It's official. A state will hold an election to decide whether it recalls its governor midterm for the fourth time in American history. The long-awaited recall election for California's governor is scheduled for Sept. 14. 46 candidates, including Gavin Newsom, have officially qualified to run. Recent polling has been the most interesting development in the race. The race is tightening after the recall was uncompetitive for many months.There hadn't been any recall election polls in over a month, until last week. We have received two polls since then and both show Newsom at risk of being recall. A survey by Emerson College and Nexstar Media found that 48% of California registered voters wanted Newsom to remain in office, while only 33% wanted him to be recalled. A poll by the University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored with the Los Angeles Times revealed that 50% of likely recall voters wanted Newsom to remain in office, while 47 percent wanted him to be removed. These polls were both within the margins of error and significantly different from the May and June surveys that showed the recall effort trailing at least 10 percentage points.This unusually timely election could have a significant impact on who casts a vote. The UC Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll demonstrated why. Republicans were more likely than Democrats and independents to declare they would vote. Eighty percent said that they are certain they would vote. This compares with just 55 percent for Democrats and half for independents. According to pollsters' findings from early May and late January, Newsom was opposed by 3 percentage points. However, the spread among registered voters was wider at 51 percent who were against him, compared to just 36 percent who were in favor. Despite being only one-quarter of California's registered voters, Republicans are so enthusiastic about this race that they account for roughly one-third the likely electorate.Unexpected results or lopsided electorates can be caused by irregularly timed elections. For example, a recall election for the governor in September of an odd-year might produce unexpected results. There is one reason that this might not be the case in this race. California has extended its pandemic-inspired electoral-law changes, which require that ballots are automatically mailed to all registered voters until 2021. Although mail elections don't necessarily help the Democratic Party in any way, studies show that they increase turnout. This could protect Newsom from an environment where only his most passionate opponents would bother to vote.FiveThirtyEight Politics PodcastIt is tempting to blame COVID-19 for Newsom's troubles since the pandemic was instrumental in launching the recall effort. Newsom is currently considering whether to impose restrictions across the state to combat this highly contagious variant of COVID-19. Los Angeles County already has an indoor mask mandate. The governor has also had disputes with teachers unions and school administrators over the reopening of schools, and many Californians are still frustrated by the states continually changing vaccination-distribution plan. Newsom's handling of the pandemic may not be his greatest liability. Berkeley poll results showed that 48% of voters believed that Newsom should be recall because he failed to address long-standing issues such as homelessness and income inequality. Only 44% agreed that Newsom should be removed from office because he exceeded his authority in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic (44%).So while California voters might be dissatisfied with COVID-19 conditions, other problems in the state may also be troubling them. The pandemic might not be the only reason for the results we've seen at the polls.Related: California Voters Should Prepare For A Recall Election Read More Related: California Voters Should Start Preparing For A Recall Election Read more.Newsom, for his part, is portraying the recall as a contest between himself and a rash Trump-supporting Republican (for example, the governor tried to blame the increasing number of COVID-19 case on Republicans and the misinformation about vaccines by the conservative media). This strategy could be complicated by a July 12 ruling by a judge that Newsom will not be listed on the official recall ballot as a Democrat. Californians know that Newsom is a Democrat. However, having his party affiliation in black and white might have helped him in the margins of this blue state.Newsom has not been disappointed by recent developments in the recall. It is important to note that his efforts to dissuade other prominent Democrats from running for recall appear to have paid off. Only nine of the 46 candidates to succeed him are Democrats, and none are well-known politicians. There are 24 Republican candidates in the race to replace him, along with two Green Party candidates and one Libertarian Party candidate. In the unlikely event Newsom is recall, it's very likely that a Republican will win his replacement (the second question of the recall ballot).Which Republican would be the most likely to become California's next governor? Recent polls show that conservative talk-radio host Larry Elder is the most popular (16 percent per Emerson and 18 percent per Berkeley). The second tier includes John Cox, a former San Diego mayor, and Kevin Faulconer, a perennial candidate. They each received 6 percent in Emerson's survey and 10 percent respectively in the Berkeley poll. Even though reality-TV star Caitlyn Jenniferner received a lot media attention, she barely registered in either poll. The race is still fluid at this point with the majority of voters (53 per Emerson, forty per Berkeley) still not deciding on Newsom's replacement.That question will be raised only if Newsom is recalled. Newsom is in real danger according to the latest polls, but he's not in the same troubled region as Democratic Governor. Gray Davis was in the same position as in 2003 when Californians voted 11 points to recall him from power. A number of surveys conducted at the same time during that election cycle showed Davis in poor health. His approval rating was in low teens and the vote to recall him won by 20 points or more. Californians, on the other hand, are more likely to retain Newsom and tend to be more pleased with his job performance than they are disapproving of it (among registered voters) Emerson and Berkeley polls placed Newsom's job approval at approximately 50 percent and disapproval around 42 percent, respectively.Newsom still has a lot to do in order to increase Democratic interest in recall voting. If he fails to do so, a rare off-year electorate could be Republican-leaning enough not to remove him from office.Confidence Interval: Will the California Governor. Gavin Newsom to be recall? FiveThirtyEightAre Americans worried about inflation? FiveThirtyEight
