This is a common refrain these days. The government will choose science over Covid. There are times when science or politics can take you in completely different directions, as the uncertainty surrounding the UK's vaccine program shows.
NHS England is preparing to roll out both third booster Covid vaccines and extend vaccinations to the majority of 12- and 15-year-olds. The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), however, hopes that one or both of these will be available in September.
One problem: The governments vaccines watchdog to which ministers have publicly devolved all decision on such matters has yet to make a decision on the programmes. Some members dismiss the September deadline for being unrealistic.
Although no ministers have yet spoken out, it is well known that Covid infections are increasing and there are predictions that they will skyrocket amid the social petri dishes of students returning to English schools next Monday. Officials are becoming a little anxious.
Currently, only 12- and 15-year-olds who have clinical vulnerabilities or live with people at risk get jabbed. The governments Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation has yet to decide if the policy should be extended to other age groups, despite it already being done in the US and many other European countries.
One official stated that JCVI was very close to the front in this decision.
It is important to go into autumn feeling like you did everything possible. It is not always easy to understand why we haven't made a decision about some things that are moving forward in other places, or are things where there's a good reason for doing them.
The DHSC declared that it had asked the NHS to start widespread vaccinations for 12- and 15-year olds. This was in response to ministerial desire. The DHSC stated that the NHS was working on a school-based program of jabs.
It might seem obvious that the public and political imperatives for health are clear. It is, however, more complicated than you might think.
It is not right to give vaccines to children in order to protect others. Although people that age may become very ill or have long-term Covid, it is extremely rare. School vaccinations are intended to protect young people from spreading the virus to those who are more at risk.
Although this may seem strange, or even philosophical, it is a fundamental tenet in public health. To consider individual risk versus community benefit, some JCVI members have been known to desire further research on the possible side-effects vaccines can have on young people.
Clearly, the benefits of Covid in harm reduction for adults are very clear. However, the harm reduction for children is much lower, according to Stephen Evans, an expert in the safety of medicines at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
It is very rare for children to have severe Covid diseases. Therefore, it is important to make sure they don't have any adverse effects that would not alter their risk and benefit and not only take into consideration any benefit to the community.
A second concern is the potential impact on vaccination programs for other diseases that have been reduced due to the pandemic. This could be caused by vaccine fatigue (especially if someone reacts to a Covid jab) or the concentration of finite vaccine resources on one particular health issue.
One scientist stated that jabs for the clinically vulnerable 12--15-year-olds were being done in vaccination hubs. However, an expanded programme would be needed in schools due to factors like the different training required to vaccinate children who are more likely to faint.
Recent JCVI minutes revealed this week that 20% less teenagers in England were vaccinated against certain cancers, meningitis and other fatalities after last year's lockdown.
According to the scientist, dying from vaccine-preventable cancer oro-genital in 30 years or meningococcal sepsis in freshers week would not be included in Covid mortality statistics. It is the responsibility of JCVI, however, to be aware of wider vaccine-related issues.
Similar problems exist with the JCVIs considerations regarding booster vaccinations. These are expected to be rolled-out for clinically extremely susceptible adults, for whom vaccine efficacy is lower, and possibly more broadly.
Israel has begun a program of these injections. However, the JCVI is still waiting to see the results from various clinical trials.
Sometimes, the delay is interpreted as a sign of splits within JCVI. However, one source stated that this was just an example of outside experts asking seemingly simple questions but which are actually quite complex.
One thing is certain: infection rates in Scotland are rising rapidly after the return to schools, although scientists disagree with this conclusion. However, as the English term begins, ministers will continue to exert pressure, however polite.
A spokesperson said that although ministers were not likely to proceed with vaccinations without a formal JCVI approval, they do wish them to reach a conclusion.
Another commentator said that while I am sure the JCVI are aware of this, they must also consider the timing of the decision. This is not a PhD thesis that can be extended for many years. It is a real-world phenomenon.
