The Get Up crew predicts which team will be able to reach Super Bowl LVII. (2:38).Which team is more likely return to the Super Bowl? Chiefs or Bucs? (2:38).Although the Kansas City Chiefs may have lost Super Bowl LV to the Patriots, they remain the NFL's best team according to ESPN Football Power Index (FPI), projections for 2021.FPI was launched Monday and is a forward-looking project model. It includes ratings, projections, and data for each team. This includes projected win-loss records, percentages of winning each division, as well as projections.FPI's working principle is explained in detail here. Here is a simplified version: FPI calculates forward-looking strength ratings of each team based on several factors including team win total, projected starting QB, returning starters, past performance on offense, defense, and special teams. FPI then simulates the season 20,000 more times to make projections.We made several improvements to FPI's 2021 edition, including an updated expected point added model and a more predictive quarterback rating system. The outputs are the same. We still talk football and the chances for each team's success. This includes 17 regular-season and expanded playoff games.Let's take a look at the FPI projections for 2021 with the top 10 takeaways. We'll begin with the Chiefs.Continue reading:FPI projections for each teamTeam-by-team strength-of-schedule rankingsSuper Bowl favorites are the ChiefsYes, the Chiefs are the Super Bowl champion Buccaneers but they are the best team. They also have the best chance to win the Lombardi Trophy next February.FPI believes that Kansas City would win by 1.3 points on a neutral ground over Tampa Bay if both teams showed up tomorrow for a rematch. The Chiefs would have a minimum of 3.5 points advantage over any other team than the Bucs, Bills, and Ravens.No surprise: The Patrick Mahomes-led offense, which includes Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, leads the way. It is 2.5 points better than Green Bay's next-best offense. Kansas City's middling defense (No. According to FPI, Kansas City's weak defense (No. 11) doesn't pose a problem with this kind of strength on either side of the ball.The Chiefs are No. The Chiefs rank No. 1 seed in AFC (32%), and the Super Bowl (30%).The Chiefs have a 19% chance of winning the Super Bowl. This is slightly higher than the average league favorite going into the season. FPI has produced preseason projections each year since 2015. The 2021 Chiefs are third among the seven favorite teams, after the 2017 Patriots (32%), and 2020 Chiefs (22%). Both of these teams lost in the Super Bowl.You shouldn't forget about the rest of the league. FPI says that Kansas City has a 19% chance of winning the Super Bowl, but that it is not as good as any other team. However, FPI also believes that there is a 4-in-5 chance for a team other that the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. These are the top 10 Super Bowl LV-winning teams:A rematch is the most likely Super Bowl matchupHowever, Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay remains unlikely. FPI believes that there is a 8% chance the Chiefs will face the Bucs once again. This is more than any other possible matchup.Although not quite at Kansas City's level the Bucs remain the favourite in the NFC. They are also the only team with a double-digit chance of winning the Super Bowl. FPI says that the Bucs' strategy of running it back with almost the same team could work. According to FPI, they have a 85% chance of reaching the playoffs and a 15% chance to be crowned again. Two factors are helping to boost these numbers:FPI projects them as the league's best defense. Under Todd Bowles as their coordinator, the Bucs had the sixth-most efficient defense for the entire season. FPI believes they will take another step forward in this season. All of the good returning starters give the model confidence. Tom Brady & Co. will be projected to be No. 5 offense.The AFC is slightly less dangerous than the NFC with two of its top six FPI-rated teams. The NFC South has no other teams that are ranked in FPI’s top 10.These are the most likely Super Bowl LV matchups.Most Likely Super Bowl LVI Matchups AFC NFC 4% Chiefs 49ers 44% Ravens Buccaneers 33% Chiefs Rams 33% Chiefs Seahawks 33% Browns Buccaneers 33% Bills Packers 22% Bills 49ers 22%The difference between the Packers without Aaron Rodgers and the Packers with him is... everythingThe Green Bay Packers are clearly Super Bowl candidates. FPI rates them as the fifth-best football team and the fourth best chance of winning it all with a mere 6% chance. They are returning the 2020 MVP, and they had the league's most effective offense last year -- even better than Kansas City.FPI didn't always promise Green Bay that they would. The Packers' projections changed as Rodgers' future was in jeopardy over the summer. Green Bay's chances of making the playoffs would have plummeted from 70% to 24% if Rodgers had opted to retire, while their Super Bowl chances would have fallen from 6% down to 0.2% if Rodgers had stayed on.Although the Browns and Ravens are both contenders, they can hurt each other's chancesTwo major Super Bowl threat cities are featured in the AFC North: Cleveland and Baltimore. Although the impact isn't huge, each team would be better off without the other. The Browns and Ravens are fourth and sixth respectively in FPI rating, which is basically talent level. However, they rank fifth and seventh in their chances of reaching the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.They must play each other twice and compete for the same divisional title, which are both limiting factors in winning total and the chance to earn the AFC's top seed. Although Kansas City is unlikely to win, the Browns and Ravens still have a chance of winning it.Baltimore has a well-balanced team with a projected offense, defense and special teams. Each team ranks among the top 10. FPI, however, is positive about Cleveland's offense. It ranks third in the league behind Chiefs and Packers, but ahead of the Bills. However the Browns have the 18th-best defense.Baltimore is the clear favorite for the division title: 43% to 40%.Which team is more likely to select No. Which team is most likely to pick No.Since 2018, we have been projecting preseason chances of getting the top draft picks. However, no team is more likely to leave the year with the No. The 2021 Houston Texans are the top pick at 24%. This is more than the 2020 Jaguars who started last season at 23%, and ended up winning that No. The No. 1 pick. (Hey, it worked out for them because Trevor Lawrence was available.FPI believes Houston is more than a touchdown better than any average NFL team playing on a neutral ground. FPI also believes that the Texans have the worst offense as well as the worst defense in the league. FPI assumes that Deshaun Watson won't play for the Texans in this season. In lawsuits, twenty-two women claimed that Watson sexually assaulted or engaged in inappropriate sexual behavior during massage sessions.The Lions are next in line to be drafted No. The Lions are the most likely team to be drafted in 2022 NFL Draft with a 15% chance. Next, the Jets (10%) and Jaguars (8%) follow. Eagles (7%).49ers are the narrow favorite in NFC West strong NFC WestFPI's top 10 FPI teams, the Rams and 49ers, are represented in the NFC West. The Seahawks and Seahawks are the Rams and 49ers, respectively, while the Cardinals (21st) are not necessarily an easy opponent. San Francisco is the favorite, despite the Rams being FPI’s top team. It is slightly.Chances for NFC West Teams to Make the PlayoffsGet a chance to win a divisionReach Playoffs 49ers 33%/68% Rams 29%/64% Seahawks 28.8 Seahawks 28% Cardinals 63% 9% 32%Why? It all comes down to the schedule. Despite their strength, the 49ers have one of the weakest schedules in the league (SOS rank 29th). The strength of the schedule is more important than the division in a 17-game slate. Based on last year's standings, San Francisco's three games are against the Eagles Bengals Falcons and Falcons who each rank 24th or worse FPI. The Cardinals, Rams, and Seahawks are all in the top half for the most difficult schedules.Based on the assumption that Jimmy Garoppolo will be the starting quarterback, the 49ers projection is made. This decision is based upon two factors.Garoppolo is widely believed to be the favourite over rookie No. Trey Lance, the No. 3 overall pick entering the season.The 49ers would lose their projection if Lance was made the starter or partial starter. This is because the model assumes Lance to be a bit worse than Garoppolo. Lance beating Garoppolo would indicate that he is comparable to Garoppolo and a downgrade may not be wise. Garoppolo was therefore chosen as the starter.It's not about winning the most closely contested division. This is the NFC West's strength: Three of the four teams have a 37% chance of reaching the playoffs. There is even a 3% chance all four will make it.Cowboys lead NFC East weakWashington won seven games to win the NFC East title last season. FPI still has mixed feelings about the division one year later. Dallas Cowboys are the only team with a positive FPI rating in the division, making them above average. They are at +0.7, meaning they would be more than one point ahead of an average NFL team.The Cowboys have a chance to win the division with the return of quarterback Dak Prescott and an improved offensive line. Washington is second, even though it is the reigning champ. Ryan Fitzpatrick has made a significant improvement at quarterback. Eagles (11%) and Giants (15%) are close behind.FPI believes the division is not much better. This is reflected in an extreme result: Only the NFC East has a simulation with a champion of five wins. The Eagles won the title at 5-11-1 in one of our 20,000 simulations. This doesn't sound even close to a real record.Can the Colts weather the storm with Carson Wentz out of the picture?The Colts bet on Wentz's bounce-back season when they traded for him. The Colts must keep Wentz's foot well while he recovers. He will likely miss the start of the season.It is a downgrade to not have Wentz: FPI's predictive rating system for quarterbacks believes that backup Jacob Eason is about on par with Wentz in 2020's (poorly) projected season. This model predicts Wentz will improve significantly from last season, but not to the same extent as pre-2020.FPI allows Wentz to play in Week 1, but gradually increases his chances of playing until Week 8. This is in order to manage the uncertainty surrounding Wentz's return.play 1:34 RiddickThe Colts will host the Seahawks in Week One, before heading to Indianapolis to face the Titans. Even without Wentz the forecast for this stretch is much better than you might think. The Colts win an average of 2.2 games and only 1 in 20 chance that they start 0-5. These numbers assume that Wentz will play in at least one of these games, especially the latter.FPI's projections of the Colts don't look bad. They have a 44% chance of winning the AFC South (second only to the Titans), and 59% chance to make it to the postseason. It could get worse for a team that has quarterback uncertainty.Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson are facing long odds in their rookie seasonsFPI assumes that the current starters for their respective teams are two rookies, the Jaguars' Lawrence or the Jets' Wilson. It isn't very optimistic about their prospects. FPI's rankings show that the Jets and Jaguars are ranked at Nos. 29 and 30.FPI isn't necessarily negative about rookie quarterbacks, but this isn’t their fault. The rest of the roster is also important. In these cases, both quarterbacks will face below-average pass defense and will both be trying to offset their teams' defenses which rank among the bottom six of FPI.Bears and Broncos discuss scheduling extremesA true NFL fan knows that relying on previous seasons' records to determine strength of the schedule is foolish. Teams' abilities and capabilities change so much year-to-year that it is difficult to gauge the talent of a team from a single season.The traditional method of looking at the average win totals for all teams' opponents is not enough. However, this approach has its limitations. For instance, every Chiefs opponent's winning total is low because it must play the Chiefs (division rivals twice as much!). ), and every Texans opponent is exaggerated for the same reason. FPI can reconcile this issue to calculate a more precise SOS. The Bears have it tougher than anyone in 2021.First, the NFC is playing nine road games this season so it was expected that a team from the conference would be in the top 10. Chicago has eight games against the top 10 FPI teams: at Rams (at Browns), at Bucs (vs. 49ers), at Seahawks (vs. Ravens), and then a home/home match with the Packers.Denver is at the opposite end of the spectrum. While the Broncos must see Mahomes twice and the Chiefs once, they only play four top-10 FPI team and get an extra home game because they are in the AFC. Eight games are scheduled against FPI's 10 worst teams in Denver: at Giants, Jaguars, and vs. Jets, Eagles, Lions, and Bengals play in the Jets' home-and-home matchup with the Raiders. These are the Broncos first three games of this season. It is a straightforward slate.You can find the complete strength of schedule rankings right here.
