It's possible that the U.S. women's gymnastics team won't win in Tokyo. It could be that they don't win, or it could even be close. What is the matter? What is the story? Where are you?There was no way to know what would happen in the days leading up to this haunted Olympics. How many athletes would be infected with COVID? Would they miss their events? What would cause a person to fail a drug screening? What if there were no Olympics? Because everyone has spent the last four years telling you, even yours, to take it as a given, the one thing that we all accepted was that the U.S. women's artistic gymnastics team, which is led by the greatest gymnast in the world, had a good chance of winning the team gold medal.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWhat has this uncertain time taught us about the inexorable nature of uncertainty? It turned out that I was wrong. Simone Biles and the U.S. team were expected to lose Sunday's qualifying meet. This is where all the medal-winning competitions will be decided. But the scores don't carry over. Instead, I saw the Russian Olympic Committee put on a great show. Then I watched as the Americans, including Biles, became more prominent at each event. Our predictions were wrong! The U.S. finished a previously-unthinkable second by more than a point to the athletes from the ROC. This is no longer America's gold to lose.AdvertisementThe U.S. created the meet on the floor, which is Biles' signature event. Biles has two skills named after her: the most difficult tumbling pass ever achieved in competition, and the U.S. began the meet. While most gymnasts are concerned about landing enough skills on their feet with enough turns and flips, Biles' problem has always been her incredible power. This was more evident than when Biles bounded off the apparatus after her third pass and went out of bounds.AdvertisementBiles suffered a major hit to her usual stellar execution score. While most international elite gymnasts would love a 14.133 score, Biles was disappointed. The meet was also not a great atmosphere from her three teammates hovering around 13.5. This included Jordan Chiles who had difficulty with her third floor pass.AdvertisementBiles' vaulting skills were not much better. She has another signature event where she is the only female competitor and again has two skills named for her. For a safer Chengonly, she opted for the second most difficult vault in the world after the death-defying Yurchenko double Pike. The most difficult vault was the one that was entered at the meet. It was uncharacteristically off-alignment and ended with Biles walking off the landing mat. Because she is the GOAT, she qualified in first place.I used to take everything as a given before this qualifying meet; now, I don't take anything for granted.Plus, this event was even more painful because of the intraspecialist showdown between Jade Carey and MyKayla Skinner for the non-Biles American vault spot. Their scores did not count towards the team total and they could only propel one of them to the final due to the rule that only two gymnasts from each country can compete in any final competition. Carey landed cleaner and Skinner was not allowed to compete in any finals as an independent. This also means that Skinner will not be able to compete in the Olympics, which she won despite great odds with her relentless work ethic and determination. Because she is so polarizing, half of the gymternet is in mourning and half are full of Schadenfreude.AdvertisementAdvertisementSchadenfreude: This was when beleaguered fans from other countries began to understand what was going on. The seemingly infallible United States was falling all over the place. The mood that led to the power events, vault, floor and bars, as well as the balance and rhythm events and bars, was more difficult than usual. Suni Lee's beautiful bar set placed her in second place behind Belgium's Nina Derwael. But Chiles tapped the floor and got out of rhythm, a break that probably contributed to the full-on meltdown that followed, beam. The rising American star was unable to hold her position twice. Biles was, however, nothing but consistent. She again dismounted with too much power, and this time she stumbled so far that it almost cost her the podium.AdvertisementBecause it was normal in elite gymnastics, what happened was remarkable. The favored team had an awful meet and didn't finish on top. However, again the qualifying scores don't carry over so Tuesday's team competition is open to all. This is a broad statement. What about the ROC? Yes, if they can repeat their qualifying performance. China? Yes. Japan? Yes. Germany? Great Britain? Italy? It was before this qualifying meet that I took everything as a given; now, I don't take anything for granted.AdvertisementIt is no longer a foregone conclusion that the U.S. victory has snatched me from what I realized was the hypnotic state in which I have been since Rio. It's almost like I suddenly remembered that gymnastics is not how it works. Humans are athletes, and athletes, especially those who have experienced fear, grief, or compound global trauma, may not be able to train as scheduled. Superfans of gymnastics will be cursing USA Gymnastics Tom Forster, who chose the squad that he did. Skinner would have been able to help the team vault and floor, while Riley McCusker might have qualified as a bars specialist for the final. Everyone is crazy and will continue to be. This is a great squad, but it had a terrible meet.AdvertisementThis U.S. team is, historically and on paper, better than any other. However, being better at athletics does not mean you are in a static position. Even superstardom won't keep you on your feet or in bounds. Although the American women's gymnastics team may lose, it is possible to win. Some psychotic Americans may find the answer to be yes. They should remember how far the U.S. have come. My own gymnastics days were filled with joy when Phoebe Mills reached Seoul 1988's medal podium. This was the first American woman to achieve this feat. (The 1984 Games of the USSR-boycotted do not count. Mary Lou Retton might have been an exception with the Soviet Union present. It's all about the hard truths today.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementLook at this: The U.S. hasn't lost yet. They can still win because qualifying scores don't carry over to finals, as you may have heard. There will be three competitors on each apparatus. All three scores will count towards the total team score, even if someone falls twice, which is not the case in qualifying. The Americans still have time to focus, block out all the noise and return to the arena with their heads intact. Anyone can win a gold medal, even theirs. The biggest surprise of the Games is the fact that more people have won gold medals.
