Got Plans For Sept. 24, 2182? This Asteroid is Big!toggle caption NASA/Goddard/University of ArizonaBennu, a potentially dangerous asteroid, has a 1:1,750 chance of striking Earth between now & the year 2300.This is based on the most accurate calculations of an asteroid’s trajectory that NASA has ever done, and the odds are slightly lower than NASA had previously believed.However, researchers who study Bennu claim that this doesn't keep their awake at night."The impact probability increased just a bit, but it isn't a significant change," said Davide Farnocchia from the Center for Near Earth Object Studies at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California.He also points out that Bennu's impact trajectory is 99.94% unlikely.He said, "So there's no reason to be concerned." "We have the time to continue tracking the asteroid until we find a definitive answer."Bennu, a "rubble pile asteroid", is larger than the Empire State Building and has a shape similar to a spinning top. It was discovered by telescopes in 1999. NASA considers Bennu, along with another asteroid called 5050 DA, to be the most dangerous known asteroids in the solar system.NASA launched the OSIRIS REx mission in 2016 to gather samples of Bennu's rock and learn more about its size, shape, and composition. After arriving at Bennu in 2018, the spacecraft spent approximately two years hovering around it, looking for clues and then returning to Earth.Researchers have unprecedented insight into the location and potential future of this asteroid thanks to all its measurements. The team considered all small influences to predict the asteroid's future path. This included the sun hitting Bennu, the tiny gravitational force of over 300 asteroids, and interplanetary dust drag.Researchers even tested to determine if OSIRIS -REx had caused the asteroid to drift off course after it briefly touched its rocky surface. It turned out that this sample collection maneuver had no effect as expected."The OSIRISREx mission provided exceptionally precise data about Bennu's location and motion through space to an extent never before captured on any other asteroid," Lindley Johnson, the planetary defence officer at NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office in Washington.Researchers published their predictions in Icarus. They predict that the asteroid will be very close to Earth in 2135. Bennu is not a threat at this time. However, Earth's gravity could alter the path of the asteroid around the sun and limit its chances of returning to Earth.September 24, 2182 is the most important date for a possible impact. It has an impact probability 1 in 2,700.Enlarge this image toggle caption NASA/Goddard/University of Arizona NASA/Goddard/University of ArizonaJohnson claims that an asteroid this large could strike the planet. Johnson estimates that it could create a crater measuring 6 miles in diameter and causing destruction up to 100 times greater.He says that an object Bennu's in size would have a devastating effect on the Eastern Seaboard states. "We know a lot more about Bennu than we do about other things out there."Johnson states that planetary protectors have so far spotted just half of the asteroids Bennu expects to exist. However, the Near-Earth Object Surveyor Mission, Johnson recently approved, should uncover a lot more.NASA will launch its first mission in November to determine if a spacecraft is capable of hitting a space rock, changing its trajectory, and to test this method of deflecting dangerous asteroid impacts if necessary.The precious rubble sample from Bennu is in transit.Dante Lauretta is the OSIRIS–REx principal investigator at Arizona's University of Arizona in Tucson. "The spacecraft basically is on cruise control right now," he says. "The mission is in excellent shape."Scientists will finally see what they have when the capsule returns to Earth in September 2023. Scientists want to learn more about asteroids' composition, not only because they could pose a threat but also because these rare space rocks were left behind from the formation of the planets in the solar system billions of years before.
