Make sure you practice a lot in our mock draft lobby as you prepare for fantasy football 2021.Stephen Covey, an educator published "The 7 Habits for Highly Effective People" in 1989. It sold more than 30,000,000 copies and became the first audiobook to exceed 1 million copies in American publishing history.Matthew Berry, then a young man, had his first fantasy football draft five years earlier. Don Smith, my first commissioner, shook me hand that day and said, "Welcome, draft day." It's the best day of year.This is 100% true, as I've learned over the past 37-years. Another thing I discovered is that it is not only the most enjoyable day of the year but also the most important. A strong draft is essential for a successful fantasy season.ESPN offers fantasy football for free. ESPN has more people playing on ESPN than any other site. Create or join a league in the No. 1. Fantasy Football game Register now for a free accountSince that first draft, I've participated in thousands of drafts across multiple sports over the past four decades. There were some great drafts and others that weren't so great. However, I learned something from each one.As I look back at all these documents, I also think back to 1989. With apologies for Mr. I am sorry to Mr. These are the seven habits that make drafters highly productive.Habit 1: They spend a lot of time preparingIt doesn't have to be obvious, just because it seems obvious does not mean it isn't true. Draft day is a reflection of many aspects of our lives, but it's perhaps the most important: What you put into it will determine what you get. Preparation is important, but you must know what you are preparing for before you do.This starts with understanding the rules and then, most importantly, finding the best way to use them. How do you score? This will obviously impact the type and ability of players you want to target. Do you prefer half-point or full PPR? Full PPR meant that eight of the top ten RBs in fantasy points per game had at least 25% of their fantasy points from receiving last season. Are there any premium scoring options for tight ends? Are there points for first downs For long punts? Don't be silly. Once, I was a part of a punter league. I crushed it like a grape, thank-you very much.How big is your roster? How can you get free-agent players into your league? You can take a little more risk if there is a budget for free agents. If you have to replace someone, you will still have the chance to draft them all. If it's a waiver system it may be harder to find the hot free agents. This is especially true if they allow you to hold the top pick for several weeks. You'll have to pay more attention to depth during the draft. Is there an IR spot in your league? How many? You can use IR spots to make it easier to find talented, but injured players.These questions will help you to build your roster, which will play a crucial role in your draft-day success. As you begin to evaluate players, it is important that you consider how players were acquired throughout the season. Are you able to find consistent production at different positions throughout the year? You can add more "fliers" to your roster if you are able to do so. You'll need solid middle-of the-road players to fill in for deeper leagues where there is less free-agent talent.When will your playoffs begin? How many teams make it to the playoffs? This year's 18-week season will be a change for many leagues. Many leagues will also switch when their playoffs begin and how many teams are in the final.Drafters who are good at drafting also consider the platform they are using. Although we wish you and your team were playing on ESPN or the ESPN Fantasy App for the most part, it is important to remember that the default rankings in draft rooms can greatly influence the draft. Many draft participants panic and choose the highest-ranked player. You can identify players who are too young, low-ranked, or inefficiently drafted by comparing your rankings to the default ranks on any site you use.If you are familiar with the players in the league, you can make notes about their tendencies. This one is always looking for buzzy, young players while the other one keeps a tight end.Make sure to mock draft, especially if you know where you are going. Do as many as possible. What happens if Travis Kelce is your opponent in the first round of the tournament? You might consider a modified "Zero RB” approach, or going RB-heavy. What happens if Patrick Mahomes is drafted early? Are you the last league member to have a quarterback? You'll be more comfortable adapting on the fly if you have more options to choose from when you see your team turn out.Habit 2: They determine the relative depth of every positionIt's not enough to have an opinion about every player. It is important to know the value of each player relative to other players and how that position relates to your roster requirements. You think QB is the most important position? If you are part of a superflex league with 14 teams, no. They get moving quickly after that.Drafting is more than just about collecting the best players. The goal is to build a roster using finite resources. There are only so many spots. You need to understand how difficult or easy it will be for players to be replaced during the season.Here is a quick overview of my thoughts on the positions for this year.The position of Quarterback is again extremely deep. However, the key is to find a quarterback who adds value to your team with his legs. Eight of the top 10 quarterbacks ran for at least 200 yards last season. Seventeen of them had at minimum 15% of their fantasy points from running. Consider the following QBs who "popped" in recent years as elite fantasy options: Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert (334 yards rushing, 5 rush TDs in 15 last season) all have an additional dimension to their fantasy value.The draft makes running back difficult. Because of the depth at WR, we prefer running backs over wide receivers at this year's top rankings. You might be wondering what depth means.Here are the 2020 running back and wide receiver scoring leader positions:Rank FPTS Declination Rank FPTS Declination RB5 258.9 WR5 281.5 RB10 218.8 15.6% WR10 218.4 9.8% RB15 203.2 11.6% Wr15 236.8 6.8%Take a look at the dip in RB5-RB10 compared with that of WR5-WR10. It's quite significant, right? But I hear ya. A one-year sample doesn't mean much, right? However, this 2020 trend is in line with the previous decade.Rank Avg. RB and WR Scoring Leads (2010-19). FPTS Decline Avg. FPTS Decline RB5 281.0 -- WR5 2990.0 -- RB10 229.4 18.4% WR10255.3 12.0% RB15 204.0 11.1% WR15 233.5 8.5%The 2010s saw a 18.4% drop in total points between RB5 and RB10, while the drop from WR5 or WR10 was only 12%. This difference is important when you decide which position to target in your first pick.Wide receivers have become more important as running backs are scarce. What does this mean? Although the supply of players scoring 180+ points is growing, unless your league has increased its roster slots, it does not mean that there has been an increase in demand.WR Scoring Thresholds Past 3 Seasons Season 200 - PT scorers 2018 22 32 2019 25 34 2020 27 37WR2s, which are the players drafted as the 11th-20th receivers on the board, tend to be safer and have a higher value than RB2s. From 2018 to 2020,...18 out of 30 WRs drafted within the WR11-20 range returned WR2 values (60%), while nine of the 30 returned WR1 values (30%)14 out of 30 drafted RBs in the RB11-20 range returned RB2 values (47%), while six of thirty returned RB1 values (20%)60% of all receivers drafted within the WR2 range have returned WR2 value in each of the three previous seasons. In contrast, the rate for running backs has never been more than 50% in any season. You were half as likely to find a breakout rookie WR1 in WR2 than to find one in RB2. It is a steady edge. It's better to pick an RB1 then add some WR2 types.If it comes to tight ends, I want to either be really early or very late. Take a look at this:PPG Gap at the TE, Past Seasons Season BetweenBetween TE1 & TE4TE4 and T15 2017 4.6.3.3 2018 4.5.5.0 2019 1.5 5.9 2020 8.8.2.8 Minimum 8 GamesThe average PPG difference between TE1 and TE4 since 2017 has been 4.9 points. It's 4.3 from TE4 to TE15. This means that you have an advantage if you get one of the top four men, but not as much if one gets one of those remaining top 10 guys. This year I want Travis Kelce and Darren Waller, but not George Kittle. You can also dip in the Kyle Pitts/T.J. If you strongly believe in Hockenson/Mark Andrews/Logan Thomas, I'm fine with that. If not, I'd rather wait to be the last person in my league to grab a tight finish and try to find Robert Tonyan or Logan Thomas this year. Are there any other candidates? Irv Smith Jr. Adam Trautman Cole Kmet, Anthony Firkser and Hayden Hurst are some of the candidates. Austin Hooper will also have a better season than people think.Habit 3: They adhere to the one secret to fantasy footballFantasy football is fundamentally about minimizing risk and giving yourself best odds of winning on a weekly basis. That's all there is to it. It's that simple. This is the simple, yet often overlooked approach.Every draft pick, waiver, trade, possible trade, start/sit decision, and so forth. Everything. I cannot predict the future. You can't either. You can't do it alone. You can only minimize risk, maximize your chances of success every week, make the best decision you can, and then let the chips fall as they may.Only one QB has thrown for at least 30 TDs each of the last two seasons. Russell Wilson is the only one who has thrown for 30 TDs in each of the past two seasons. He's done it in four consecutive years. What is the most likely outcome?The Chiefs and Buccaneers are the only two NFL teams that have been in the top 10 for pass percentage over the last four seasons. What's the best thing for Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady, with most or all of their offensive starters returning from last year?Robert Tonyan had almost as many touchdowns (11) as he had career receptions (14) in 2020. Michael McLoone-USA TODAY SportsRobert Tonyan scored 11 touchdowns in the last season. Only three other tight ends have scored as many touchdowns in consecutive seasons over the past 15 years: Julius Thomas, Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. Tonyan did it on just 52 receptions. In 1991-92, Falcons WR Michael Haynes was the last NFL player to score double-digit touchdowns with fewer than 60 receptions. What is most likely to happen next?However, the most likely outcome doesn't necessarily mean that it will happen. It simply means that it is more likely than not to happen. That's all we have to ask. You'll win more if you play the odds than you lose. When you're evaluating players and building your team, this is what you should do. Remember, fantasy football is fundamentally about minimizing risk and giving yourself the best chance to win every week. Ask yourself: What's the most likely thing to happen?Habit 4: They use ranking in context and flexibilityYou will have a set ranking system when you draft. These rankings are helpful but should not be relied upon as a guideline. After you have your first five players, it's all about building your roster based on the positions you need, the risk you've taken, and how the draft is going, taking into consideration all of the factors that we've discussed.Play for FREE! Play Now! Play NowThis is a statement I make as someone who spends a lot of time on his rankings. However, no list can nail end-of season value, especially when you consider weekly variance.DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett were Seattle WRs last season. Metcalf was the WR7 and Lockett the WR8, respectively, separated by only 5.9 fantasy points. It doesn't really matter which one you get, right? Let's look closer at the seasons they had.Metcalf: 8 games of 18+ points (50%), 11 with 12+ points (69%), and 3 below 9 points (19%)Lockett: 5 Games with 18+ Points (31%), 7 Games with 12+ Points (44%), 7 Games below 9 Points (44%)Metcalf scored more games with 18 or more points than Lockett with games of at least 12. Lockett was equally likely to score 12+ points than he was to score less than 9. Metcalf was more volatile than Lockett last season. He scored 46 %(!). Only three games accounted for all of Lockett’s fantasy points. He won those three weeks but there were seven weeks when Lockett was not as good. Even though their rankings were accurate and they placed right next to each others in the end-of-season rankings respectively, Metcalf was far more valuable because of his consistency over the season. It wasn't close.DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett (left), accumulated fantasy points in different ways in 2020. Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY SportAlthough it may seem obvious, certain players are drafted early because they have a high likelihood of producing. Any NFL player can have a huge fantasy game if they are in the right situation and on the right team. We want to be sure they have it every week. They are more likely to have it than they are not.These players are rare, so they are why they go early in drafts. However, they understand the difference between players who are ranked high due to consistency and players who are ranked highly (at least by some) due to perceived upside. Early in drafts, I seek out as solid a production as possible. Too many drafters chase the wrong way too early. I want a high floor.Consider Nick Chubb's entry into last season. Kareem Hunt is not a sexy player and does not play a significant role in the pass-game. He was a strong offensive lineman and a run-oriented playcaller, and had already produced the year prior, when Hunt played the last eight games. Nick Chubb was a starter.2018 Week 7 (post Carlos Hyde trade). RB15 in the PPG2019: RB11 PPG2020: PPG7Since taking over in Cleveland, the lowest Chubb has finished per-game is RB15. In those three seasons, Chubb averaged 19.4 touches per match and had at least 16 touches in 32 games (84%). Although Chubb is not a sexy selection, it's unlikely he will ever deliver a top-five RB team season. However, his floor should not be overlooked. As was the case last season, when Kenyan Drake (and Miles Sanders) were drafted ahead of Chubb to ensure they would deliver a full season.Habit 5: They are focused on winning weeksESPN's survivor pool has returned! Get $7,000 worth of guaranteed prizes by competing! Play for freeAlthough it's simple, many people forget fantasy football is a weekly sport. Using the above example, they see Metcalf was top-eight WR in 2020 and Lockett is also a fine drafter. This is a mistake, because almost half of Lockett’s production was derived from three games. You may argue that you have won the three games.This is IF you actually started him. Big if. Take into account his 3 weeks before that 53-point win at Arizona in Week 7. In Week 4, he had a bye week, followed by 4 catches of 44 yards and 2 catches of 39 yards. Since Week 3, no scores. In that week, he averaged fewer than five goals per game. While I would guess most of them started him, I am willing to bet that some didn't.That's the most important part. It doesn't suffice to have many players. It is important to understand WHEN to start them.It's easy to start your Nick Chubbs. Your first five picks should be Nick Chubbs. These are the players you will start every week, barring injury or a bye.What about the rest? When I reach the middle of my drafts I stop looking for players who can consistently perform at high levels. They're gone. Now I want players that could be an elite option at any position in any week. I believe I'll have a chance of seeing it happen.This is what I refer to as the "Never James White Rule".James White is a solid enough fantasy player. Along with the rest, White did not perform well last season. White is ranked 21st in total points and 22nd in PPG over the last two seasons among all RBs who appeared in at least 24 games during that stretch. It's pretty safe, right at the edge of RB2 territory. White only has one in this span -- one! -- game with at most 16.5 fantasy points.65 RBs are currently playing multiple games that have at least 16.5 fantasy point during this stretch. This includes Jamaal Williams (6), Jeff Wilson Jr. (4), Giovani Bernard (4), Tony Pollard (4), Tony Pollard 4), Latavius Murray (4), Boston Scott (3), and DeAndre Wash (3).James White has received more receptions than carries five times in the past six seasons and has only reached 15 touches per game six times during his career. Winslow Townson - USA TODAY SportsRankings are a guideline, but they don't necessarily reflect the reality of a full season. Consider Nyheim Hines or Jamaal Williams as examples of "players you draft in the later rounds". Hines was RB25 last season on a points per-game basis. Williams was RB34. Hines did have some big games but there was no rhyme or purpose to them. He had 1.4 points the week after his 27.3-point win. Williams knew exactly when the big games were coming, while Williams didn't. In Weeks 7/8, Aaron Jones was out. Williams scored 21.4 points and 18.2 points, respectively. Alvin Kamara missed two games in 2019, and Latavius Murray averaged 34.4 points per game and 31 touches per match. You knew that Murray should be started.When you fill out your bench, it is important to consider the quality of players on the waiver wire. Now, don't go crazy. If you are confident that you will be able to find viable production on waiver wire during bye week or in the event of injury, drafting a lot of boom-or-bust players is a smart move. These upside players won't be expensive to draft. These guys will generally be ranked lower in the pre-draft season-long rankings then they will be in the weeks you will need them. White is not an option, as he has no pathway to elite roles and will never feel comfortable starting. Tony Pollard is cheaper, despite the fact that he is a Ezekiel Elliott hammy injured away from being in the top five.Habit 6: They adapt easily and trust themselves more than others.You should watch, read, and listen to as much as you can before you draft. This includes all summer. There is no offseason. This will allow you to form an opinion about every player. It doesn't take much to learn every stat or breakdown every play. But you should have a general idea of how you feel about the player and what value you place on him. Mike Tyson says, "Everyone has an idea until they get punched in their mouth."Matthew Berry's RotoPass Want to create custom ranks for your scoring system? Need assistance with lineup setting tools, season-long projections, and in-season trades. The Ultimate Fantasy Football resource is what you need. RotoPass gives you access to many top fantasy football websites for a low price. We are glad to have you. Matthew BerryYou never know what you can expect in a draft. You might see extreme drafts and drafters with completely different values to you. This means that players you didn’t expect are available. You might even find someone drafting right in front of your rankings from ESPN.com, laughing while they draft the player that you love, Berry!This last one might be unique to me.However, the most effective drafters don't have a hard-and-fast strategy. You can be prepared by doing the work, mock drafting, and being flexible. Your draft will be adaptable and won't be dictated to you by anyone.Habit 7: They view the draft as the first step to successDraft day is important, but it doesn't have to be the only important day. Your draft doesn't need to be a success. It's highly unlikely that you will. The draft is the foundation of your fantasy football season. Instead of rushing for the quarterback, grab another running back. You can trade your surplus. Trust me, another lower-tier quarterback is still available in the next round.This is in line with my previous point about not worrying too much about rankings or ADP and aiming for upside. You'll likely lose some of these guys along the way to glory. Six of the twelve ESPN playoff players who were rostered last year were waiver-wire picks. They were led by Justin Herbert and James Robinson, with some Myles Gaskin and Chase Claypool. Only Alvin Kamara (and Davante Adams) were drafted in the first 5 rounds. It happens every year.Fantasy season is a continuous work in progress. This means that you must not only acquire players via draft but also trades and free agency. It's about how you use them. To win the championship, you will need to make in-season roster decisions. This is the story of "The 7 Habits for Highly Effective In-Season Management".This column is available in the ESPN Fantasy Football magazine.
