The night before the House GOP voted to dismiss Rep. Liz Cheney, the House GOP voted to replace her as its No. After her repeated criticisms of former President Donald Trump, Illinois Rep. Adam Kinzinger was enjoying a moment on Twitter. He called Kevin McCarthy, House Minority Leader, an employee of Donald Trump. Kinzinger then tweeted that he would be ashamed if he were McCarthy and the No. 2 Republican, Rep. Steve Scalise. He then got into a fight with Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz. This was despite not mentioning the federal investigation into Gaetz for possible sex trafficking.AdvertisementThe next morning, he was still fickle when I asked him if he expected similar consequences for any statements he had made. He had changed from being uneasy about Trump's statements to being one of the most vocal anti-Trump Republicans over the past few months. He was among 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Trump for the second time and was the first to demand the invocation of the 25th Amendment.AdvertisementAdvertisementSubscribe to the Slatest Newsletter Get a daily email update with the latest stories. Signing you up was not possible due to an error Please try again. To use this form, please enable jаvascript. Email address: I would like to receive updates on Slate special offers. You agree to our Privacy Policy & Terms by signing up. Thank you for signing up! You can cancel your subscription at any time.He said that they have not given any [punishment] Marjorie Taylor Greene and Gaetz. Let's see.Kinzingers' response was more formal, a few months later, after McCarthy warned Republicans they would lose their remaining committee assignments if she offered Speaker Nancy Pelosi a Jan. 6 select committee seat.AdvertisementKinzinger said to reporters, "Who gives a damn?"McCarthy and Kinzinger have not spoken in a while. Kinzinger did however speak with Pelosi Sunday when she offered him a place on the Jan.6 committee. Its first hearing is Tuesday. Kinzinger stated that he accepted the invitation with humility and would work hard to uncover the truth and hold those responsible accountable for the attack.This party-bending decision in such a partisan moment is, to put it mildly, very unusual. It is so unusual, it is hard to understand why Kinzinger does this when so many Republicans who once criticized the former president are now in line. It is so unusual, it is quite natural to ask the following question: What's Kinzingers political calculation?AdvertisementAdvertisementKinzingera, a straightforward conservative vote for the House GOP under Trump, has made himself a target by speaking out in the manner he did against Trump, McCarthy and other House GOP conference members. His conference members want him to be punished. McCarthy called Kinzinger and Cheney Pelosi Republicans. A former Trump official has also jumped into the Republican primary. Trump clearly wants Kinzinger to go.Kinzinger has a few reasons to not give up. First, if the Republican candidates to him don't coordinate well they could divide up all the Republican opposition to Kinzinger. He could then survive. It has also been a lucrative fundraising opportunity for him to turn against Trump. His campaign had just over $3 million cash in hand by June 30, while Catalina Lauf, his most prominent opponent and Trump administration official, had just $140,000.AdvertisementKinzinger has no control over his fate. However, Illinois Democrats could decide to cut up Kinzinger's district and make it available for redistricting. Pelosi praises Kinzinger as an Air Force veteran, Lieutenant Colonel in Air National Guard, and welcomes him to the committee, but the greatest threat to Kinzinger's career is likely from the Democrats.AdvertisementIt's not that Illinois must cut one district because of population loss. The party relies on New York and Illinois to gerrymander aggressively in order to provide support for the Democrats House majority. Kinzingers Northern Illinois district is ideal for slicing. Its liberal parts could be used by Democratic incumbents to take out a Republican nextdoor, while its conservative rural parts could be incorporated into the districts of Republicans they spare.AdvertisementKinzinger stated that he intends to run for House reelection. However, he said that if Kinzinger is drawn out of a particular district and there is no chance to run for the House again, he would consider running for another office.One of the most disconcerting reasons Kinzinger has come out so strongly against Trump (after voting in 2020), is that his district has a good chance of being eliminated. So why not publicly distance himself from Trump's devotion as he prepares to run for governor in a blue state.AdvertisementHowever, I find that a bit too cynical. Even in a blue state like this, there is a lot of opposition to your party. This support would still be needed in general elections if you are able to get through the primary. Kinzinger isn't equipped with a golden parachute like other anti-Trump Republicans (or at the very least, will call out Trump). Utah Senator Mitt Romney, a wealthy man in his 70s who was a presidential nominee, is rich. He can accept that he will never be a two-term senator. Fred Upton and Peter Meijer both hail from Michigan, and both voted in favor of impeachment. Upton is a former chairman of a committee. If they lose the congressional primaries, they will not be starving to death. Liz Cheney's father was vice president.AdvertisementIf Kinzinger is stripped of his conference membership, his congressional nomination or a congressional district, he doesn't have any royal privileges. He does have his freedom. I don't mean this in a patriotic, chest-thumping way. Kinzinger has been able to express his honest opinions about Trump's attempts to reverse the election. Now he is in a more prominent position to do so. What is his political angle? Is this his political calculation? I would have to quote him and say "Who gives a damn?"
