A new study that focuses mainly on people who have not been vaccinated has shown that the Delta variant increases the risk of Covid hospitalisation by two-thirds compared to the Alpha variant.
Based on data from England, the analysis suggests that the Delta variant could cause an increase in health care costs, especially in areas with low vaccination rates.
It is now known that the Delta variant was first discovered in India and is far more contagious than the Alpha variant initially found in Kent. This analysis shows that Delta is able to transport people to hospital if they are infected, even if they have not been vaccinated.
Researchers analysed data from 43,338 Covid-19 patients in England between 29/03/2021 and 23/05/2021 to create the study. The study found that only 1.8% of cases had received both vaccines, 24% had been vaccinated twice, and 74% were not vaccinated.
The study showed that one in fifty patients was admitted to hospital within fourteen days of their first positive Covid tests. This compares with 2.2% for Alpha cases and 2.3% for Delta cases. The study, published in Lancet, found that the risk of hospital admissions was 2.26 times higher for patients with the Delta variant than those with the Alpha variant.
This study confirms previous findings showing that Delta-infected people are more likely to need hospitalisation than Alpha-infected individuals. However, most of those included in the analysis were not vaccinated. Dr Gavin Dabrera is a consultant epidemiologist at Public Health England and one of the study's authors.
We know from experience that vaccination provides excellent protection against Delta. This variant is responsible for over 98% of Covid-19-related cases in the UK. It is crucial that anyone who has not had two doses of vaccine be vaccinated as soon as possible.
Given the limited number of fully vaccinated participants in the study, the researchers cautioned that it was impossible to draw any conclusions about hospitalization risk between people who have been infected by either Delta or Alpha.
Whole genome sequencing was performed on samples of virus from patients to determine which variant caused the infection. About 80% of cases were associated with Alpha during the study, and the rest were associated to Delta. As the dominant variant of Alpha rose to prominence, Delta was responsible for the majority of cases in the last week of the study.
Similar findings have been made in the past. Based on PCR results, which identified the variant by testing for a particular gene that is more prevalent in the Delta variant of the virus, early data from Scotland showed that there was a twofold increase in hospitalisation rates for people infected with this variant compared to the Alpha variant.
Dr Anne Presanis was one of the study's leading authors. She is also a senior statistician at MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge. She said that the findings of the study highlighted the importance of vaccination.
Delta is more infectious than previously known. This latest analysis confirms that people who are infected with Delta are more likely be admitted to hospital.
He suggested that although most restrictions have been lifted despite high vaccination rates, cases are increasing and will likely rise as universities and schools reopen. Noting that the government's roadmap to reopening was based on the Alpha variant and not the Delta one, he said.
He noted that the plans had not been updated to reflect the Delta variant's significantly higher risk. This strikes me as a wishful thinking by not very smart politicians.
