Covid claims 100 lives a day on average across the UK, statistics show

Official statistics indicate that Covid claims 100 lives per day in the UK.
However, the numbers tell only a small part of the story.

Academics and scientists are comparing the profiles of people who are dying to determine how they compare with previous waves.

What do we know?

Covid has had a dramatic impact on the age of people who die from it.

The under-65s were responsible for only 11% of all deaths at the peak of January's second wave. They accounted for 25% of all deaths in recent weeks.

However, the total number of deaths is significantly lower this time. 652 deaths occurred in the UK during the week ending on 13 August. The figure was 9,056 for the week ended 22 January.

Kevin McConway is an Emeritus Professor of Applied Statistics at The Open University. He points out that of the 571 Covid deaths in England and Wales during the week ending 13 August, only 7% were under 50.

He points out that the last time there were more than 571 deaths in the UK in a single week was in March 2019. At that time, only 4% of those killed were under 50. If you look back to mid-October 2020, overall death rates were similar. Only 2% of deaths due to Covid were among people under 50.

The effectiveness of the UK's vaccination program, which prioritized age-based cohorts of people, is one reason why older people are dying less often than in previous waves.

Experts would expect that almost all deaths due to Covid from elderly people would be prevented if vaccine coverage were equal across all age groups. However, younger age groups aren't vaccinated at the exact same rate as older ones. This is leading to a relative rise in the number of people who die from Covid.

We had no vaccines in October and most older people had been vaccinated in March, but not with both doses. He said that the increasing number of Covid deaths among younger people clearly has to do with vaccination.

It would be alarming if people were not getting older.

You can still die from Covid even if you are vaccinated.

There is overwhelming evidence to show that vaccines can prevent severe diseases and death. However, there are still flaws.

Public Health England reports that 57% of the 1,189 Delta deaths between 1 February 15 August were confirmed to have been caused by the second jab.

According to Dr Kit Yates (a senior lecturer in mathematics biology at the University of Bath), most of the adult population has been fully vaccinated. This makes it more likely that those who do die will be vaccinated.

Even if everyone was fully vaccinated there would still be some deaths. However, that does not mean vaccines can't reduce death.

Men are at greater risk

Although Covid is caught at a similar rate, men still die more than women. This could be due to a combination of biological and behavioral factors. 59% of the 571 deaths in England and Wales during the week ending 13 August were men.

The death rate will likely continue to rise

Within 28 days of positive tests, Tuesday saw 174 deaths. Scientists predict that case rates will rise again as schools and universities reopen soon, likely to be followed by an increase in deaths.

Early UK data indicates that antibody levels drop in the weeks and even months following the second jab. However, it is not clear what effect this has on the ability to protect against serious disease or death.

Prof Sheila Bird, who was formerly a member of the Medical Research Councils biostatistics section at Cambridge University, said that we need to remain alert and cautious.