Climate change: Scientists begin to discuss a vital report by Matt McGrathEnvironment correspondent Published 6 hours agoGetty Images image caption Copyright Image copyright Getty Images caption Heatwaves are ravaging many parts of the globe as scientists meet to discuss their reportResearchers are meeting virtually against the backdrop of floods and fires to finish a crucial climate science study.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is currently preparing the most complete assessment of the global heat situation since 2013.The scientists will review their findings with representatives from 195 governments over the next two weeks.Experts believe the report will serve as a wake-up call to governments.The 40-page Summary for Policymakers is expected to play an important role in guiding global leaders to Glasgow in November to address critical climate issues.The IPCC has been the leading platform for summarizing scientific knowledge of the problem, its effects, and possible solutions as the world has warmed in the last 30 years.The report of the panel this year comes as severe weather events have ravaged the US, Canada, Europe, and Asia. More people are asking the question about human-induced climate changes' role in this.What is the IPCC and what does it mean for me?The IPCC was established in 1988. Its mission is to present politicians with assessments every six to seven years about the science, the effects, and the possible options for addressing climate change.As the evidence has grown, the reports have become stronger over the years.Image copyright Justin Sullivan caption: California's drought has caused water levels in Lake Oroville to drop to new recordsIts 2013 assessment stated that global warming was caused by humans since the 1950s.This document set the stage for the 2015 Paris climate agreement.The IPCC has produced special studies that address specific scientific questions in addition to its six- and seven-year assessment.The IPCC published a special report in 2018 on keeping global temperatures rising below 1.5C.This document had a profound impact on a new generation of young people who were willing to protest in the streets for a political solution."The 1.5C report was really helpful for young people to use that science in order to marshal their efforts toward action," stated Ko Barrett, vice chair of IPCC and head of research at US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.Image copyright Getty Images caption"I think the report was a surprise to us all. It had such an effect in getting people thinking, wow, this problem is not a big one in the future. This is what it looks like right now.It is expected that the IPCC's most recent summary of science, due to be published on September 9, will have a significant impact.A few months from now, global leaders will be in Glasgow to discuss how to improve the world's efforts to combat rising temperatures. Many COP26 attendees will need to read the IPCC's report.Richard Black, an honorary research fellow with the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, said, "I think it will be a wake up call. There's no doubt about this.""But then again some of the real-world events we're witnessing around us at the moment are also happening."Does the IPCC only concern scientists?Many people believe that the IPCC is a science platform, but this is not the whole picture.Richard Black stated that the IPCC is actually made up of representatives of 195 countries and commissions the reports from various academic groups."And this is what I think is the most important thing about the IPCC. They are not just a group of scientists who produce a report. Governments commissioned them and they own them. This makes them unique.How does it all work?The IPCC has undoubted power, but it doesn't conduct its own research.The IPCC splits its work into three areas for its assessments. The first is the physical science, followed by the study of impacts and the third on mitigation.The impacts and mitigation studies, along with a synthesis report will be available early next year.Image copyright Getty Images caption: Firefighters battle the Bootleg fire in OregonMore than 200 scientists have been working in teams to review the literature that has been peer-reviewed over the past four years for the publication on physical science.The initial drafts were discussed and commented on by fellow researchers and governments.The revised study received around 75,000 comments after it was written and rewritten.In the coming weeks, government representatives will agree word for word on a final Summary of Policymakers. It will measure around 40 pages."The scientists bring a proposal document, and each line is challenged by the representative of United Nations there. The scientists defend their lines," stated Prof Corinne Le Qur from the University of East Anglia, who was involved in two previous IPCC assessments."Nothing is ever written that isn't scientifically correct." Scientists have the right not to agree with this statement, which makes the documents stronger at the end.The fact that the report is not just one research paper on a topic is what gives it extra power. Reviewers look at all of the research that was done on that particular area."Sometimes, the IPCC is criticised for being focused on consensus. It's been suggested that this can weaken statements," stated Dr Emily Shuckburgh from the University of Cambridge."But the fact it is a summary across multiple evidence lines is extremely powerful and incredibly helpful."What can we expect in the upcoming report?Similar to previous assessments, the focus will be on humanity's contribution to the climate crisis.The authors stated that global warming has been "extremely probable" since 1950s.This will likely to be strengthened, despite objections from some countries.Image copyright Reuters caption Driving through a Nevada wildfire"It will revise the overall attribution statement. Professor Le Qur stated that it will be stronger than the one we had in the past due to the planet's warming."That's going be one of our main points. It will be carefully discussed and scrutinised. It can be assured that it will be examined by the governments.Many participants will be more interested in the future and present than past responsibility.A new chapter will be written on extreme weather in a changing climate.Many people will be more interested in questions like storms, floods, or droughts that have a low likelihood but high impact. This is what has been happening around the globe over recent weeks.Prof Le Qur said, "This time around the governments have asked IPCC to also consider low probability events that could potentially be very damaging.""So, we can expect to get a lot more information. We will get more information about extreme climate risks for the first time ever in the IPCC.Image copyright Reuters caption: The IPCC will also examine the Arctic's state as the climate warms.The summary report will likely contain new information about sea-level rise, the state of Antarctica and Arctic, as well as information about the likelihood of holding global temperature rise to 1.5C by the end of this century.It will evaluate whether governments are meeting the Paris climate pact targets.What could go wrong?The IPCC is attempting a remote approval session for the first time. These meetings last for a week and are often accompanied by intense discussions between scientists and government officials.The stakes for participants are higher than ever with just a few months to go before the COP26 conference on climate change.The scale of the weather-related catastrophes that we see around the globe has made it clear that politicians and the public are more concerned about climate change than ever.All of this will increase the pressure on IPCC. Participants are likely to have many long nights ahead.
