There is confusion and overreaction in the overlap between when European soccer season starts (this season: August 8) and when summer transfer window closes (Aug. 31,). We react to early impressions of a team, but we don't know who will be there for the remaining 90% of the season.
- Transfer grades: Each major summer move is rated
Ogden: What top clubs need to do
Carter: Big club players need a move
We were already able to get a good sense of the stakes for this transfer window even before four of Europe’s Big Five leagues started recently (the fifth, Italy’s Serie A starts this weekend). Some clubs have made major moves and some are looking to make big deals.
We have two weeks to go before the window closes. Let's take a look at those teams that haven't addressed their last year's problems or simply had their roster worsen since the 2020-21 campaign. They haven't had the worst offseasons as we haven't seen them on the field yet. However, financial problems or other pursuits aside, we do know who has more work ahead of them.
Teams that failed to address their needs and get better on paper
Key acquisitions: DF Ben White (Brighton), MF Martin Odegaard (Real Madrid), MF Albert Sambi Lokonga (Anderlecht), DF Nuno Tavares (Benfica)
Important departures MF Joe Willock, Newcastle
Arsenal's greatest problem last year was shot quality. They were 11th in Premier League in xG per shots. Arsenal needed an attacking option to counter the ageing stars Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who are both one year older than the other -- they were, if you believe any rumour mills (and whenever Barcelona is involved, it's probably on their way out).
Lokonga could be a good option for pressure relief if early signs are correct. He was a great substitute for Thomas Partey, who was injured in the 2-0 loss at Brentford. White and Odegaard will receive the majority of the transfer budget for this window. They spent the second half of 2020-21 at Arsenal. White was only solid for Brighton last season, and he is almost 24 years old. However, White and Odegaard are both quality options in possession and it appears that Arsenal is actually building for the future.
Arsenal's greatest problem in recent years has been a terrible lack of long-term planning. That's a win! This list is not about who got better or worse for the upcoming season. It's becoming more apparent that last year's biggest problem could be even greater this time.
Play 1:49 Fjortoft. Bayern Munich is facing a problem with Robert Lewandowski. Jan Aage Fjortoft explains.
Manager Julian Nagelsmann (RB Leipzig), DF Omar Richards, (Reading), DF Dayot Umelcano (RB Leipzig), DF Omar Richards
Manager Hansi Flick (German National Team), DF David Alaba, Real Madrid (DF Jerome Boateng), DF Jerome Boateng (free Agent) are the key departures
Flick's Bayern system had a high, chaotic defensive line. Bayern held their opponents in their pitch half, and unloaded non-stop high-quality scoring opportunities... but sometimes gave up very high-quality transition chances. They were great from a spectator standpoint but they lost the Champions League quarterfinal against Paris Saint-Germain to it. It also meant that they had to work harder in league play. They allowed the second-fewest shots and the second-worst average xGOT/SOT (post-shot xG of shots on target divided with total shots on target).
It was likely that you got a shot against Bayern.
Flick was replaced by Nagelsmann. The Leipzig team was strong in possession and allowed only one goal per match. Nagelsmann could have called it breaking even, but Bayern was at best able to make a profit from a personnel perspective, losing Alaba and Boateng, and only bringing in Upamecano. They have depth problems in the back, which was immediately exacerbated by injuries sustained to Lucas Hernandez and Benjamin Pavard.
Bayern are still Bundesliga favorites due to their bizarre attacking personnel. They've already beaten Borussia Dortmund in this season's young season. But it's hard to argue that they're better off than last season.
Key acquisitions: DF Ibrahima Conate (RB Leipzig).
Key departures: MF Georginio Wijnaldum (PSG), FW Harry Wilson (Fulham)
Liverpool has been a club that sticks to a long term plan. However, it was severely tested last season when nearly every center-back on their roster was injured. In January, Schalke's Ozan Kabak was loaned to them. They also had to purchase Ben Davies from Preston North End's Preston North End. However, they ended up relying on Kabak, Rhys Williams, and Nat Phillips (whom they chose not to sign after the loan expired).
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Despite an aging team and the gap in the midfield caused by Wijnaldum’s departure (and veteran Xherdan Shahiri also likely to be leaving soon), the club adopted a "let’s make sure it doesn’t happen again" approach. They used all of their transfer cash on Konate. Although it makes sense in one way, this is still a very big risk. They still have two weeks to fill the other gaps.
Joel Matip and Virgil van Dijk, two of last season's injured stars, lined up at the center-back during the season-opening victory against Norwich City. Konate is still waiting for his official debut. Although the Reds have plenty of back strength, is it still true elsewhere?
Play 1:49 Why is Guardiola under pressure to sign Kane and not wait for Haaland? Gab Marcotti gives a unique perspective on why Pep Guardiola might feel the pressure to sign Harry Kane this year and not wait for Erling Hailand.
Acquisitions key: MF Jack Grealish, Aston Villa
Key departures: FW Sergio Aguero (Barcelona), DF Eric Garcia (Barcelona)
Pep Guardiola will have a lot fun with Grealish, and as De Bruyne gets closer to being fully fit, City may have two of the most creative players in Europe while still moving forward. It's going be great to see Grealish reach fifth gear, even though there will be growing pains.
City's creativity was not an issue last season. The center-forward position was. Gabriel Jesus was also absent for the majority of the first half of last season, while Aguero was in constant pain throughout the entire season. City managed to overcome this problem with the help of almost everyone. They even received a goal-scoring binge by midfielder Ilkay Gundogan as they were climbing up the table. There's a reason Harry Kane, Tottenham Hotspur's Tottenham Hotspur's goalkeeper, has been a major plot line this offseason.
It's unclear when or if that pursuit will succeed with only two weeks left. Is there a backup plan for City if that doesn't happen? They have lost all three of their competitive matches, including the Champions League final, 2021 Community Shield, and Sunday's season opening against the Kane-less Spurs, by a margin of 1-0. Are they comfortable riding at the center-forward with Jesus and Ferran Turres if Kane doesn’t move to town? They should be.
Acquisitions of key importance: DF David Alaba (Bayern Munich).
Key departures: DF Raphael Varane (Manchester United), DF Sergio Ramos (PSG)
Real Madrid lost two central defenders at the start of the season, and only one was available to replace them. Los Blancos, however, had more squad questions than Bayern. Although their technical accuracy is unsurpassed, the starting line-up in Saturday's win over Deportivo Alaves was comprised of players between 35 and 33 years old (Luka Modric), 32 to Karim Benzema, 31 to Gareth Bale, 31 to Nacho, 30 to Eden Hazard, and 29 to Thibaut Courtois and Thibaut Courtois.
Play 1:29 Laurens - Kylian Mbappe won't leave PSG this summer Julien Laurens said Real Madrid can do as much as they like, but Kylian will be playing for PSG.
Although they won 4-1, they played well. However, while we know that they will make a major move for Kylian Mbappe at PSG whenever they feel they have the funds, it is unlikely that they will do so in the next two week. Last season's lineup was already a bit too old. With Bale's loan return, the current roster is even more age. It will be difficult for them match last year's semi-disapointing level if they are injured or inconsistent.
It's even worse on paper
Key acquisitions: manager Peter Bosz (Bayer Leverkusen), DF Henrique (Vasco de Gama)
Manager Rudi Garcia, FW Memphis Depay(Barcelona), DF Joachim Andersen (“Crystal Palace”), MF Jean Lucas („Monaco”) are key departures
Rudi Garcia struggled for two years to transform on-paper quality into real results. Lyon was third in xG differential in 2019-20. However, they finished seventh in the league in an abbreviated year. They ranked fourth in xG differential in 2020-21 but finished fourth overall. They also missed Champions League play for the second consecutive year.
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Lyon's offseason moves included trading Garcia for Bosz (who was fired in March from Bayer Leverkusen after falling out the race for a Champions League spot), and Depay for Moussa Debele. Dembele scored twice against Manchester City in Lyon's Champions League quarterfinal defeat in 2020. However, he only scored half as many goals in 21 league appearances with Lyon and Atletico Madrid (with whom he spent half of 2020-21 on loan). It was difficult to call either of these moves upgrades. Two matches into the season, a 1-1 home draw against Brest and a crushing loss to Angers -- it was 3-0 and felt like 6-0 -- they have not done anything to prove otherwise.
Acquisitions of key importance: FW Adam Armstrong (Blackburn), DF Romain Peruraud (Brest).
Key departures: FW Danny Ings, DF Jannik Vestergaard and DF Ryan Bertrand (Leicester City).
Each of Southampton's offseason moves made sense in a vacuum. The combined value of nearly $60 million for two 29-year olds (Ings & Vestergaard), is solid. Both Perraud, 23, and Armstrong, 24, were successful last season for smaller clubs. Armstrong was more than just successful. He scored 28 goals for a second-division Blackburn team and also scored for the Saints in their season opener.
They're still at a net deficit, even if they make any more moves. Even if Armstrong's plan works out, the Saints are still at a net loss up front. They also have a gap in the back. Everton shredded the center-back duo Jack Stephens and Mohammed Salisu. Jan Bednarek may also be an option at the back but it seems that Southampton is still looking for a Vestergaard replacement. It could be a long season without one for the team, which already had the lowest Premier League point total after February 1st last year.
Play 0:55 Marcotti would like to see Koeman complete 90 minutes with Barca Gab Marcotti said that even though he is a frequent critic, Koeman is good at isolating himself and his team.
Key acquisitions: manager Simone Inzaghi (Lazio), MF Denzel Dumfries (PSV Eindhoven), MF Hakan Calhanoglu (AC Milan), FW Edin Dzeko (Roma), DF Zinho Vandheusden (Standard Liege)
Manager Antonio Conte, FW Romelu Lukaku(Chelsea), DF Achraf Haikimi (PSG), FW Matteo Politano (“Napoli”), DF Ashley Young („Aston Villa”) are key departures
Inter has done well considering the difficulty. You don't want to lose a top manager and have to cut payroll. This Inter version might not be able to progress beyond the Champions League group stage, depending on how the draw is drawn. However, there is enough talent to compete for a Champions League spot in a crowded Serie A higher tier.
Inter has a solid back line, stars like Lautaro Martnez and Nicolo Barella. But, let's be honest, there is no other way to go than down once you lose Conte Lukaku, Hakimi, and Lukaku. While they should be competitive and interesting while reducing their debt, their chances of repeating the Scudetto are probably not great.
Barcelona has made some improvements this offseason, with Memphis Depay joining and Sergio Aguero joining. However, losing Lionel Messi means this summer has been not great, regardless of how you look at things. David S. Bustamante/Soccrates/Getty Images
Key acquisitions: FW Memphis Depay, FW Sergio Aguero(Manchester City), DF Eric Garcia(Manchester City), DF Emerson Royale (Real Betis).
Key departures: FW Lionel Messi (PSG), DF Junior Firpo (Leeds United)
The above section can be rephrased as "key departure: greatest scorer of all time." Barcelona has more talent than Inter and is unlikely to fall too far down in the La Liga table. While they have veteran players like Gerard Pique and Jordi Alba, and Sergio Busquets who are "this is how it's done" here, they also have young talent such as Frenkie de Jong Pedrai and Ansu Fati (when 100%) and others. They still have high-scoring options with players like Antoine Griezmann and Depay, as well as Martin Braithwaite who scored twice against Real Sociedad, despite being the subject of transfer rumors.
They don't have Messi. Aguero won't be available for them anytime soon due to injury. Barca's ceiling has already fallen a little in previous seasons and it is almost impossible to prevent it from falling further this season.
Manager Jocelyn Gourvennec and MF Amadou onana (Hamburg), are key acquisitions
Manager Christophe Galtier (Nice), MF Bourbakary Soumare, Leicester City), GK Mike Maignan(AC Milan), FW Luiz Araujo (“Atlanta United”) are the key departures
You had to have a very sketchy offseason in order to finish higher than The Team That Lost Messi. Lille did so. The stingiest defenses allowed Les Dogues to win the 2021 Ligue 1 title. They allowed 0.61 goals per match (first league), 0.83 xG (first), 0.09 shots per possession (second), and 0.09 xG per shot (first). Their magical defensive manager, however, left to take up a lower job. Two of their primary components, Maignan, a solid goalkeeper, and Soumare, a key defensive midfielder for blocking out transition opportunities, also left the team for $36 million.
They also hired Gourvennec as a replacement for their manager, a man they hadn't seen in two years. His only success was in leading Guingamp through the 2014 Coupe de France, and then advancing them to knockout stages in the 2014-15 Europa League. His plan may work, but Lille has allowed seven goals in its first two Ligue 1 matches. This is more than they allowed in 12 of their previous matches. To draw Metz, they needed two late goals with a man advantage. Galtier's Nice then defeated them 4-0.
Lille was able to defeat a second-choice PSG team to win the Trophee Des Champions on August 1. But they are looking at all of the league right now. Lille is a Pot 1 team in next week's Champions League draw. It goes without saying, however that most Pots 2-4 teams will be hoping for a place in their group.
