On Monday, Oklahoma and Texas made their first steps toward leaving the Big 12, when their flagship programs informed the conference that they did not plan to extend their grant-of-rights media agreement which runs through June 30, 2025.The move is expected to lead to a major shift in the power structure and organization for college athletics. However, there are two important questions: when and how.ESPN reporters Jeff Borzello and Heather Dinich, David M. Hale and Adam Rittenberg take a look at the current situation and the potential impact of Texas and OU leaving the Big 12.What we know so farMonday's joint statement by Oklahoma and Texas was the first step in the Longhorns and Sooners' quest to join the SEC. The next step would be for the schools to petition the SEC to become members. To make that happen, eleven of the 14 current SEC chancellors and presidents will need to consent to invite them.Texas A&M initially opposed the move but it is believed that enough SEC schools will vote for the addition of the new members. It is not yet known when that vote will take place. Another question is: Would the SEC presidents be open to inviting Oklahoma and Texas to join the Big 12 through 2025?OK, Texas, and Oklahoma received the letter. What now?Two scenarios are most likely: Texas and OU could either stay on through June 2025 or bolt for the SEC in 2022. Each would pay a penalty between $75 million and $80 million. According to one source, if the relationship between the schools and conference deteriorates to the point where it is no longer mutually beneficial, then they may be able to reach a larger settlement. There is also the possibility that Oklahoma and Texas could be freed from the rights contract if the Big 12 dissolves prior to the expiration of the grant of rights contract.What is the reason why Oklahoma and Texas are doing this now?Oklahoma and Texas would have to pay substantial fees to exit the Big 12 before their rights agreements expire in June 2025. Andrew Dieb-USA TODAY SportsESPN sources told ESPN that there were many reasons for this unexpected decision. These include declining home attendance at Big 12 games, recruiting and recent federal court rulings regarding amateurism, name, image, and likeness.Federal tax records show that the Big 12 10-teams distributed $409 million to their members in fiscal 2020. That's approximately $37 million to $40.5 millions per school. This was a slight drop from the $38.8million the league distributed in fiscal 2018. The pandemic caused the decrease.The SEC, which includes 14 teams, generated $768.9million and distributed $45.5 million each to schools in 2020. This number could rise with the additions of Oklahoma and Texas. The SEC would be able to re-enter the negotiations table with ESPN. The SEC and ESPN announced a 10-year agreement in December. This makes ESPN the exclusive rights holder of SEC football and men’s basketball.Sources within the Big 12 claim that Oklahoma and Texas were first warned by a media consulting company in May. They indicated that the league wouldn't have the ability to significantly increase its media rights agreements with Fox and ESPN once those contracts expire. In May, Texas Tech President Lawrence Schovanec stated to the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal that the networks had declined to enter into early negotiations for a new agreement due to the changing landscape in college sports and the changing way consumers watch sports.Schovanec stated to the Avalanche-Journal that "the general result is that at this point, there is so much uncertainty in both the media market and the landscape for college athletics, our partner, ESPN and Fox are not interested in taking preemptive action with regard to our agreement." They recognize the importance and value of our partnership. However, there is too much uncertainty. And they still have four years. We'll just wait until the right time and place are found."According to one source, he heard rumors about Texas leaving the league but didn't see it coming.What happens to the other Big 12 programs?Play 1:16 What would Texas and OU do against SEC competition. Sam Acho is positive that Oklahoma and Texas will be strong competitors in SEC.The future is not looking good for them all. According to industry sources, the SEC's possible additions of Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC might be the first step towards forming a single superconference. This would allow for as many as 60 or as few as 32 teams. In this scenario, the powerhouse teams of the ACC and Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC, and Notre Dame would merge into one entity. These schools would all play one another and no other.Other FBS teams would be dropped to a lower level, which would include some teams from the aforementioned leagues, Conference USA, MAC and Mountain West. Another scenario is the formation of three to four superconferences or an alliance between the ACC and Big Ten or Pac-12 to counter the SEC's increasing strength.The remaining Big 12 teams will have to decide whether they want to continue the league and replace Oklahoma or Texas, or expand. Could Iowa State be able to find a place in the Big Ten? That market is already controlled by the league with Iowa. Is Texas Tech a candidate for the Pac-12? Despite its football ineptness, would Kansas be an attractive option for the ACC due to its basketball heritage? West Virginia has already set its sights on this league. Oklahoma State is another possibility. If the Big 12 collapses, Baylor, Kansas State, and TCU could be even more in trouble.The predictable outcome in the past was for the remaining Big 12 teams, to lure some of the top American teams -- Cincinnati, Memphis and Houston, SMU (UCF) and South Florida. The Big 12's standing is so weak that it may end up being the opposite.What will this mean for the College Football Playoff's expansion?Although it is still to be seen, it is possible that the SEC could have seven teams in a 12-team field if OU or Texas joins the SEC. This includes both their newest members even if they finish 9-3 or 10-2. This scenario could reduce support for the 12-team proposal in a summer where coast-to-coast feedback is sought from athletic directors, coaches and players about expansion.According to one source, they did not believe that the news from OU-Texas would affect the decision about whether or not to accept the 12-team format. CFP executive director Bill Hancock told ESPN Monday that the summer feasibility study for a 12-team playoff proposal was still in progress. CFP's management committee is made up of 10 FBS commissioners as well as Jack Swarbrick, Notre Dame athletic director. It is expected to meet with the 11 presidents/chancellors who have authority over the playoff format in late September.Hancock stated that the timeline had not changed during a phone interview from Tokyo where he is volunteering to host the Olympics. "The conferences continue to gather feedback from their presidents and athletic directors, coaches, faculty, and players."This will increase the pressure on Notre Dame for a conference.Notre Dame will face the "independent question" after it played within the ACC in the 2020 COVID-impacted college season. Robin Alam/Icon SportswireNotre Dame is committed to remaining independent in three areas. Access to the playoff is the first priority, which would be provided by a 12-team system. The ACC provides a home for the ACC's Olympic sports through at least 2036. The third partner is NBC. This means that Notre Dame has little incentive to move even with realignment.Things could change. Is the lure of a new Big Ten TV deal enough to lure you? What happens if the 12-team playoff isn't passed and conference champions are given priority access? Is the ACC signaling that the league, if it doesn't add Notre Dame to its ranks, could collapse? These things are possible but unlikely at the moment.The grant of rights agreement with the league for other non-football activities also means that the Irish are contractually bound to the ACC until 2036. According to the agreement, ACC must be the conference that the Irish attend if they want to join any other conference.It is clear that the Big Ten, Pac-12, and ACC will pitch Notre Dame for affiliation. However, Swarbrick stated earlier this summer that "We are more committed to independence now than ever."Strong administrative ties exist between the Big Ten and the ACC. Jim Phillips, the new ACC commissioner, was a senior assistant athletics director under Kevin White between 2000 and 2004. Kevin Warren, the Big Ten commissioner, is a Notre Dame Law School graduate. He recently hired Barry Alvarez as a special consultant for the league. Alvarez was a former Notre Dame assistant. Gene Smith, Ohio State's most influential athletic director, was a Notre Dame football player.Swarbrick stated this weekend to ESPN, "I like the position we have, but I also recognize that the overall situation is still very fluid."What's the next step for conferences like the Big Ten or Pac-12?The Big Ten has a solid financial foundation and doesn't need to add just for numbers. Some Big Ten administrators are becoming more interested in whether or not the league should aggressively seek new members. In 2023, the Big Ten's TV contract expires.Sources indicated that the Big Ten would likely only consider schools that are members of Association of American Universities. This group of top research institutions is important to Big Ten presidents. AAU membership is available to all Big Ten schools except Nebraska, which was also in the AAU at the time the Big Ten sought the school. Oklahoma is not an AAU member, but Texas is. The only other Big 12 schools that are part of AAU are Iowa State and Kansas. Both the Pac-12 (Arizona Cal, Colorado and Oregon, USC, UCLA. Washington) as well as the ACC (Duke Georgia Tech, North Carolina. Pitt, Virginia) have strong AAU membership. Notre Dame isn't an AAU member but the Irish are the conference’s exception to AAU preferences.What happens to the non-football players in these programs?These moves, and those that will follow over the coming weeks, months, and years, are almost entirely driven by football with basketball taking a backseat in discussions. The majority of the time, the departure talks between Texas and Oklahoma were kept secret by basketball coaches. Several Big 12 and SEC basketball coaches told ESPN that they discovered the news via social media.The non-football team will follow Texas and Oklahoma if they move to the SEC. However, if this is the first step towards superconferences that are not under the control of the NCAA, it's unlikely that non-football would make it that far. The NCAA continues to run and operate the NCAA's men's and ladies' basketball tournaments.Kansas is the best school for men's basketball. It is one of the true bluebloods in the game. It has never been a time in history when one of the few historically elite programs was basically a free agent. This would also be the case if and when the Big 12 dissolves. Baylor, the national champion last season, could also be in danger if the Big 12 falls apart.Since its last phase of realignment, the Big 12 has been the most successful conference in men's basketball. It is now a 10-team league. The remaining schools, especially those with strong football programs, are at high risk of being left behind from a resource perspective.Softball is another sport worth monitoring. As a softball conference the SEC was already a world-class league. It has at least 12 teams reaching the NCAA tournament every year for the past four years, and seven of the top fourteen seeds in 2021. The league boasts nine of the top 14 teams last year and is the dominant softball program in America, thanks to Oklahoma and Texas.What does this all mean for the future NCAA?The NCAA is getting closer to breaking point after a turbulent 17 months. Although many administrators across the country are confused about the future realignment, they seem to all agree on one thing: This is the first step towards a breakaway with the NCAA for power programs.ESPN reported this week that a Power 5 athletic director stated that the NCAA had "essentially collapsed" and that it has not been recognized yet.
