Qantas recently announced its plans to resume international flights. This seems extremely optimistic to me, and I would be willing bet that this will not work out as Qantas hopes.
Qantas' plans for restoring its route network
Qantas announced plans to slowly restart international operations starting in December 2021. This is based on National Cabinets' phased reopening international borders. The hope is that the Phase B threshold of 80% vaccination will be met by December 2021.
Qantas will focus on countries with high vaccination rates as it relaunches its international network. This includes those in North America, Singapore, Japan, the United Kingdom and Singapore. Let's take a look what Qantas has in store
Safe destinations resume December 2021, other safe destinations in April 2022
This plan would allow Qantas to gradually resume international service on the basis of vaccination rates in other countries.
Mid-December 2021 saw flights from Australia resume to COVID-safe destinations. These include Singapore, Japan, USA, Japan and Canada.
From April 2022, flights from Australia will resume to destinations with lower vaccination rates such as Bali, Jakarta and Manila.
Although I understand that high vaccination rates should be equated with safe destinations in theory, it doesn't seem that this is the case in practice. And Im not sure if Australia's government will see this in the same way as Qantas.
It seems that the US is now COVID-safe!
Qantas could fly between Darwin and London with Qantas
Qantas launched nonstop flights in 2018 between Australia and the UK, specifically between Perth & London. Qantas is considering the possibility of using Darwin instead as a transit point due to Western Australia's restrictive border policies. Darwin has been Qantas main entry point into repatriation flights.
Qantas believes that the demand for nonstop travel between Australia, London and Australia will increase after COVID.
Qantas could fly between Darwin and London with Qantas
Two A380s will be retired and the A380 could return to service in July 2022
Qantas currently operates 12 Airbus A380s. The airline previously stated that they would not be returning to service before 2023. The latest plan:
Five A380s will be returning to service in 2022. The Sydney to Los Angeles route will be resumed using an A380 starting July 2022. The Sydney to Singapore route to London route will resume with an A380 starting November 2022.
Qantas 12 Airbus A380s would be retrofitted and returned to service in early 2024. Two would be retired
Qantas A380s could be back in July 2022
Qantas may extend the range of Airbus A330s
Qantas' smallest wide-body aircraft is the Airbus A330. Qantas has some plans for this plane.
Qantas and Airbus are working together to increase the range of A330-200. This will allow it to fly longer transpacific flights.
Qantas would then fly A330s between Brisbane and Los Angeles and San Francisco.
Qantas could expand the range of A330s and fly them to the US, Qantas said
Qantas CEO describes Qantas's reboot strategy
Here's how Qantas CEO Alan Joyce describes Qantas' strategy for restarting flights.
Although the prospect of flying overseas may seem far away, particularly with New South Wales and Victoria locked down, the current pace of vaccine rollout means that we should be able to have much more freedom within a few months. While it is up to the government to decide when and how our international borders will reopen, Australia is on track to meet the 80 percent trigger set by National Cabinet by the end. We need to be prepared for a complicated restart process. There is a lot to do, including training our personnel and bringing the aircraft back into service. We have been able to adjust our plans as the situation changes, something we've had to do many times during this pandemic. Some might argue that we are being optimistic. However, based on the speed of vaccine rollout, this is possible and we want make sure we are ready.
Qantas seems a bit too optimist.
It is important to mention that Qantas has previously outlined its travel restart strategy many times, but none of these have been realized. This is not a different scenario.
I can see where Qantas is coming. Since travel is not something that can be done overnight and most planes have been sitting for 18 months, the airline must start to plan for how it could happen. This is also a way to increase liquidity, by selling tickets for flights that are unlikely to ever operate.
Qantas' interpretation of the Australian government policy is quite different from mine. For example, I believe that the chances of widespread travel between Australia and the United States without the need for quarantine before the year's end is very close to zero.
This is how I see it
Australia has been advocating a zero tolerance approach towards coronavirus. Even after widespread vaccinations are available, Australia intends to keep that policy in place for some time. This is based on statements by politicians.
Australia is currently experiencing a major epidemic (by Australian standards which are slightly different from Florida's). While Im not an epidemiologist, I would be surprised if it can be controlled and brought down to zero given the transmissible delta variant.
International travel must be restarted if Australia is to maintain its 80% vaccination rate. Australia also has to abandon its zero tolerance approach towards coronavirus. I have not seen any evidence that this will happen.
Australia would not only need to be open to foreigners, it also wouldn't have to jump through hoops if it wants to promote tourism.
Many interesting ideas are presented here, including extending the range of A330s in order to fly them to America, flying them from London to Darwin, and bringing back A380s earlier. However, I don't see it happening as planned.
The Qantas travel strategy reboot seems optimistic
Bottom line
Qantas new international travel strategy could see the airline resume long-haul flights in December 2021. We could see A330s flying to high-vaccination destinations, A380s returning to service by July 2022, as well as flights between Darwin, London, and A330s.
This plan seems very optimistic, unless Australia's government changes its course. The governments handling of the pandemic was popular with residents. If widespread tourism is to be resumed, Australia will have to abandon its zero tolerance coronavirus strategy.
What do you think of Qantas' strategy to resume international flights?
