Taliban members patrolled the streets of Jalalabad, Afghanistan, on August 17, 2021 as the Taliban took control of Afghanistan following the departure of President Ashraf Ghani. Anadolu Agency
The Taliban's quick takeover of Kabul last week has prompted world leaders to rush to evacuate their citizens. Analysts warn that the effects of the Islamist militants’ control over Afghanistan will have repercussions beyond Afghanistan's borders. The Taliban took Kabul's capital, Kabul, more than a week ago. This was the end of the civilian government that collapsed when the U.S. pulled its military presence before the deadline of Aug. 31. Experts told CNBC that the international community will have to deal with three problems as the Taliban takeover continues to reverberate around the world. These include a rise of terrorist activities, an influx refugees fleeing violence and persecution from Afghanistan, and escalating tensions among India and its neighbours, Pakistan and China.
1. Terrorism is on the rise
Experts warned that Afghanistan could become once more a "hotbed for terrorist activity" and provide sanctuary for extremists. Richard Fontaine CEO, Center for a New American Security, stated that the Taliban have "never" broken their alliance with al-Qaeda in the past two decades despite military pressures and negotiations in Qatar. The United Nations reported this year that the Taliban and al-Qaeda were "still closely aligned" and showed no signs of breaking ties. These claims were previously denied by the Taliban.
Although the militant group claimed it will not allow terrorist groups to use Afghanistan as their base for attacks, some analysts questioned its commitment. "The Taliban doesn’t really adhere to its ideals. We'll have to wait and watch," Amir Handjani (a fellow at Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft) said last Tuesday on CNBC's Capital Connection. It reportedly released between 5,000 and 7,000 prisoners from Parwan prison, some of them Taliban fighters. Fontaine explained that the U.S. believes it can deal with any threat from Afghanistan. "We'll find out how effective that is, if that happens." He said that he thought it was a gamble. Afghanistan was a safe haven for terrorists when the Taliban ruled in the late 1990s. After the terrorist attacks on the Pentagon and World Trade Center, Sept. 11, 2001, the U.S. invaded Afghanistan. John Bolton, a former U.S. national security adviser, said last week to CNBC that the invasion was meant to exterminate the Taliban and the "sanctuary" they provided for al-Qaeda.
2. 2. Refugee crisis
The impending refugee crisis is being watched closely by many. It's a similar situation to 2015, when over a million Syrian refugees fled war-torn Syria in search of refuge in Europe. Shamaila Khan, AllianceBernstein's director of emerging market debt, said that it is likely that there will be an influx of refugees almost anywhere the [Afghans] are able to go. According to Shamaila Khan, director of emerging market debt at AllianceBernstein, "We can see that they are desperate for leave. So if they can find any route to any country, they will go." She spoke to CNBC's "SquawkBox Asia" last Tuesday. Social media was flooded with images of Afghans fleeing the country at the Hamid Karzai international airport. One video shows a U.S. military plane trying to take off, while Afghans run alongside it and hold onto the aircraft's exterior as it lifts off.
Fontaine, CNAS, stated that the refugee flows from Afghanistan's collapse could rival Syria's volume in a press release written before Kabul fell under Taliban control. The United Nations High Commissioner For Refugees estimates that more than 6.6million Syrians have fled their country in the past five years. According to the UNHCR, at least 550,000 Afghans were internally displaced by conflict and insecurity in this year. The UNHCR noted that civilians have fled to other countries only occasionally, but this trend will change as the situation in Afghanistan changes. Eurasia Group analysts stated in a recent report that concerns over an influx of Afghan refugees by the European Union may be exaggerated as the bloc has taken steps towards reducing irregular migration. Turkey's anti-refugeee sentiment could lead to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan taking a more aggressive stance against migrants. Eurasia Group stated that any refugee influx to the EU will be manageable.
3. 3.
The political chaos in Afghanistan could spread to neighboring countries and possibly exacerbate tensions between India, Pakistan, and China. According to Elizabeth Threlkeld (senior fellow and deputy director, South Asia Program, Stimson Center), Indian analysts worry that the Taliban's return could open up terrorist groups like Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba to launch attacks on Indian targets. She told CNBC that they also recognized the possibility of a Taliban government gaining significant influence in Kabul. This would be detrimental to India. India seems to be content to wait and see for the moment. Threlkeld, who was previously a foreign officer in Pakistan with the U.S. State Department, explained that if an attack on Indian targets were to come from Afghanistan, New Delhi would probably "certainly point out Islamabad the finger of responsibility."
