Topline
Republican-led efforts to remove Democratic California Governor. According to a Thursday poll, Gavin Newsom is most likely to lose his office. The poll found that more than half of Californians approve of Newsom's job performance, despite some criticisms of his decisions during Covid.
California Gov. California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks at a news conference held at the California State Capitol.... [+] March 13, 2019, in Sacramento, California. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images). Getty Images
The Key Facts
According to the Public Policy Institute of California, only 39% of Californians intend to vote for recalling Newsom. 58% of Californians will vote against. The recall is seeing a huge split between partisans. 92% of Democrats said they are against it, which is more than enough to outweigh the 82% Republicans who live in the blue state and support its removal. The middle is represented by independents, 49% of whom say they won't vote in favor for a recall. According to the poll, Newsom's approval rating is 53%. It surveyed 1,706 adults in California between August 20 and 29.
What to Watch
Californians will vote on two items on the recall ballots. The first is whether or not the governor should be recalled. Second, who should replace him in case more than 50% of voters vote for recall. Voting on a replacement for Newsom will likely be moot since the first vote is unlikely reach a majority. However, polling showed Larry Elder, a conservative radio personality, was the most likely candidate for Newsom's replacement in the unlikely event that Newsom is recalled. He received 26% support in this poll. However, the highly publicized campaign by Olympic gold medalist and reality TV star Caitlyn Jenniferner isn’t having much impact. Jenner received just 1% support.
Important Background
Newsom was subject to sharp GOP criticism over his handling of Covid-19. Republicans claimed that the state's restrictions, which were some of the most restrictive in the country, had harmed businesses. However, it is unclear how much the lockdowns had on California's economy. One event, however, seemed to be driving calls for Newsom's resignation. A large party Newsom attended at The French Laundry in Napa Valley during November. Photographs showed large, unmasked indoor gathering at The French Laundry, which was against the state's Covid guidelines. Republicans were upset by the apparent hypocrisy and would gather enough signatures to hold a recall election. The election date was September 14. The recall petition was also motivated by the state's high tax rates and homelessness issues. It circulated just in time for pandemic-related shutdowns to hit the state in February 2020.
Big Number
4.7 Million. This is roughly how many recall elections have been held so far. The Democrats have outnumbered Republicans by more than two-to-1 in this process, with registered Democrats returning 2.5 Million ballots, while only 1.1 Million from Republicans.
Tangent
This is the second recall election for gubernatorial office in California history. In 2003, the first was successful. Gray Davis, a Democrat, was removed from office, and Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, was elected to his place.
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Caitlyn Jenner Enters California's Gubernatorial Race. (Forbes).
Heat is On: More Questions about California Gov. Newsoms Controversial Dinner (Forbes)
Who voted in the California recall so far? Many Democrats, very few young people (Los Angeles Times).
