Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during the opening ceremony for the International Military-Technical Forum (Army-2021), held in Kubinka, Moscow on August 23, 2021. AFP
LONDON. The ongoing crisis in Afghanistan presents significant risks for Russia and Central Asia, geopolitical specialists have warned. This warning comes as the Kremlin attempts to claim a victory over the U.S. Initial reactions by Russia to the Taliban's rise seemed to be to celebrate the American-backed, trained Afghan government's defeat, and the U.S.'s departure. Dmitry Zhirnov (Russia's ambassador in Kabul) praised the Taliban's conduct, saying that the group had made the Afghan capital more secure within the first 24 hours following the U.S. departure. This was despite Russia officially recognising the Taliban as terrorist organization. "The Russians feel like they have achieved major success," Kate Mallinson (associate fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House), said during a webinar hosted by Chatham House. She said that the Russians feel they will regain their influence in Central Asia and noted that Russia would likely try to strengthen its role as the region's main security guarantor. Moscow enjoys a strong military and economic hold over the former Soviet republics of Central Asia, which include Tajikistan, Uzkistan, and Turkmenistan. All border Afghanistan. Mallinson said, "But I would argue that this type of propaganda victory seems more pyrrhic rather than triumphant." Russia sent four military aircraft to evacuate 500 Russian citizens, as well as its regional allies, on Wednesday. This directive was issued by President Vladimir Putin and marked a sudden shift in the Kremlin’s attitude to the Taliban takeover. The directive came amid massive withdrawal efforts at Kabul Airport, as countries tried to evacuate people from Taliban-controlled Afghanistan before the Aug. 31 deadline. In the days following the Taliban's capture of Kabul, thousands had gathered chaotically at Hamid Karzai International Airport to seek safe passage out.
"Time is running out"
Envoys from the Kremlin insist that the U.S. shouldn't shift responsibility for Afghanistan’s collapse onto other countries. State media outlets have tried to portray the withdrawal of American troops in Afghanistan as a coup. Recently, however, the tone seems to have changed. Dmitry Peskov (Putin's spokesperson) said Wednesday that "The situation continues to develop, time is running out. The situation remains extremely tense" Putin previously stated that he hopes the Taliban deliver on their promises to restore order. He also stressed the importance of not allowing terrorists into neighboring countries. It will be more difficult than the Russians claim. CNBC's Mallinson said that even if the Taliban keep their promises, they will have to deal with asymmetric warfare, which will make it more difficult than the Russians can handle. The crisis occurs at a time when many Central Asia nations are at their lowest ebb, Mallinson explained to CNBC. He cited disenfranchised people throughout the region, ongoing coronavirus pandemic, and severe drought this year.
Russian servicemen can be seen at the Harb Maidon military training ground located 20km from Afghanistan's border. This joint military exercise was conducted by Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. TASS
Moscow has strengthened its military base in Tajikistan. This country shares an 843-mile border to Afghanistan and is hosting a month of military drills. Reuters reported Wednesday, that the Kremlin had reinforced its military base in Tajikistan. This country shares an 843-mile border with Afghanistan and is holding a month of military exercises.
Russia's influence on Central Asia
CNBC's Olga Oliker, the director for Europe and Central Asia for the International Crisis Group, said that Russia "very much acknowledges" the security risks posed by the Afghanistan crisis. This includes for Central Asia as well as for Russia. They can simultaneously be happy that the U.S. is putting eggs on its face, and anxious about the consequences. They are concerned about refugee flows and security, and fear that they might be attacked from Afghanistan. Oliker said, "If stability is maintained under the Taliban and the Taliban does not allow Afghanistan to be used as a base for attacks against Russia and Central Asia and ideally stops the flow of heroin, then Russia can accept it." But things could go wrong and Russia will look to strengthen Central Asia as necessary."
Afghans who wish to flee the country are still waiting at Hamid Karzai International Airport, Kabul, Afghanistan, August 26, 2021. Anadolu Agency
Putin condemned the notion that some Western countries want to relocate Afghan refugees to Central Asia, while visas to the U.S.A. and the European Union are being processed. Does that mean they can be sent to these countries without visas? While they [the West] do not want them to take them without visas? According to Russian news agencies, Putin stated this last week. "Why is this such a humiliating approach for solving the problem?"
Eurasian Union
