Free Guy Photo by Alan Markfield
Free Guy, which earned a respectable $10.5 million on Friday, further supports the idea that last weekend's underperformance wasn't solely due to the circumstances in the release. This includes $2.2 million in previews on Thursday, which points to a $26million opening weekend. Given that we are talking about a star-driven Hollywood mega-hit ($100-$125m), starring Ryan Reynolds, an actor who has struggled commercially beyond his role in Deadpool, I would argue that this one would have a decent opening weekend, even in non-Covid times. It's almost unbelievable in today's Covid-stricken world. It will, regardless of whether it is right or wrong, add to the theatrical exclusivity that still matters. This is Disney's first major theatrical-only release since the pandemic.
This is especially true when there are generally positive reviews (81% fresh, 7/10 average critic score of Rotten Tomatoes), and an A from Cinemascore. Its positioning as the last biggie this summer (depending on how Shang-Chi's Labor Day release fits into this). The majority of the new releases over the next two month will be horror films (Malignant and Candyman, The Night House etc.). or adult-skewing flicks like Queenpins, Reminiscence and The Card Counter. Venom: Let There Be Carnage was pushed to October 15. There is only Marvels Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings for real four-quadrant competition, until (fingers crossed) No Time to Die in October. It's not surprising that there would be real legs to this thing. Perhaps the tagline "They needed a hero and got one" was correct.
It's a fun movie, and the marketing didn't tell you much about it. (Including that Jodie Comers is more than a fantasy fighting f***toy). So the viewer will feel the excitement of discovery. Cruella, which earned $225 million globally, did not include the Disney+ Premier Access revenue. Free Guy had a much more responsible budget than the likes Jungle Cruise ($200m), Space Jam: A New Legacy (150 million), and The Suicide Squad (185 million). This doesn't mean that Free Guy is yet a success. Normal times, Free Guy would be looking for $100 million domestically and $200 million globally. With a boost in China, it could reach that amount. The opening day and presumably the weekend are enough to incite optimism.
Sony released Dont Breathe 2 this weekend, five years after its predecessor, which was a failure ($155 million globally on a $9million budget). Stephen Lang, a blind ex-Navy Seal, is this time an anti-hero. He fights off vicious home invaders who would like to kidnap the girl he cares for. This is a strange turn, especially when you consider the events in the first film. Spoiler: He had an evil secret in his basement), but horror is supposed at least to be a little uncomfortable. The turn works well until the end, which is a Hayes Code old-school requirement. The film made $4.365million on Friday. Thursday previews earned $965,000 as well. This puts the film on track for a $10.35million debut weekend.
Although it is a lot less than the $26.5 million launch of Screen Gems in August 2016 and Stage 6 Films don't breathe in August 2016, there was still a drop in installments. The world wasn't waiting anxiously for Norman Nordstrom's next violent adventure. However, the fact that the film grossed $10 million over the weekend suggests at least some marquee status. This sequel, directed and written by Rodo Sayagues, and Fede Alvarez (original Dont Breathe helmer), would have been a huge success in normal times. However, the $10 million budget for this opening qualifies it as a disappointing failure. This is yet another example of the importance of original programmers with reasonable budgets.
MGMs Respect made $3.53 million Friday. The Aretha Franklin biopic, which stars Jennifer Hudson as the legendary singer, is now expected to make $9 million in its debut weekend. This is similar to Harriet's $12 million debut in pre-Covid days. However, this film cost $55 million to make. This film has a lot of work, despite the fact that it was budgeted in precovid times and likely with the hopes to ride along a traditional awards season (even if Hudson's performance is the only one). This film could have been a bigger success in better times. It could have been, but it might not have done as well as Chadwick Boseman's James Brown biopic ("Get On Up") which made $33.3 million with a $30 million budget.
