Francois Balloux, University College London Genetics Institute director. His research focuses on reconstruction of epidemics and disease outbreaks. He led the first large-scale sequencing of the SarsCoV2 genome with his colleague Dr Lucy van Dorp. He became a prominent scientist during the pandemic and describes himself as a militant corona centralist on Twitter.Do you think a new type of concern is the greatest threat to this pandemic's resolution?In a long time, we haven't had one. These four types of viruses are all new in 2020's second half. It is important to remember that viruses change at a rapid pace.Alpha was the result of an unexpected event: a sudden accumulation mutation. One plausible hypothesis is that Alpha was born from the infection of someone with immunocompromised or who had been infected for a long time. The gradual accumulation of mutations is what led to the development of the other three concern variants (Beta and Gamma),It is not always easy to predict.It is extremely difficult to predict shocks like the Alpha variant. It is possible to predict that more mutations will appear, and that the virus will drift over time. Vaccinations will become less effective.Sage papers suggested that there could be a deadly variant. Other scientists believe that the virus is at its peak and that it can no longer coexist with humans.It is important to weigh the uncertainty of predictions against their likelihood. It is extremely unlikely that a lineage will emerge that is 50 times more deadly than the one we have now. Because there are 200 respiratory viruses and many people get infected regularly, I can say that. This kind of sudden increase in mortality has never been seen before. Although it is possible, you might have a greater chance of winning the lottery jackpot multiple times.What place does the emergence and distribution of the delta and alpha variants fit on your winning measure?Thats such a difficult question. It's similar to asking how likely someone is of winning the jackpot, but without knowing the number of numbers on the ticket.Although the Alpha and Delta versions of the virus emerged, they were clearly winning combinations of mutations. However, we know that no other transmissible viral lineage has been discovered, despite millions upon millions of infections and an influx of new mutations.A mutation that allows the virus to escape vaccines is another concern.We have sequenced over two million virus samples and probably know all of the possible mutations. We know that vaccine escape won't occur after just one or two mutations. It will take an accumulation of these mutations to produce the right combination. It will take time for everyone to be protected and vulnerable. We will have the time to improve the vaccines.A vaccine-escape variant could infect people who have been vaccinated much more easily. However, it would not negate the protection against severe diseases and death that the vaccine and prior infection provide.What do you think about vaccinating teenageds?This is the most important question. There are passionate people on both sides. There are people who feel passionately about both sides, but there is not much data. Heart inflammation is a problem in younger men who have received mRNA vaccines. A possible solution is to give teens only one dose. Most side effects have already been reported after the second dose. A single-dose regimen has not been approved or tested.You stated that psychosomatic long-Covid cases make up a substantial portion of your caseload.Post-viral syndromes can result from infections like Covid. Although I don't want to be insensitive, I am surprised that there isn't a correlation between the severity of the disease and the severity of the follow-up symptoms. People with severe cases of tuberculosis and influenza should expect to take longer to fully recover. Sometimes, recovery is not complete.It is important to remember that a serious infection can take up to three months to heal.A mild infection can complicate the situation. Although post-viral symptoms may occur, it seems unlikely that they would be common. Although some cases may be psychosomatic, it doesn't make the suffering any less real or lower the cost for society. All diseases are real, regardless of their root cause.Mental health is an important part of both good and bad health. Unwellness can be caused by the fear of something happening. This is evident in the fact that over 30% of those who participated in the Pfizer vaccine trial's control arm reported feeling tired and headaches, even though they were not injected with vaccines.Did you have a bad experience with Covid? Does this change your opinion?When I think of public health issues, I try to minimize my personal experience. Despite this, I'd be considered to have long Covid since six months later my senses of taste and smell are still not fully restored. We need a clear definition of fitness that indicates whether you have regained your full health. It is important to remember that if you have a serious illness, don't expect to be fully fit in three months.Your Twitter bio says you are a militant corona centralist. What does that mean?The pandemic was polarizing from the beginning. Some believed we should just let it go or take it on its chin, while others believed we should fight to eradicate it from all corners. This war has lasted 16 months, and it's pretty toxic. Both of these scenarios are extreme and unrealistic. I believed that careful mitigation would be able to keep the pandemic under control until vaccinations were available. A few countries, including Denmark, Norway, and Singapore, have made it this far.Scientists are supposed to adjust their conclusions as new evidence is presented. Are you concerned that scientists from both sides have maintained their opinions despite the mounting evidence?Although it is self-serving to claim they don't change their minds, I do. Bayesian brains operate in a Bayesian manner. Priors influence how we view new information. It is important to not have too many priors. Scientists need to be open-minded and willing to accept new information. Engage with new evidence. Dogmatic thinking is dangerous.This issue is magnified when scientists speak directly to the public, such as right nowScientists were not asked much before the pandemic. We were often listened to politely, but slightly bored, and were seldom asked questions. People are now more reliant on scientists' words, making it harder for them to change their minds. Although scientists are not known for changing their opinions on Covid, few do. However, scientists who do change their mind often find it difficult to be accepted by the public.Neil Ferguson was criticised for his prediction of 100,000 cases per day following the lifting of restrictions on 19 Jul.Neil is my boss for five-years. Although his predictions were pessimistic, he is not a critic. You should be cautious if you are giving government advice.Can you define scientific populism?The public's mood has changed as the pandemic progresses, and it has become more depressing and fearful. This has led to a market for doom and gloom. It's just as bad as the initial super-optimism. Stay at home for 2 weeks. If you have a mild illness, or wear a mask. Then it will all be over. So, I have kind of captured the market. This is because understanding is key to empowerment.You have stated many times that the pandemic would be over by 2021. Are you still adamant about this statement?It all depends on how you measure it. The pandemic will be over when Covid-19 does not cause more deaths than other respiratory viruses. This will occur first in countries like the UK, which have been privileged enough to receive vaccine coverage. I expect it to happen by the end of next year.
