Mapping possible routes for early humans out of Africa using climate models

The Arabian Peninsula and Northwest Africa have different environmental conditions. Reconstructed precipitation conditions at various points in time are illustrated on maps (ae). The dark blue areas are thought to have been sufficiently moist to support human persistence for most of the millennium. Red areas are likely to be long-term unsuitable and only orange, yellow and light blue areas could be inhabited during intermittent periods. A, c and d correspond to key exit times based on genetic or archaeological evidence, while b illustrates difficult conditions within the window of opportunity. The elevation map (f), shows the 120k year old Neanderthal range. Nature Communications (2021). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24779-1
Researchers from the University of Cambridge and a colleague from Tartu have found evidence that early humans had multiple migration options to Africa. This could be in the wake of the mass migration of 65,000 years ago. The group published a paper in Nature Communications that describes how climate models can be used to map possible migration routes for early humans.

The majority of evidence suggests that early humans moved from Africa to the Arabian Peninsula, and then to Eurasia around 65,000 years ago. Dog researchers have pondered the question: Why? Many in the field believe it was due to human maturation and opportunities that made the path to Arabia more favorable to human existence. A map of northern Africa shows that migrating to the Arabian Peninsula is a difficult task. There is no land route other than across the vast desert that covers the Sinai Peninsula. You can also cross the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb to what is now Yemen.

The logic suggests that humans could have survived on grasses that had begun to grow in the Sinai during a period of more rainfall. Researchers argue that such conditions would likely have happened many times in human history. To determine if this was true, the researchers first assumed that early hunter-gatherers would have to live in an area with at least 90mm of rain per year to survive. The researchers used that figure to guide them as they looked at climate models that had been created by previous researchers. They showed likely rainfall amounts in areas that humans are most likely to migrate. The researchers found that both the easterly and northerly routes were suitable for such migrations several times in the past 300,000. Scientists believe that the mass migration event took place in the same time frame as the longest window of opportunity, which was approximately 30,000 to 65,000 years ago.

Researchers note that they have found evidence that early humans could have migrated to the Arabian Peninsula and possibly further before the mass migrations. However, their research does not provide any explanation for why they did not survive until then.

Continue reading: The Arabian Peninsula Research Team traces ten millions years of climate history

More information: Robert M. Beyer and co, Climatic windows to human migration from Africa over the past 300,000. Years, Nature Communications (2021). Information from Nature Communications Robert M. Beyer and colleagues, Climatic Windows for Human Migration Out of Africa in the Past 300,000 Years, (2021). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24779-1

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