars 49ers Washington 6-3 Patriots Packers, Steelers Buccaneers Falcons Falcons Falcons 5-4 Dolphins Raiders Cowboys, Lions
Saints, Vikings, 4-5 Panthers, 3-5 Chargers Jets
Ravens 3-6 Titans Bears Giants 2-7 Bengals Giants Broncos
Texans Cardinals, Eagles 0-8 Seahawks
Seattle lost Week 10, dropping to 0-9. Arizona won Week 11, 26-20. Seattle ended the season at 5-12 after the ball began to bounce off the Seahawks' team down the stretch. It wasn't enough for the Seahawks to avoid major changes in their coaching staff and roster.
The No. 1 overall pick goes to the Panthers The No. 1 overall pick goes to the Panthers
It looked like the Sam Darnold experiment would work. Joe Brady, the offensive coordinator, had fixed the mess Adam Gase, Darnold's former coach from New York, had created. The Carolina Panthers began the season with a 4-1 win over Darnold's Jets team in Week 1. They then went on to beat the Texans, Eagles and Saints before losing to the Cowboys. However, those opponents weren't that difficult and the 4-1 record was an illusion.
Matt Rhule's team would win one more game against the Falcons to finish the season at 5-12. This tie was dramatic and tied for the NFL's worst record with five teams. Carolina had to lose in its last week to win the strength of-schedule tiebreaker to earn the No. The Bucs were the No. 1 overall pick, beating Carolina 33-7.
Darnold will remain under contract with the Panthers until the 2022 season. However, Carolina will likely look at Spencer Rattler and Sam Howell for the top 2022 QBs next April, if this happens.
These are the remaining teams that made it to the top five. They all finished at 5-12.
2. 2. New York Giants
3. New York Jets (via Seattle Seahawks).
4. New York Jets
5. Houston Texans
Baltimore's lost season
It turned out that the league did find quarterback Lamar Jackson. It did figure out Jackson, at least when he was without any receiving weapons or his running back J.K. Dobbins. Preseason injury woes plagued Baltimore Ravens receiving corps. The team struggled to get to a 2-5 starting point and couldn't recover in time to save their season.
With a 7-10 loss season, GM Eric DeCosta enters 2022 with the same mission as he did in the previous offseason: get Jackson more weapons and keep them healthy.
Saints reach postseason with an epic closing stretch by Jameis Winston
The New Orleans Saints were at 5-6 through 12 weeks and in third place within the NFC South. There was much debate about quarterbacks as fans wondered if Sean Payton should switch to Taysom Hills for the stretch. At that point, eight NFC teams had a better record then New Orleans.
Record AFC NFC 9-2 Chiefs, 9-3 Colts, 8-3 Bills 49ers and Buccaneers
Rams, Washington 8-4 Browns 7-4 Falcons 6-5 Patriots Packers Jaguars 6-5 Chargers
Steelers Cowboys Vikings 6-6 Dolphins 5-6 Ravens Bears Bears, Lions
Saints 5-7 Titans 4--7 Jets Raiders 4-8 Eagles Panthers 3-8 Bengals Broncos
Texans Cardinals, Giants 1-10 Seahawks
It paid off, however, when Payton stayed with Winston. Winston was freed from the clutches that plagued him in Tampa Bay and the first half of the season. But they didn't disappear completely, let's just be honest -- Winston's downfield throwings to Michael Thomas, a healthy player, set the New Orleans offense on fire. What was the result? The result? In their first year after Drew Brees' retirement, the Saints would reach the playoffs at 11-6.
The Buccaneers won the division but the Saints were still favorites and entered the wild-card round. They beat the Cowboys in their first matchup.
Cowboys win the NFC East with a late push
It appeared that Washington would win NFC East in Week 13. Washington held a lead of two games at 8-4, while the Dallas Cowboys struggled to a start of 6-6.
In Week 14, however, the tides turned. Dallas defeated Washington 27-20 in Landover and then won in East Rutherford, 17-10, against the Giants. The Cowboys returned home to beat Washington in 38-10, and then they won in East Rutherford with a 17-10 win over the Giants. They also ended the four-game winning streak with a 27-24 victory over the Cardinals. This sealed the division. Washington closed the year with six consecutive losses.
As mentioned, Dallas' playoff success and comeback was not enough to win the title. The team lost 24-16 at home against the Saints.
Play 1:45 Spears - Cowboys are under pressure from McCarthy Marcus Spears and Sam Acho. They debate who is feeling more pressure between Mike McCarthy & Dak Prescott.
Colts win the regular season; Colts fall in the postseason
Carson Wentz's rebound experiment? It happened. It happened again. Frank Reich and Wentz, who would be named Coach of the Year, were doing their work as if it was 2017. The Indianapolis Colts won six of their first six games, and nine of the first ten overall.
Wentz was not the only one who excelled; defense also shined brightly for most of the season. Indy was able to hold five opponents -- the Titans Ravens Jets Jaguars Jets, Raiders, Jets and Jets -- to single digit points. DeForest Buckner, the defensive tackle, was a key player in the unit's success. He recorded a career-high of 14 sacks. Indy's defense gave up 17.3 points per week during the regular season. This is No. The Buccaneers, Browns, Rams and Rams are all at the top of the NFL. Indy's defense was also the best. The Colts won the AFC South with a final score of 13-4.
Here's a quick overview of how the 32 teams finished in the regular season standings.
Final simulation regular season standings: The division winners are the top four seeds of each conference. Seed Nos. Each conference has 5-7 seeds. Conf.
Seed AFC NFC 1 Bills (12-4) Buccaneers (13-5) 2 Colts (12-4) 49ers (12–5) 3 Browns (12–5) 6 Steelers (10–8) Saints (10–8) Rams (9–8) Bears (9–8) Bears (9–9) Bears (8–8) Vikings (9–9) Eagles (8–9) Titans (8–9) Eagles (8–9) Washington (8–9) 11 Raiders (7–9) Lions (7–10) 12 Ravens (7–10) Falcons (7–10) Falcons (5-12).
Indy was in for a surprise in the playoffs. The Colts tied for first place in the NFL, but fell short of the No. The tiebreaker gave the Colts the No. 1 seed, and they will host Jacksonville in round two as a double-digit favorite. In Week 10, Indianapolis had previously beaten the Jags. However, Trevor Lawrence gave Indianapolis an insight into the future by taking down the Colts 23-17. The Jaguars lost 31-14 to the Bills the week after.
Trey Lance sparks 49ers into divisional round
Jimmy Garoppolo held on to his starting quarterback job longer than you might think, as the San Francisco 49ers performed well for the majority of the season. This was until Week 12, when the 49ers lost three straight games to the Seahawks, Bengals, and Vikings. Coach Kyle Shanahan made a change and San Francisco only scored 14 points in the two remaining games.
Lance was his full-time partner and he saw immediate results. To close out the season, the 49ers won four straight games and finished at 12-5. They also easily won the NFC West division which was less competitive than many expected. The average of 27.7 points per game scored by the Niners during the regular season was second only to the Bills' (30.9).
Lance narrowly beat Justin Fields, his draft classmate, in the wild card round. He won 20-17. The 49ers were beaten by Green Bay, NFC North champions. Green Bay won 28-23 thanks to Aaron Jones, Packers running back. Jones also caught two touchdowns for Green Bay.
Postseason: Chiefs beat Browns
The Cleveland Browns lived up the hype. Although they didn't win the championship, the Browns delivered a great season and an impressive punch to the best football team. The soft start to the schedule allowed Cleveland to win six consecutive games against the Texans and Bears as well as the Vikings, Chargers and Cardinals. The Browns were 12-5. QB Baker Mayfield had his best season as a professional and finished fifth in QBR. The receiving team was led by Odell Beckham Jr., who has been rejuvenated.
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The Mayfield-OBJ connection drove a 35-30 win over the Steelers in a barn-burner round. But it was the rebuilt defense which earned the Browns a surprising 20-12 victory against the Chiefs in divisional round. This gave them a ticket to the AFC Championship Game. Cornerback Greedy Wilkins threw in a huge interception against Patrick Mahomes and Jadeveon Clowney, an edge rusher, forced a crucial turnover. Kansas City won the AFC West with a score of 11-6, as we expected.
In the end, the Browns lost. The No.1 AFC team was facing off. The Bills were the No. 1 seed. Their offense was unable to keep up with Josh Allen. Mayfield had two picks in a 27-13 defeat. Buffalo reached the Super Bowl for only the second time since 1993.
Green Bay knocks out defending champs
It wasn't a certainty that Aaron Rodgers 2020 MVP campaign would lead to another great season. But it did. The Packers went 11-6, and finished exactly the same as last year when they faced Tom Brady in NFC Championship Game. Rodgers defeated Brady and the NFC's No. 1-ranked Buccaneers.
Green Bay defeated the Buccaneers, 39 to 26, in Tampa Bay with four touchdown passes by Rodgers. Two to Davante Adams and two to Robert Tonyan. Rodgers was able to win another Super Bowl ring with the win. Here's a quick overview of how the three first rounds of the playoffs went:
Round of wild-card:
(AFC) No. 7 Jaguars defeat No. 2 Colts, 23-17
(AFC) No. 3 Browns defeat No. 3 Browns defeat No.
(AFC) No. 4 Chiefs defeat No. 5 Dolphins, 27-24
(NFC) No. 2 49ers defeat No. 7 Bears, 20-17
(NFC) No. 3 Packers defeat No. 3 Packers defeat No.
(NFC) No. 5 Saints defeat No. 5 Saints defeat No.
Round divisional:
(AFC) No. 1 Bills defeat No. 7 Jaguars, 31-14
(AFC) No. 3 Browns defeat No. 4 Chiefs, 20-12
(NFC) No. 1 Buccaneers defeat No. 5 Saints, 28-24
(NFC) No. 3 Packers defeat No. 2 49ers, 28-24
Conferencing championships
(AFC) No. 1 Bills defeat No. 3 Browns, 27-13
(NFC) No. 3 Packers defeat No. 1 Buccaneers, 39-26
Illustration by ESPN
Bills win Super Bowl LVI
They did it! They won the Super Bowl for the first time, completing an amazing season that saw them as serious contenders. Buffalo was 13-4 during the regular season. QB Josh Allen defeated Patrick Mahomes to win the league's MVP award.
In Week 13, Buffalo lost a thrilling 45-42 game against the Patriots (Patriots QB Mac Jones' future looks bright!) The Patriots won the game in a thrilling 45-42 loss. The Super Bowl opened with Stefon Diggs receiving a touchdown from Allen. Running back Devin Singletary added two scores. To seal the deal, Tre'Davious white, cornerback, jumped for an interception with just four minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Final score: 27-17
The most important stat? The most important stat? Every folding table sold out in Buffalo's grocery stores. This was despite the cold weather in Western New York.
Will the Bills be victorious in real life? We can't promise that. Our 20,000 FPI simulations show that they have a 9.4% chance to win the Lombardi Trophy. This is third best in the NFL, behind the Chiefs (19.2%), and the Buccaneers (14.1%). No matter what happens, Buffalo will always be Simulation No. 13,330
