Despite all the excitement and buzz that the San Diego Padres offseason brought, the goal was not to look up at the Cincinnati Reds on August 23rd. You are either mediocre or worse if you look up at the Reds. After losing their fourth of five games to the Phillies yesterday, the Padres are now in this position. The Manfred Experiment (extra innings) was their only win. The Padres have one win in regulation from their 11 last games, and two more in extras. They are currently out of all playoff spots, having lost 19-25 games since July 1.
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How did the ship of hope and joy crash so badly? It's easy to point out injuries. Fernando Tatis was out for two weeks during that stretch and is now the lineup anchor. Three-fifths are on the shelf with Yu Darvish being the latest to be placed in cold storage. Dinelson Lamet and Chris Paddack have been there since the end of June. Their Roster Resource page currently lists only three healthy starters, which is not a good way to live.
It is not that easy. Joe Musgrove, who was one of six no-hitters in this season's baseball season, went from All-Star-worthy within the first two months to OK/good since. It might not have been structural or through methodology, because Musgrove had some very lucky BABIP numbers during the season's first 60 days. His BABIP against was.237 in the first half of the season, which is unsustainable and miserly. It is.317 in half two, which is well over his career norms, but could be classified as the wicked goddess of market correction. He's just finding more holes, not giving up on the contact.
The Padres have received just about everything they could reasonably ask for in Darvish. Problem would be if the Padres were asking for Darvish who didn't give up home runs in 2013. Darvish's HR/9 has increased more than twice this year compared to last, but his career record of 1.44 is more consistent with this years. His July ERA was over 7.00. He gave up more home runs than usual, averaging three per game. He hit the IL in August with an ERA of 6.00. Darvish was not seeing any significant change in the power or type of contact against him. It just so happened that Darvish was clearing more fences for BASEBALL than anything else. It is obvious that Darvish has been throwing his four-seam fastball less often over the course of the season, and it has been hitting harder and harder. It hasn't lost velocity or moved. It was not producing whiffs. In fact, in the first four months of this season, his whiff percentage was at least 37 percent. It was 20% in August, which may be why he's still on the shelf.
Blake Snell is the biggest disappointment since he was traded from Tampa Bay in the late-December trade. But it could have been one the Padres had anticipated. Snell was enjoying a meal at a restaurant that served the 2018 Cy Young Award. However, it had a lot of air. Snell's Tampa Bay team that year had a.241 BABIP and an 88.9% left-on base rate. These are not numbers you can repeat. Snell has not come close to the plate since then, and this year his walk percentage is 13.7. All stats via FanGraphs
Another problem that the Padres have faced is their homer problem. They are not getting enough innings from their starters due to injuries, Darvish's homer problem and Snells walks. They are dead last in league innings by starters and lead the NL with reliever innings. The Rays are the only team that throws more innings from the pen than the Padres. They do this by design and distribute it. Only one Rays reliever has thrown over 50 innings. Four are available for the Padres. The Padres have four. August's ERA for Padres relief pitchers is a full run higher that it was in previous years. It's not as if they are spring chickens, with all important San Diego relievers over 30.
Another factor that the Giants are focusing on is the Padres pitchers' inability to defend, which may explain their pitchers' ballooning BABIP numbers. In terms of Defensive Runs saved, the Padres are amongst the worst in NL. They are third with Manny Machado and second with Jake Cronenworth. He will be playing shortstop with Fernando Tatis in outfield. Speaking of the outfield: San Diego has not been able to defend well, which is unfortunate when you have one the largest outfields in the game in sheer volume. Tatis Jr.'s trial by fire will not help.
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While the Padres were celebrated for making trades in the winter that did not require them to give up any of the most-prized prospects they had, almost none of those prospects have helped this team. MacKenzie Gore made six Triple-A starts and was shelled. Reiss Knehr made seven appearances at the big club but has a Snells walk problem. Ryan Weathers is only in the rotation on an emergency basis. Hes been gasoline. This is all for the pitching assistance near the top.
Although the Padres will not be concerned about 2022, it will be an interesting watch. Darvish and Snell have been locked in. It is unlikely either of them can be moved, since Darvish, who will be 35, has another injury-plagued season on his resume, and Snell will be off his numbers. Musgrove is arbitration-eligible. They might get Mike Clevinger back and perhaps Lamet or Paddack can remain healthy. There are many possibilities.
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It is hard to see how the major problems will improve over the last five weeks. Snell won't be able to pitch, even though he knows where the plate is. Darvish will not likely provide innings after an injury. More bullpen games will be played, which is a good thing considering how they got there in the first place. It's not just the Dodgers that will be arriving in town this week.
This isn't my beautiful home, in fact.
Updated Aug. 23, at 1:35 PM EST: Shortly after posting this column, the Padres announced that Larry Rothschild, their pitching coach, had been fired.
