As Afghans wait for their turn to board the US military aircraft, US soldiers guard them. This was August 19, 2021. Photo by SHAKIB RAHMANI/AFP via Getty Images
New criticism has been raised about the US withdrawal in Afghanistan's turmoil.
Critics claim that the US should leave Afghanistan because it benefits China. China will then use its absence to further its own interests.
Experts believe that the US is not at risk by leaving China alone to deal with an instabil neighbor.
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More criticism has been levelled at the US withdrawal from Afghanistan due to the Taliban's rapid rise to power in Afghanistan.
This warning was issued by former and current US officials, as well as other observers. However, experts told Insider that China's exit from the United States will likely raise new concerns and not cause any significant strategic damage to the US.
Mid-June, Gen Frank McKenzie (US military operations in the Middle East), said that he believed China would seek economic benefits in Afghanistan following the US's departure.
McKenzie stated that he believes they would love to enter for the mass mineral resources found on the ground in Afghanistan, and other locations.
Later in the month, Rep. Mike Waltz (a Republican and ex-Green Beret) suggested that Afghanistan's Bagram Airbase could be used for operations against China, specifically against ICBM facilities located in western China.
Taliban fighters are seen encircling the Kabul Interior Ministry, August 15, 2021. Stringer/Reuters
Waltz stated to General Richard Clarke, head of US Special Operations Command that if you ever are asked to engage in any kind of unconventional warfare against the Chinese Communist Party it is notable that most of their new nuke capabilities are located in western China, 400m from Bagram.
Experts from outside the government argue that the US withdrawing reduces its ability to deter China. This will cause problems that will diminish the benefits of withdrawing.
H.R. McMaster, a former general and national security advisor to President Donald Trump, stated this week.
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Chinese officials and state-linked media gloated over the withdrawal's chaos, using it as an opportunity to promote a narrative about US decline, China as a global force, and threaten Taiwan.
A spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said Tuesday that "Wherever the US steps foot in Iraq, Syria or Afghanistan, we witness turbulence and division, broken families. deaths and other scars in what it has left."
Pyrrhic victory
Chinese policemen patrolling the border of Kashgar, Xinjiang, July 12, 2021, from the Pamirs plateau. Costfoto/Barcroft Media via Getty Images
Beijing is not as smug as it seems.
In July, Insider was told by Daniel Markey, an international relations professor at Johns Hopkins University. He said that China's interests in Afghanistan are "dominated by security considerations".
Beijing is most concerned about the Taliban and other fundamentalists, such as Uighurs, causing trouble, either indirectly through threats to Chinese interests, especially in Pakistan, or directly through activities in China, Xinjiang Province being one example, Markey, an expert in South Asia.
Chinese officials fear that the Taliban's quick victory will empower these groups, and are skeptical about the Taliban's ability to crack down.
The US withdrawal has rekindled discussion about China's economic involvement in Afghanistan. However, with the increased instability and uncertainty surrounding Afghanistan's new rulers it is not clear that China will reap the benefits.
Afghan soldiers standing outside a compound for Chinese workers, which is building a road to transport coal to the Aynak copper mining project. March 7, 2009. Jonathan S. Landay/MCT/Tribune News Service via Getty Images
Markey stated that the US encouraged Chinese investment in Afghanistan at times. However, "results have been modest at best." Two large projects that were started in Afghanistan a decade ago have stalled and there has been little talk about extending the Belt and Road Initiative.
In July, a Taliban spokesperson stated that the group would ensure the safety of Chinese workers and investors in Afghanistan. However, security concerns will likely continue limiting Chinese investments in the country, according to Sean Roberts, an international affairs professor at George Washington University.
Roberts, a Central Asia expert, stated that the US military presence had benefited "the security of these interests."
Markey stated that China already has "cultivated direct relationships" with different Afghan groups. China may have to navigate between these factions if there is renewed resistance to Taliban rule in Northern Afghanistan.
Beijing will likely rely heavily upon Pakistan to keep Afghanistan stable, but it remains to be seen if Islamabad's competing factions can come together to achieve that goal.
Roberts stated that Beijing would prefer to not get involved in the Afghan security situation or internal politics. However, this will become more difficult with the US military withdrawal.
Wakhi man, in Afghanistan's Wakhan Corridor mountains. This area borders China. Tom McShane/Loop Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images
According to Gil Barndollar (a senior fellow at Defense Priorities), the US withdrawal has little effect on China's security, but it does have a limited impact on its ability to counter China militarily.
The border between Afghanistan and China, which is roughly 60 miles long, is mostly mountainous terrain at high altitude. "This tiny piece of Afghanistan borders western China. Barndollar said that this doesn't provide much.
This region is far away from Chinese industrial, military and population centers. In a major war, the narrow frontier "makes it much easier for the Chinese to target anything passing through it," said Barndollar, who was twice deployed to Afghanistan as Marine.
Biden's administration has dismissed the importance of a military presence to Afghanistan in countering China and other neighbouring countries like Iran.
Barndollar stated that there is a small silver lining to this problem. "We should look forward to transferring that problem onto... regional power."
China's'real test'
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Mullah Abdul Gani Baradar (political chief of Afghanistan's Taliban), in Tianjin China, July 28, 2021. Li Ran/Xinhua via REUTERS
China has been less welcoming to the Taliban over recent days after it received backlash from home.
A spokesperson for China's Foreign Ministry stated Friday that the top priority of the international community was to support and encourage various factions and ethnicities in Afghanistan to... create an open and inclusive political structure that is accepted and respected by the Afghan people.
Roberts stated that although it isn't clear if China can stabilize Afghanistan, the US shouldn't be afraid to try.
Roberts stated that the US should embrace China's participation in Afghanistan, rather than consider it a threat. It is a test to see if Beijing can be responsible on the international stage.
When asked by Insider in July if there were any strategic concerns regarding an increase in Chinese presence in Afghanistan's, John Kirby, the Pentagon's chief spokesperson, stated that countries interested in assisting in Afghanistan should "do so with Afghan people first in mind and...with a spirit to support a negotiated solution."
Critics have suggested that the slow withdrawal from Afghanistan means the US will continue to pay attention to the country and not be able to provide resources for the country. However, Biden has stated that the benefits of ending this war are obvious.
Biden stated this week that "our true strategic rivals - China, Russia - would like nothing more than for the United States to continue to channel billions of dollars worth of resources and attention into stabilizing Afghanistan forever."
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