Gavin Newsom won a larger share of the vote in California's 2018 election than any other Democrat. He has been popular despite a worldwide pandemic, economic disaster, and a scandalously misplaced visit to the Michelin-starred French Laundry.
Newsom is fighting for the political life with California's gubernatorial recall elections underway. A narrow loss of the Democratic governor in a deep-blue state to a fringe rightwing radio host could result in part from inertia or apathy among voters.
California has a nearly two-to-one ratio of Democrats to Republicans. However, while the former seem distracted and disengaged, this year the latter are more focused and engaged, according to pollsters and political strategists. Republicans may be able to win the governor's seat for the first-time in a decade if they vote at higher rates.
Related: California recall race: The right-leaning contrarian is leading
According to a survey by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, only 36% of registered voters wish to oust Newsom. However, that number jumps to 47% when you poll likely voters. A CBS News poll revealed that 72% of Republican voters felt motivated to take part in the recall. Only 61% of Democrats did the same.
The turnout among Republicans is expected to be much higher than that of Democrats, and will likely be even higher for voters who do not have a preference party. The polls director Mark DiCamillo said that almost all Republicans support Newsom's ouster and that a greater proportion of likely voters are voting "yes" because they favor Newsoms removal.
Newsom spent the last few months describing the recall effort in Newsom's eyes as a fringe Republican distraction. He launched his Vote no recall campaign just one month before the deadline of September 14th to return ballots. He and the Democratic party now need to mobilize voters. We implore all of you to vote. He pleaded this at a Los Angeles campaign event.
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Newsom does not have to worry about the Democratic base voting in the recall election, according to Dan Schnur (a political professor who advised Republican candidates). He must be concerned about them not voting.
Larry Elder poses with supporters during a campaign stop at Norwalk, California in July. Photograph: Marcio Jos Snchez/AP
California's unique recall system is partly responsible for the race's dynamic. Two questions are asked on the ballot. The first is: Should the governor be recalled or not? If so, then who should be the governor? If more than 50% of voters vote yes to the first question, then the candidate receiving the most votes for question two becomes governor. This means that, even if Newsoms is supported by 49.9% of voters, he can be replaced with a candidate who has earned far fewer votes. Larry Elder, the Republican frontrunner and right-wing radio host, leads the polls as a replacement candidate with only 18% support.
They hope that Democrats will not be interested enough, stated James Lance Taylor, a University of San Francisco political scientist. Elder can get in through the backdoor and become Governor of California because not enough Democrats will vote.
Democrats across the country are becoming more nervous about this possibility.
I am very concerned about the close poll numbers, and very concerned that people seem distracted or unaware," Sydney Kamlager, a Democratic state senator, vice-chair of California's legislative Black caucus, stated. She has been encouraging constituents to vote no on the recall.
Many Californians are too distracted to pay attention amid a continuing pandemic and destructive wildfires. Christian Arana is vice-president at the Latino Community Foundation. This is especially true for Latino and Black voters, who have helped propel Democrats to power every year. According to polls, white conservative voters will win recall while voters of color will stay at home.
This virus is still affecting Latino communities, particularly with the Delta variant. Arana stated that we have seen more deaths in our community. Because we are so involved in the economic and emotional consequences of this virus and the pains it has caused, recall elections are not something that we have been thinking about.
Latinos make up 39% of the country's population and 28% of all registered voters. In 2018, Latinos voted almost by a 2-1 margin for Newsom. However, a CBS News poll revealed that about half of Hispanic voters would vote in Newsom's recall.
Related: California's governor recall election heats up. Here's what you should know
Now Governor Gavin Newsom is traveling across the state to present his case. He met with a San Diego business owner, Barrio Logan, and supporters at a Los Angeles Mexican Restaurant. Along with Barbara Lee of Oakland and Karen Bass from Los Angeles, he appealed to progressives. In the hopes of energizing voters, he has Kamala Harris joining him this week on the campaign trail.
He stated that the stakes in this election were unimaginable, in a statement announcing his arrival as vice-president.
Newsom and Democrats have so far focused more on these stakes than any other aspect of Elders Ascent. Why is Larry important? To put it in perspective, Newsom spoke at a campaign event. Some claim he is the most Trump-like of all the candidates. I think he is even more extreme than Trump.
Political strategists warned that the tactic could backfire among an electorate whose emotions are fueled by fear and trauma. Arana said that campaigns must convey a message about hope. Communities should stand by them.
