The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released new guidelines on masking for fully vaccinated people against covid-19. They recommend that anyone living in high-transmission areas should wear masks when they are outside public spaces. This was after the CDC received new data regarding the Delta variant of coronavirus, which is the most transmissible strain to date. It suggests that even vaccinated people can transmit the virus to others.AdvertisementThese recent developments cannot help but raise a question: Can we now contain covid-19 before it reaches almost everyone in the world? If not, how can we accept that fact?Although vaccines can significantly reduce the spread and damage of Covid-19, they are not perfect.Just this afternoon, some of the data used to inform the CDC's new guidance were made available to the public. The Washington Post published leaked documents from the CDC that discussed it last night. The CDC determined that Delta is more transmissible that the original coronavirus strains that were widely distributed last year. It also makes it more transmissible that other known contagious diseases like chickenpox. The CDC believes that people who have been vaccinated with Moderna or Pfizer mRNA vaccine still have substantial protection from Delta-related illness (around 80%) as well as very high protection against severe illnesses (up to 90%). The CDC suspects that vaccinated individuals who become infected with the coronavirus can produce as many as unvaccinated. This would mean that if they are infected they could spread the virus to others. They are still less likely to spread the virus than people who have not been vaccinated.These conclusions are not necessarily definitive. The CDC estimates a lower reproduction rate for Delta (also called R0) than other countries like the UK. Based on PCR testing results, some scientists have already questioned the CDC's confidence in the possibility of transmission from vaccinated persons. The key point is to emphasize that vaccinated individuals are still better off than those who have not been vaccinated in every metric. According to CDC analysis, the risk of contracting any form of infection from Delta is eightfold lower and the risk for serious illness or death is more.However, scientists were already skeptical about the possibility of putting the genie back in a bottle after the discovery of Delta and other alarming variants.Covid-19 is likely to be around for a while, but vaccines will make it manageableResearchers with the World Health Organization, which is leading the current pandemic effort, warned that vaccines alone would not be enough to eradicate covid-19. This warning was made even though it was late last year. Just this week, U.S. government scientists discovered that about a third white-tailed deer from several states had antibodies to the virus. This suggests past exposure. This is not a worrying finding, as the deer did not seem to become ill from the exposure. However, it suggests that there will be many ways for the coronavirus to circulate around the globe.AdvertisementNearly 90% of the more than 100 infectious-disease researchers and immunologists who surveyed covid-19 experts in February 2021 agreed that it would be an endemic, or a disease that is present at least once per year, according to Nature. While there are still groups that advocate Zero Covid, which is the elimination of all cases in a particular area, scientists have spoken out about their belief covid-19 will continue to be a common cause of human illness, just like other infections that have become endemic.Of course, the devil is in all the details. A disease that is endemic does not necessarily mean it isn't serious. Malaria, which is still endemic in the tropical regions of the globe, has been responsible for more than 430,000 deaths worldwide in 2017. Despite the absence of a vaccine, we have been able to decrease the spread of malaria through insect control and treatment programs in recent years. High vaccination rates have made it less common for other highly contagious and endemic diseases like chickenpox in the U.S. It is possible to do this with covid-19.AdvertisementWe still need to buy time for higher vaccination ratesOne world in which most people have been vaccinated against covid-19 (even with Delta) will see far fewer people being seriously harmed or dying than the one we've seen over the past year. Although high vaccination rates won't prevent transmission, they can help to control the spread of the disease and reduce the number of cases within the community. This will allow us to prevent the unavoidable scenario that more evasive strains could emerge that could seriously infect and even kill many people who have been vaccinated. Fortunately, this is not happening at the moment.AdvertisementHowever, 28% of the world's population are currently considered to be partially vaccinated and 14% are fully vaccinated. There are still too many areas in the U.S. with low vaccination rates, which will allow Delta to spread like wildfire. Yesterday, the U.S. reported its highest number of cases worldwide. This is an egregious distinction that it has held onto for much of the pre-vaccine era. Although hospitalizations and deaths won't rise to the same levels as they did earlier in the year, they are still increasing. People have died, and will continue to do so unnecessarily, just as they did before.People who have been vaccinated are naturally concerned about their safety and the health of those around them. There has also been speculation about booster shots. Although boosters might be necessary in the future, particularly for those with lower immunity, such as the elderly and immunocompromised people, the biggest barrier to turning the tide against covid-19 are not the unvaccinated. No matter how many op ed columns wish it so, herd immunity has not been achieved, even worldwide. Even if Delta does a rapid burn through the U.S., as it appears to have done in India and the UK, there is no guarantee that covid-19 will be preserved.AdvertisementThe latest surge in vaccine mandates has prompted a renewed push for them. Although the U.S. may not pursue a national mandate, and may have limitations in its ability to do so, more businesses and government departments are supporting them. Mandates are just one aspect of getting people vaccinated. More work will be needed to raise rates if they do come.Although most people will be exposed to covid-19 at some point, it doesn't necessarily mean that everything is beyond our control. Even if covid-19 wasn't present, we can still reduce its spread through masks and simple measures such as staying home if sick or wearing a mask while out. It is possible to slow down its spread and protect high-risk groups such as the immunocompromised. Although Covid-19 is here to stay, the extent of its harm remains up to us.
