Chinese State Councilor Wang Yi and Foreign Minister Wang Yi meet with Mullah Abdul Gani Baradar (political chief of Afghanistan's Taliban), in north China's Tianjin on July 28, 2021. Li Ran | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images
China was the first country to express willingness to engage diplomatically with Taliban militants after they won power in Afghanistan. Analysts say it's a pragmatic decision, but relations could prove difficult due to Beijing's strategic interests. According to Derek Grossman (a Rand Corporation senior defense analyst), Beijing has been planning for the Taliban's possible return to power for many years. He said that the Taliban have been talking with Beijing for years, "unofficially," on Wednesday's CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia". The relationship between China, the Islamist militant group and China is "tricky," according to Ian Johnson from the Council on Foreign Relations. Beijing targets religious extremism in Xinjiang among ethnic minorities Muslims.
China and Afghanistan share an international border. A spokesperson for China's foreign minister stated that Beijing was ready to "develop good-neighborliness" and friendly cooperation with Afghanistan, just hours after Kabul's capital fell to the Taliban. Spokesperson Hua Chunying stated that Beijing was open to the Taliban's declarations about wanting to "grow sound relations" with China. The militant group said that it was looking forward to China's involvement in Afghanistan's reconstruction and development. The Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met in July with Mullah Abdul Ghani, the head of the Afghan Taliban's political commission.
Beijing would be open to working with [the Taliban] on the one hand. However, Islamist groups within Xinjiang pose a serious problem. Ian Johnson Council on Foreign Relations
The Uyghur Muslims are a minority in Xinjiang. The United States, United Kingdom, and United Nations accuse China of human rights violations including forced labor and large scale detentions in Xinjiang. Beijing refutes these claims. Johnson, the CFR's Stephen A. Schwartzman senior fellow for China Studies, stated that China could face problems if they have an Islamist party running a neighboring nation. It seems strange that Beijing would agree to cooperate with the Taliban, at least from an optical perspective. He also said that Islamist groups in Xinjiang pose a serious problem.
Extremist threats are feared
According to Eurasia Group notes, China is concerned that Afghanistan could become a refuge for the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (Uyghur extremist organization). Analysts wrote that Beijing fears the group might launch terrorist attacks as a response to "widespread persecution of Uyghurs." According to Neil Thomas (China and Northeast Asia analyst at Eurasia Group), Chinese authorities might be looking to defend their country against terrorist attacks by building relationships with the Taliban. He told CNBC via email that Beijing hopes to convince the Taliban to recognize China's security interests in Afghanistan by offering them economic assistance.
Thomas stated that China's move to engage with Taliban is a pragmatic one. Rodger Baker, senior vice-president of strategic analysis at Stratfor, said that it makes "perfect sense for Beijing." He said that the Chinese have shown that they are willing to work with any country that has a presence in the region, as long as the side is able to protect China's interests. He suggested that this could include maintaining stability in the region so that China's Belt and Road infrastructure projects are not stalled and preventing terrorist attacks.
Taliban members patrol Kabul, the Afghan capital, on August 16, 2021 as the Taliban take control of Afghanistan. This is after President Ashraf Ghani fled. Anadolu Agency
Hua, spokesperson for the foreign ministry, stated that China maintains contact with the Taliban "on condition of fully respecting Afghanistan's sovereignty and all factions within the country." She added that the Taliban had assured Beijing it would not allow any force to use Afghan territory for acts of aggression to China. Thomas stated that China will do everything it can to keep the Taliban on its word, but that there are still many questions about the unity of the new regime and how extreme it is.
In question: Formal ties to Taliban
China has "laid groundwork" for the Taliban and is making preparations to do so, Johnson of the CFR said. However, it's not clear if Beijing will recognize them as the government of Afghanistan. Johnson also stated that the CFR does not believe the West wants anyone to confirm the Taliban. He said that it might take some time. Beijing might want assurances that the Taliban will be "a normal government" and not commit mass killings before they officially recognize them.
He said that if the Taliban behaves "more normally," China will likely recognize it "at some time" before Western countries. Grossman, Rand Corporation, echoed this sentiment and noted that China might feel it's time for the Taliban to be recognized as a legitimate governing entity. He said, "But they've also stated that they want to ensure that the Taliban makes a 'clean breaking' with terrorist proxy countries."
China may have asked its diplomats not to leave Afghanistan in order to establish trust with the Taliban regime. Neil Thomas Eurasia Group
