Researchers at the University of East Anglia (Earlham Institute) believe that easing restrictions on Covid-19 could open the door to new, vaccine-resistant viruses.Today's article warns against easing Covid-19 restrictions too soon.It describes the virus' current state of affairs and how it could evolve to more transmissible forms.Researchers fear that new variants of the virus could become more deadly, more resistant to vaccines, and more dangerous for children as well as vulnerable groups like transplant patients.Professor Kevin Tyler, UEA's Norwich Medical School's lead author and editor-in-chief of Virulence, stated that "Over the last 17 months, economies and education have suffered tremendously because of the restrictions imposed to stem the spread a pandemic.""Vaccines have not weakened the link between mortality and infection, but they shouldn't be used to justify broad policy changes in countries that are experiencing an exponential rise in infections.Advertisement"This is because the majority of the world's population have not been vaccinated and even countries that offer effective vaccination programs, a large percentage of society, especially children, are still not protected."Relaxing restrictions increases transmission and allows for the virus population growth, which boosts its adaptive evolutionary potential. It also increases the chance of antigenic drift (vaccine-resistant strains) emerging.Simply put, limiting the spread Covid-19 in any way possible reduces future deaths and slows down the pace at which new variants are created."Successive SARS-2 variants, such as the Alpha or Delta variants have replaced each other since the outbreak."We must act quickly and decisively to slow down the pace of new variant emergence. We need to reduce the number of infected persons, including children, with vaccines and other public health policies.AdvertisementCovid-19 is not recommended for children in most cases as the risk of them falling ill with serious complications is low. New strains of Covid-19 may emerge, which may make it more difficult to prevent children from becoming seriously ill."In other words: a policy that relaxes restrictions while children aren't vaccinated risks inadvertently choosing for more virulent variants that can infect children and cause more problems in vulnerable populations."Children could be at greatest risk as they are the only unvaccinated group. However, there's no guarantee that the virus will not infect children. Data shows that the virus is more likely to be found in younger age groups."Only when a large percentage of the world's population has been vaccinated or has developed immunity to infection can we relax any other social measures.Professor Cock Van Oosterhout from UEA's School of Environmental Sciences said that he was the co-lead author. He is also an evolutionary biologist."On the human side of the equation, the arms race can be fought with vaccines and new technology like the NHS Covid-19 app and our behavioral change. But the virus responds by adapting and evolving."Unless we can reduce the size of the virus's population, it is unlikely that we will be able to win this arms race."But, given that the infection rate now is almost the same as during the first wave of the virus, we are basically 'at par' with it.As with other coevolutionary arms races there are no losers.This is what evolutionary biologists mean by coevolution being a "zero-sum" game. You cannot suddenly lose your mind in the middle an arms race. This gives your opponent, the virus, a huge advantage. We must keep doing what we've been doing for 18 months, especially in countries where there is an increase in the number of people infected.Many governments are moving towards Covid-19 management by allowing public health measures to be left to individuals."During the exponential transmission of viruses, we need a mandatory, ongoing public health policy. This includes social distancing as well as the requirement to wear facemasks in crowded indoor areas such shops or on public transport.He said that "our current vaccination programs alone will not end this pandemic, and scientific evidence suggests we can only start to relax social restraints when the R number drops below one."Prof Neil Hall (co-author) and director of Earlham Institute (EI) said that "as long as there is a large number of unvaccinated persons around the globe transmitting the virus to us all, we are all at risk.""High numbers of Covid-19 patients increase the risk that the virus will become more virulent, transmissible or evade vaccines. We must continue to use public health measures in order to reduce transmission rates. It is important to live with caution. If we ignore global health policies that have shown to reduce infection, the virus can adapt further.When weighing the benefits and risks of vaccinating young children, it is important to also consider the effects on the wider society. It seems that the current method of protecting young people is to allow them to develop herd immunity by infecting themselves. We give the virus the upperhand and prolong the pandemic, increasing the economic burden on the healthcare system and economies."COVID-19 adaptive mutation during the pandemic -- Implications for new SARS-CoV-2 varieties on public health policies" is published in Virulence, July 27, 2021.Researchers at UEA collaborated with colleagues from Norwich Research Park at the Earlham Institute to create the article.
