Research shows that the climate crisis made it nine times more likely for deadly flooding to occur in Germany and Belgium in July, according to researchers.
The study also revealed that downpours in the region have become up to 20% more severe due to human-caused global warming. This confirms the landmark Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes report, which stated that the main cause for worsening extreme weather is greenhouse gas emissions.
Recent months have seen devastating flooding in China and western Europe, extreme heatwaves across North America, and forest fires in Russia and Turkey.
According to the World Weather Attribution group, as temperatures rise, central and western Europe will be more vulnerable to extreme flooding and rainfall. Climate change was also a factor in the recent North American heat dome. The global warming has also increased the likelihood of heatwaves in Siberia in 2020, and in Australia in 2019-20.
These floods have had a devastating effect on the economy and human lives of many countries. We need to be prepared for future extreme weather events and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to prevent them from happening, stated Prof Maarten van Aalst, University of Twente, Belgium. He is also the director of the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. At least 222 people were killed and huge damage was caused by the flooding in Germany and Belgium.
Van Aalst, along with 38 other scientists, carried out the new study using meteorological measurements, high-resolution computer models, peer-reviewed research methods, and high-resolution computer models. The study compared extreme rainfall frequency in the current heated climate to the frequency that would be expected in a world without human-caused climate changes.
The climate crisis has made extreme rainfall between 1.2 to nine times more likely. It also found that downpours in the region are now 3 to 19% to 19% stronger. Global heating makes the air hotter and can hold 7 percent more water vapour for every 1C increase. Scientists believe global warming has had an impact on the range of probabilities. However, this is due to the many climate models that were used.
After heavy flooding caused by the River Erft, severe damage was done to Bad Mnstereifel in Euskirchen, Germany, on the 20th of July, residents cleared the debris. Photograph: Sascha Steinbach/EPA
The study was focused on two areas in particular affected by the floods: the German districts near the Ahr, Erft and German rivers where 93mm (3.66inches) of rain fell in one day and the Belgian Meuse area where 106mm fell over the course of two days. Because of the destruction of hydrological measurement stations, scientists couldn't analyze river levels.
Enno Niilson, from the German Federal Institute of Hydrology, stated that the Ahr's peak water volume was equal to the Rhine's upper reaches. Van Aalst said that although it is rare, we should be more prepared for it.
Friederike Otto, Oxford University, stated that these floods have demonstrated that even developed nations are not immune to the severe effects of extreme weather. This is a global problem that needs to be addressed immediately. Science is consistent with this conclusion for many years.
Professor Hayley Fowler from Newcastle University stated that in order to reduce casualties as well as costs, emergency warning systems, and resilience of infrastructure, must be improved.
Another July research found that global warming could make catastrophic flooding more common in Europe. High-resolution computer models were used to calculate that slow-moving storms could be 14 times more frequent over land by the end the century, in the worst-case scenario. The more rainfall a storm dumps onto a small area, the higher the chance of severe flooding.
