There are less than 90 days before COP26, an annual United Nations conference on climate change, which will be held in Glasgow, Scotland, this November. The pressure is intense for countries to limit global temperatures rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
2015 Paris Agreement required commitments to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees C. This has strengthened the need to set a new 1.5 degrees C goal. Already, temperatures have risen by 1.2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. This has led to devastating floods, fires, droughts, and distressing headlines. Each degree Celsius increase in temperature will have devastating and expensive repercussions, especially for low-income countries and the most vulnerable people.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), a multigovernmental organization that determines global energy policy, is now under pressure to communicate this information to its member countries, businesses, and markets. It does this by focusing on a 1.5 degree Cconsistent pathway in its highly-read annual publication, World Energy Outlook (WEO).
In 1974, during a bruising oil crises, the IEA was established. It has since been a powerful source of market analysis and data. The IEA also has a broad mandate to provide affordable, reliable, and clean energy. Nearly two-thirds of the greenhouse gas emissions from humanity are linked to energy. To keep global warming below 1.5 degrees C, it is crucial to reduce energy emissions quickly.
The IEA doesn't recommend a particular level of acceptable warming. However, its WEO scenarios are crucial for business and political decisions. They outline the feasibility associated to achieving different policy goals. In 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations body that assesses climate change science, made a significant shift in international policy focus. It revealed that to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius would require economic and social changes on a scale and speed not previously documented.
Now, the question is how do we get there? Recent science has shown that 1.5 is no longer viable and there are no other options to avoid catastrophic consequences. The IEA's upcoming WEO is described as a Google Map for global energy markets. It could prove pivotal if it aligns with 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The previous WEOs contained a variety of scenarios. However, the central Stated Energy Policies Scenario(STEPS) is the reference case. It receives the most attention and detail. STEPS describes the consequences of not taking any additional climate action, ranging from 2.7 to 3 degrees Celsius of warming. The IEA says that showing insufficiency of current policies is valuable. However, governments, investment analysts and businesses as well as media should be cautious when using the reference case to guide decision-making.
The IEA's inability to align the core WEO scenario at 1.5 degrees Celsius isn't the only reason it has not kept up with technological change and scientific advances. Civil society and the scientific community have both criticized the IEA's modeling of its bias toward the fossil fuel-based status quo. The agency also underestimates the growth potential of renewables. This could hinder the transition to renewable energy. #FixtheWEO calls for the replacement of the central scenario in order to reflect the imperative to stay below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
While the IEA is showing signs of progress, it is not certain that 1.5 degrees Celsius will be the de facto goal. The U.K. COP presidency requested that the IEA release its first comprehensive study on how to transition to a net-zero energy system by 2050 to give the world a chance to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C. This was a major shift in the IEA's messaging. The IEA did not call for increased oil and gas investments. Instead, it concluded that there was no need to invest in new fossil fuel supplies. This is contrary to their own plans for fossil fuel expansion. The world will need to see the differences between countries' Paris Agreement commitments, and take policy action before COP26.
The WEO is used by investors and policy makers to guide trillions of dollars in energy investment. Its scenarios could be a self-fulfilling prophecy, either toward a 1.5 degree C aligned future, or worsening climate crises. 60 representatives from policy, academia and civil society wrote an open letter to Fatih Birol (executive director of the IEA), arguing that the reference case does not reflect the pace and level of change required and chart a dangerous course. Framework Convention on Climate Change joined the fray, calling 1.5 degrees Caligned WEO the golden key to unlocking policy development and capital deployment.
While holding warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius poses serious technical and economic challenges, the alternative would make it less habitable. A guiding framework that supports policy coherence and directs investment towards a stable climate is essential to ensure a livable world. With global energy growth exceedingly outpacing decarbonization will be necessary in order to achieve a livable tomorrow.
The WEO could be centered on a 1.5 degree C scenario to model the market paths that would allow countries, businesses and communities to work together towards this goal. The IEA will be highlighting this path in the WEO 2021 as negotiators work out the future of climate action. This could mark a pivotal decade.
This article is an opinion/analysis article. Scientific American does not necessarily endorse the views expressed in it.
