For decades, scientists have known that extreme solar storms, also called coronal mass ejections, can cause severe damage to electrical grids, and possibly even blackouts for prolonged periods. All aspects of the repercussions could be felt, from transportation and global supply chains to Internet access and GPS access. The potential impact of such a solar emissions on Internet infrastructure has been less studied. Recent research has shown that failures of the undersea cables, which underpin the Internet, could prove to be devastating.
On Thursday, Sangeetha Abdul Jyothi, University of California, Irvine, presented Solar Superstorms. Planning for an Internet Apocalypse. This was an examination of what damage a fast-moving cloud of magnetic solar particles could do to the Internet. Abdu Jyothi's research reveals an additional nuance to a solar storm that causes blackouts: the scenario in which even though power is restored within hours or days, massive Internet outages continue.
There are some positive developments. Abdu Jyothi discovered that the local and regional Internet infrastructure is not at risk even in a major solar storm. This is because optical fiber is not affected by geomagnetically-induced currents. Also, short cable spans are grounded regularly. The risks for long-distance cables connecting continents are greater. A severe solar storm could disrupt many of these cables, cutting off connectivity to countries at their source. This would also mean that local infrastructure is not affected. This would be similar to cutting off water flow to an apartment because of a main break in the water supply.
This is what really got me thinking. Abdu Jyothi explained that there was no protocol in place to effectively deal with the pandemic and that it is the same for Internet resilience. Our infrastructure isn't ready for large-scale solar events. We don't know how much damage this could cause.
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This information gap is mostly due to a lack of data. Extreme solar storms, which are rare, are very rare. There are only three examples in recent history. Geomagnetic disturbances, such as those that disrupted electrical infrastructure or communication lines like telegraph wires, can cause large-scale disruptions in the past. Large events such as 1921 and 1859 were a clear example. The massive 1859 Carrington Event saw compass needles swing wildly and unpredictably. In Colombia, the aurora borealis could be seen at the equator. These geomagnetic storms happened before the modern electrical grids were built. In 1989, a moderate-severity sunspot knocked out Hydro-Qubec's grid. It also caused a nine-hour blackout across northeast Canada. However, this too happened before modern Internet infrastructure.
Abdu Jyothi says coronal mass ejections, even though they are rare, pose a serious threat to Internet resilience. She and other researchers also point out that after three decades of low-level solar storm activity, the likelihood of another incident is increasing.
For a few reasons, undersea Internet cables can be susceptible to solar storm damage. Cables are equipped with repeaters that can be used to transmit data over oceans. Repeaters can be placed at distances of approximately 50 to 150 km depending on the cable. These repeaters amplify the optical signal and ensure that no data is lost during transit. This is similar to a relay throw in baseball. Although fiber optic cables are not directly susceptible to geomagnetically induced currents disruption, repeater's electronic internals are. Repeater failures can render entire undersea cables inoperable. Undersea cables are not grounded at long intervals hundreds to thousands of kilometers apart. This makes repeaters and other vulnerable components more susceptible to geomagnetically-induced currents. There are also differences in the composition of the seafloor, which could make some grounding points more efficient than others.
A major solar storm could also cause damage to any equipment orbiting the Earth that allows services such as satellite Internet or global positioning.
Abdu Jyothi states that there are currently no models of how this could happen. Although we have more information about how these storms could impact power systems, that is only on the ground. It's much more difficult to predict the effects of storms on power systems in the ocean.
Coronal mass ejections are more powerful at higher latitudes and closer to the Earth's magnetic poles. Abdu Jyothi is more concerned about cables in certain regions than others. For example, she found that Asia is less at risk because Singapore acts as the hub for many of the region's undersea cables and is located at the equator. The cables that run through that region are shorter because they don't form one continuous length but branch off of the hub. Cables crossing the Atlantic and Pacific oceans would be more at risk of even moderate storms.
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The internet is designed for resilience. Traffic can reroute across different paths if one route is not available. This property could keep connectivity up even in severe weather conditions. However, enough damage to these critical arteries could cause the network to be destabilized. Abdu Jyothi warns that foundational data routing systems such as the Border Gateway Protocol or Domain Name System, could become dysfunctional depending on the location of the outages. This could lead to knock-on outages. This is the Internet's version of traffic jams caused by traffic lights going out at busy intersections in major cities and road signs disappearing.
North America and other regions have minimum standards for grid operators in relation to solar storm preparedness. Thomas Overbye, the director of Texas A&M University's Smart Grid Center, said that grid operators have made some improvements in mitigating this risk over the last ten years. He emphasizes, however, that geomagnetic disruptions are rare and unstudied so other threats like cyberattacks or extreme weather events are taking precedence.
Overbye states that part of the problem is that we don't have much experience dealing with storms. Some people think that a geomagnetic disruption would cause a catastrophe, while others think that it would be less severe. I'm somewhere in between. It is something we as an industry need to be prepared for. Ive been developing tools to assess risk. There are many other important things happening in the industry.
There are many unknowns on the Internet infrastructure side. Abdu Jyothi stresses that the results of her study are only the beginning of extensive, multidisciplinary research and modeling needed to understand the full extent of the threat. Although severe solar storms are rare, the stakes for those who are affected by them are high. An extended global outage on that magnitude would have devastating effects on nearly all industries and individuals.
This story first appeared on wired.com
