Ministers should plan for an increase in Covid cases when schools return to school, according to the governments scientific advisors. This comes as there is still debate over whether older children should receive a Covid vaccine.
A Friday document revealed that scientists from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), the modeling group, have raised a new alarm about the potential impact of schools reopening to encourage the spread of infection.
The group predicts that schools will have a high level of prevalence by September 2021.
This could be a reflection of transmission within or between schools, although it is not clear what the role of schools in driving wider transmission. It would be prudent for government to plan ahead for such an eventuality, regardless of the circumstances.
Gavin Williamson (education secretary) dismissed concerns and told the Financial Times that they didn't want the same level disruption. My hope is that combined with the mass testing we were doing, the children won't be forced to isolate themselves.
The Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL), however, stated that the document was a recipe for chaos and that the government could not allow another situation in which children suffer more disruption and attendance collapses.
After a dramatic increase in cases in Scotland, concerns have grown about the return of students to schools in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland.
Experts believe that the increase in Scotland's population was due to changes in Covid restrictions, factors related to the end-of-school holidays, such as adult return to work, and mixing in schools, may have been important.
The new document, dated 11 Aug, states that many school-aged children won't have protection against Covid. By mid-May, only 20% of schoolchildren had immunity to infection. Moreover, vaccines are not available for children younger than 16 years of age.
Schools will have a high percentage of susceptible people and there will likely be exponential growth in the number of school-attending students after school opens. These populations will not see any difference after vaccinations, according to the group write.
Sage members advised that the preventions of transmission in schools will be significantly lower when schools reopen in England starting next week. This is in contrast to the spring and summer term. Infection rates in the community and schools-age groups will also be higher than May 2021.
The government of England has abandoned all preventive measures since the end of last school year. However, it was announced Friday night that they would be used in the new academic year in southwest England, which coincides with a rise in cases. Social distancing, bubbles (smaller groups to stop the spread of infection) and close contact with confirmed cases for self-isolation have been eliminated.
Kevin Courtney, joint secretary of the National Education Union, (NEU), stated that the Sage commentary was a reproach to Williamson.
Courtney stated that almost nothing was done to prepare for large numbers of cases, which could lead to a lot of disruption in education as staff and children will have to isolate themselves because they are positive.
NEU is asking the government to provide support for schools that take additional measures, such as social distancing and face coverings, starting at the beginning of term.
Courtney stated that the danger is not in schools and colleges being slow to act, but that of government.
The Sage document's modeling suggests that secondary school-age pupils should have immunity at 60% and 70% when they return to school. R could remain below 1, but R might rise to 40% and 50%, causing exponential growth and school epidemics.
The group stated that school transmission could be decreased by two-weekly testing. However, the group stressed that teachers and students could suffer from an increase in infections due to missed learning. Parents and carers can also be affected and there are wider implications for the workforce.
Teacher Tapp's survey found that at least one third of secondary schools in England delay teaching in order to conduct Covid exams on their students. Survey of over 4,000 English teachers and school leaders revealed that most delays are for just one or two days. However, almost one-tenth of schools will delay teaching for at least three days in order to conduct the tests.
According to Department for Education guidance, secondary schools and colleges could stagger the return students during the first week of the testing process.
Geoff Barton is the general secretary of the ASCL. He said that it was extremely disappointing that the government had failed to provide sufficient support for schools and colleges to carry out this massive logistical exercise, and again left them with what is essentially a responsibility for public health.
A Teacher Tapp survey found that the majority of teachers rated Covid guidance to schools for the new term either poor or horrible. It was not rated as outstanding by any of the teachers.
The government's weekly attendance figures for last term showed that hundreds of thousands of students were not attending school due to Covid-related reasons. This resulted in more than a million children missing school during the second week in July.
Self-isolation is no longer required under the new rules. The Department for Education will no longer publish the Covid absence statistics on a weekly basis. Instead, it will publish a fortnightly summary beginning 21 September.
James Bowen, the director of policy at National Association of Head Teachers, stated that there is no clear reason or justification for the change. According to the DfE, the chief statistician made the decision and it was based on user need.
