Researchers at the University of Washington have made an influential prediction that covid-19 will cause more deaths in America over the next few months. Between now and December 2021, they predict that approximately 100,000 Americans will die of the pandemic. They also believe that mask usage could reduce the number of deaths by almost half.
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These numbers were provided by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the most experienced forecasters during the pandemic. They released their latest briefing on August 25. They predict that the current pandemic peak will occur in early to mid September, based on reported deaths, hospitalizations and reported cases. Their model predicts that by December 1, there will be 739k reported deaths from covid-19 in the U.S., just over 100,000 more than the official toll. The IHME estimates that there will be over 1.15 million excess deaths by then. This includes deaths directly related to covid-19, but could also include other deaths indirectly linked to the pandemic.
These projections are only estimates and there may be variance depending on how the pandemic spreads and our response. The IHME takes mask usage into consideration when estimating deaths. They project that if universal mask coverage (approximately 95%) is achieved within the next week, there will be approximately 50,000 fewer deaths in December 1. They project that there will be 812,000 deaths total by December 1 in the worst case scenario. This is approximately 72,000 more than their baseline forecast.
Wearing masks can save as many as 50,000 lives. This is how important these behaviors are, Ali Mokdad (a professor of health metrics sciences and IHME researcher at the University of Washington) told the AP.
Recent cases in the U.S. have been much higher than those in other countries, due to the transmission of the deadly Delta virus. The U.S. currently reports more than 1,000 deaths per day and more than 100,000 Americans are being hospitalized. This may be due to a lack of vaccine coverage.
Although more Americans are being vaccinated these days, it is still lower than in other countries. Only 52% of Americans have been fully vaccinated. Although there are some concerns over the effectiveness of vaccines in the past or with Delta, most hospitalizations and deaths still involve people who have not been vaccinated. Children are experiencing the highest rates of hospitalizations during the whole pandemic. However, their overall risk of serious illness from covid-19 is still much lower than that of adults.
If these numbers prove to be accurate, it will confirm several negative aspects of the U.S. pandemic this year. It is now likely that there will be more Americans who die from covid-19 by 2021 than in 2020. As of December 31, 2020, the number had reached 350,000 deaths. In addition, more Americans will have died in a period when highly effective vaccines were made available. The first vaccines reached the public around mid-December lastyear. These vaccines may have saved over 140,000 Americans, according to one estimate.
