New analysis shows that the rate at which vaccinations are given must be linked to the speed of restrictions on spread to increase freedoms and protect against the ravaging effects of COVID-19. These findings were presented by Simon Bauer, Viola Priesemann and other researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization (Germany) in the open-access journal PLOS COmputational Biology.
The COVID-19 pandemic started more than a year ago. Vaccinations programs have the potential to alleviate many of the burdens resulting from the disease, including the necessary restrictions that have had adverse economic and social consequences. Research has been extensive on vaccine distribution and prioritization and the best ways to stop spread. It remains a mystery how to smoothen the transition from an unprotected population into eventual immunity.
Bauer and his colleagues used mathematical modeling to analyze epidemiological and vaccination data from Europe, including France, England, and the U.K. They determined the rate at which restrictions could have been lifted during vaccine rollout to reduce the risk of rebound COVID-19 waves, which can overwhelm intensive care units.
The researchers considered a variety of scenarios and concluded that it is impossible to avoid more severe waves if restrictions are not lifted at the same pace as vaccination progress. There is also no gain in freedom if restrictions can be eased too fast. Even after vaccinating 80 percent of the population, new, more dangerous variants can still trigger a new wave that could overwhelm ICUs if restrictions are not lifted quickly.
Priesemann states that in such an event, restrictions would need to quickly be reinstated. This would eliminate the illusion of freedom. "An early lift would also have high morbidity or mortality costs. While there is a lot of progress made in terms of 'freedom', it seems that the pace at which vaccinations are being administered can be relaxed to allow for a lower incidence.
According to the researchers, their findings show that policymakers must not abandon high vaccination rates, especially for high-risk populations, despite public pressure. To design the best scenarios, it will take more research.
