One of two things can lead to a college sports conference realignment wave. The first is organic. A few schools begin to talk and realize that they share common interests and have some cultural similarities. The Big East was born in 1979. It grew over time into a popular basketball league that also plays other sports. In the 1990s, the Big Eight and the top half of Southwest Conference joined hands to form what became the Big 12.AdvertisementA second way to kickstart conference realignment involves one or two schools lighting a stick of Dynamite and throwing it through the college sports collective window. This is a better way of describing what is happening between three powerful entities, the University of Texas, University of Oklahoma and the Southeastern Conference.AdvertisementAdvertisementSooner or later, both Texas & Oklahoma will move to the SEC from the Big 12 league they founded. Last week it seemed likely when word spread that UT was and OU were considering joining the SEC. Nobody denied this. It is now almost certain, however, as the Big 12's two most powerful schools have informed the league that they will not extend their media rights agreement with the conference beyond 2025.AdvertisementThe Sooners and Longhorns will soon be leaving. They believe that the eight Big 12 schools remaining will prefer a settlement to end their relationship before they become embarrassment to spend four years as conference realignment cuckolds. The two largest brands in the conference are serving as lame ducks. They will cause a cascade of changes in college sports when UT and OU go. All sports talk radio hosts from Morgantown to Lubbock have the ability to speculate about these changes, and some may even be right. Perhaps the Big 12s remnants might add BYU to their ranks, which is currently an independent university! Perhaps the ACC will step up its efforts to annexe Notre Dame. Perhaps Iowa State will be accepted into the Big Ten! Details are always open to debate and can be dissected. Message boards will continue to live in their golden age.AdvertisementThis is not the fault of Oklahoma or Texas, but it does not mean that anyone else should be unhappy about its effect.However, what is good for message boards may not be good for college sports. There's nothing to be excited about the Sooners and Longhorns' upcoming move. It will be a boon to a few schools, but it will also serve to cement some of the worst elements in college sports in deeper ways than ever before. It will result in a less enjoyable experience for many people beyond Norman and Austin. However, athletes and fans may find they are no better off in SEC than the Big 12.Modern college sports are influenced by money. Particularly TV money and, more specifically, football TV money. This was the catalyst that drove a large number of schools to join new conferences in the early 2010s. Nebraska, Maryland and Rutgers joined the Big Ten, Colorado and Utah joined the Pac-12, and Missouri and Texas A&M joined the SEC. Each league was close to launching or expanding its TV network and sought out a presence in areas where cable providers would pay. Money-driven decisions are not a virtue in an industry where labor is often unpaid. However, the last wave in realignment made financial sense. Maryland is not cutting a lot of varsity programs as it did before it joined the Big Ten lifeboat. The media budget for Big Ten schools is now more than $50 million annually.AdvertisementAdvertisementAlthough the moves in Oklahoma and Texas are different, cash is still the driving force. The SEC has just signed a huge TV deal with ESPN that will start in 2024. Either the deal was made with Oklahoma and Texas news in mind or the conference will seek to renegotiate. The SEC could have agreed to split television revenue in 16 ways instead of 14. OU and Texas believe they will get a bigger share of the 16-team pie than the 10-team portion they share in the Big 12. This is even after Texas was granted special rights to its own ESPN-operated TV network, the Longhorn Network. It seems that the math is sound. The Big 12's revenue share is currently around $40 million per school, while the SECs number hovers around $45 million. This is about to increase.AdvertisementThis exodus is different from the 2010 realignment in that UT and OU don't need to chase a few extra million dollars each year. With well over $200million in annual revenue, Texas' athletic department is the most profitable in college sports. Oklahoma is often in the top 10. You'll see that conference TV money is not an important line item in the financial reports of both schools. Both schools have greater revenue sources, including ticket sales and licensing. They would both be among the most successful athletic departments in America, even if they didn't make a dime from their conferences. Each team has enough money to do what they want, regardless of whether UT is spending $25 million to fire its football coach or OU investing nine figures in facility upgrades. Both teams don't have to worry about money. Texas' problems are self-sabotage and internal politics. Oklahoma's view is that winning national championships means playing some defense. While they have the right to pursue more money, nobody can pretend that it will improve anything.AdvertisementAdvertisementThe SEC gets a few things out of this: Oklahoma, Texas and the rest of the SEC see marginal cash flow improvements, and for the Sooners, the chance to lose to the SEC's top team before the College Football Playoff. On the other side, college sports will continue to suffer from instability and regionalization. College sports deserve instability on many issues, such as the player compensation model. But this move will only make matters worse for everyone. It will consolidate power in the South and further regionalize a sport which hasn't felt truly national since USC was creating a mini-dynasty during the mid-aughts. To large swathes of casual fans, the Big 12a league has not won a playoff and only one team (Oklahoma), has appeared in the event will be irrelevant. New fans from the South, Midwest and some parts of the Atlantic coast will find little to no reason to fall in love. Again, this is not the fault of Oklahoma or Texas, but it does not mean that everyone else should be unhappy about its effect.AdvertisementThe status quo isn't special, and the Big 12 doesn't offer much in the way of football properties. It has been around for a while, and it has become a little stale in football, the only sport that determines realignment decisions at this league. A few of the best-known series participants (Colorado, Nebraska) have left the league. It's not like college football needs Oklahoma in order to beat Oklahoma State every year in the bizarrely named Bedlam rivalry match.AdvertisementAdvertisementThe departures of Oklahoma and Texas will affect the quality stories from the lower leagues and the middle class. Iowa State is a historical doormat that hired a smart coach in Matt Campbell a few years back and won the Fiesta Bowl, its best season ever. Despite it being known that many of the biggest sports brands want to hire Campbell, the Cyclones have been able to keep Campbell. This resistance might not be enough when the Big 12s remaining players are reduced to a half power. Many schools will be in similar situations, regardless of how the realignment chips are dropped.AdvertisementAgain, this is not the fault of Oklahoma or Texas. Because college sports fans are used to this, their fans will embrace the change. While there will be disagreements in the family, fans will come to love the new league. It's thrilling to be a part of the best football conference where two blue-bloods will compete in the biggest pond. The game is so dependent on group identity, it's inevitable that the fans follow the leaders.These fanbases won't necessarily be more fortunate in the SEC. The SEC will not make it cheaper to buy tickets if there is an additional $15 million in TV money each year. It will likely lead to a higher viewing experience due to all the money TV partners pay to the SEC. This could be in the form of higher fees for cable providers (who pass on the costs to consumers) or a more expensive streaming subscription. Players, who are the most important part of college sports, will generate more money for their schools and not get any compensation. While the schools may make a point of how iron sharpens Iron and student-athletes benefiting from competing at the highest level, it will not be true. The school-athlete relationship is the same, regardless of how long it takes to get from campus to a conference game. Although it is possible that both programs will be more successful in recruiting by being part of the SEC, both Texas and Oklahoma are already at the top of the elite sports recruiting tier. If they win lots of games, it's not clear how they will rise to the mega-elite level. Oklahoma has this problem. Both schools will have better home games for their fans, but both UT und OU are strong enough to find great games all on their own. The Longhorns already have an Alabama home-and-home.AdvertisementAdvertisementThe most frustrating aspect of this wave is the dollar and cents. College football has been centered on schools making and keeping as many dollars as possible. This is not unusual. It was possible to believe that Texas and Oklahoma had enough financial security to keep the richest schools from interfering with the structures that support the rest of the sport, but that illusion was not true until they started their journey. UT and OU had enough money to operate a Big 12 fiefdom, and the conference went out of its way for them to feel special. The Big 12 has made a federal case about how it might penalize Texas supporters for using the Horns Down gesture. It is also the reason Texas is allowed to own its own television station. It was hoped that schools like Oklahoma and Texas would eventually have enough money to keep the house from falling down. This is the same idea that was behind the attempt to demolish international soccer competition by wealthy European soccer teams earlier this year. However, no one was ignorant about club owners' desire to prioritise their own profits over all else. This same feeling is present now. Texas and Oklahoma don't have enough. What schools do?
